climate change and ecosystems joanna wibig. changes of timing of phenophases changes in ranges of...

Climate changeand ecosystems

JOANNA WIBIG

Changes of timing of phenophases

Changes in ranges of species and biomes

Biodiversity

Ecosystems productivity

Phenology: the study of the timing of recurring biological phases, the causes of their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic forces, and the interrelation among phases of the same or different species.

Phenology has been in the focus of scientists since the studies of Karl Linné and Robert Markham

Phenology can be divided into:

Phytophenology

Agrophenology

Zoophenology

Spring phases

Summer phases

Fall phases

Annual cycle

Early spring phases (pollination of hazel and coltsfoot) occur now 10-20 days earlier than 50 years ago

Spring phases (birch leaf unfolding, lilac and apple trees in full bloom) now occurs 5-15 days earlier than 50 years ago

The rate of phenophases changes (in days per year) birch leaf unfolding

Phytophenological records in the

Baltic Sea Basin have the

tendency to earlier appearance of

sprong and early spring phases.

These trends seems to be

stronger in the baltic region than

in the whole Europe.

Ar the same time there is tendency

to later appearance of fall phases.

The lenght of vegetation period

defined as a time of appearance

and loss of leaves by different tree

species has been lenghten

significantly.

An average trend of spring phases

is -2 days per decade The fall

phases are later +1.6 days per

decade. The vegetation period

becames longer 3.6 days per

decade.

changes in ranges

(breeding places, wintering

places, migration routes),

changes in migration

timing,

chasnges in breeding

timing,

changes in live length,

changes in productivity.

Birds:

Birds try to winter as

close to the breeding

place as possible, so

their migration routes

became shorter, and

the birds use less

energy for migration.

Greylag goose (gęś gęgawa) from Sweden wintered in

Spain, now most of them winter in the Netherlands.

In the transition period those who choose the

Netherlands use less energy so their chance to

survive is higher.

Cranes (żurawie) wandered to Spain, now nore and more of them winter in Meklemburgia, or even in Poland in Western Pomerania.

Many Polish birds, which wintered in Western Europe

(France Spain) now try to winter in western Poland . At the

moment it concerns single specimen or small groups, but

the tendency is evident.

LEPWING (CZAJKA)

ROBIN (RUDZIK)

It does not mean that warming favours nigrating birds. Inceasing of Sahel region has tremendous and negative effect for enormous amounts of birds wintering on the south of Sahara, because enlarging desert takes away suitable wintering areas. The amount of storchs in Poland in 30 per cent is related to amount of rain in Sahel. In dry years a lot of birds falls on the Sahel, where they stay in their return way to Europe. Similary, it is suspected that climateic changes will have an adverse impact on shore birds (ptaki siewkowe), which breed in Arctic (Syberia) and winter in Africa and have only 1 or 2 breaks in their journey (a few thousands of km!) . Climate changes cause that capturing of food and energy will be more difficult and takes more time.

Timing of migration (measured as a day of arrival to European

breeding places and dates of departure) change with climate

changes.

The majority of species come to breeding places in the Central

Europe earlier during last 20-25 years.

The rate of these changes is strongly differentiated among

species.

Changes in timing of migration

The greatest changes

concern birds wintering in

Europe, the smallest those

wintering in equatorial and

southern Africa. (the changes

are smaller in case of birds

migrating on larger

distances).

The degree of change of arrival date is different for those

coming as first than the last examples of the same

species.

Stork (bocian) 10 days earlier

ArrivalsBarn swallow (jaskółka dymówka)A week earlier

House martin (jaskółkaoknówka )12 days earlier

Skylark(skowronek)11 days earlier

Lepwing (czajka)20 days earlier

Nightingale (słowik rdzawy) 7 days earlier

Cuckoo (kukułka)7 days earlier

Breeding terms for many

species are well correlated

with temperature in thee

time preceding breeding,

the warmer spring the

earlieer breeding.

Climate warming causes

accelerating of laying eggs

for many species, but this

acceleration is different for

different species.

Changes in breeding terms

Earlier nesting– more eggs– better viability

of nestlings – higher reproduction level

Climate changes cause a diminishing of differences in quality of birds in specific species. Those examplares, who laid their eggs later and have smaller hatches (because they were not able to collect food and produce eggs earlier) are now in better position. The differences in the reproduction level among birds of the same species diminish.

Changes in productivity

The amount of food for nestlings change in the breeding season.

The amount of insects especially caterpillars has its peak.

The date of laying eggs was evolutionary adjusted to the peak of food for nestlings.

Birds try to forecast this moment. They evolutionary have got mechyanisms of forecasting on the basis of spring temperature.

That is why terms of laying eggs are correlated with spring temperature. They try to bring forth yopung exactly in time of peak of caterpillars.

Temperature in early spring is a crucialk factor determining the moment of peak of catterpillars. When it is warmer this peak comes earlier.

Because of warming a peak of caterpillars comes earlier. Birds are not able to manage with evolutionary adjustment to new situation. They accelarate a laing eggs time but not enough.

Climate changes disturb this proces , because the thermometers of birds and their food are not identical

Decision rules of insectivorous birds (green line) and insects (red line) according to timing of laying eggs.

Together with temperature rise the insects accelerate their peak in caterpillars amount faster than the birds accelaerate their time of laying eggs. That is why the young birds appear after the peak of caterpillars.

Departure

Distributional shifts are the result of two different mechanisms operating at local scale:

expansion into new areas due to climate amelioration

local extinction, which reduces the distribution

Among non-climatological factors are:

atmospheric CO2 concentration

natural disturbances (floods, wildfires)

land use

habitat fragmentation

absence of suitable habitats due to human activities

lack of hardening lack of winter cooling better conditions for pests lack of snow cover

Disadvantages of warm winters

Thermal factors

Advantages of warm winters

milder winters longer vegetation period

Humidity factors

higher evapotranspiration more precipitation in winter lack of water from snow melting at the beginning of vegetation period lack of snow cover

Light factor

In the Baltic region there is a few tree species which ranges moved to the north and/or higher altitudes.

Beechbuk

Limelipa

Oakdąb

In Scandinavia ranges of beech, lime, oak and spruce have changed paralelly to the cumulative sum of temperature of winter season in the last 8000 year. The contemporary rate of climate change is faster from analogous changes in the past. Spruce

świerk

Holly ostrokrzew

Birch brzoza Pine sosna

Rowan jarzębina

Willow wierzba

In the Swedish part of Scandes mountain range upslope shifts of 100-150 m of birch, pine, rowan, spruce and willow is reported, coinciding with 0.8°C increase in mean temperature since the late 19th century

Currently the naturally-regenerating holly, a good climate indicator, has expanded east and northward of the previously reported natural limit, coinciding with the advance of 0°C January isoline.

Animals generaly copy the changes in structure of the environment; that is why changes in ranges of animal species are parallel to changes in ranges of their food

Changes in ranges of some species can result in extinction of them, because of habitat losses, fragmentation, delays of transformation and so on…

Preparation to winter

Hatching of frogs

Climate-related invasions

The clearest evidence for a climatic trigger for large-scale changes in ecosystem structure occurs where a suite of species with different histories of introduction spread en-masse during periods of climatic amelioration

Wasplike spider, previously restricted to southeastern Europe, in recent decade has expanded its geographical range to the northern parts of Europe, colonizing Germany, Poland, Denmark and Sweden

Among factors causing rapid geographical expansion of wasplike spider are:

increase of numbers of sunny and dry days in summer floods of large rivers in Europe establishment of large open habitats due to

deforestration and drainage

Tygrzyk paskowany

Weather-regime changes are among important factors controlling invasion of parts of Europe (including the Baltic region) by the leaf miner moth – an important pest of horse-chestnut trees.

leaf miner moth horse-

chestnuttree

devastated by leaf

miner moth

Caterpillar nymphs winter on leaves of horse-chestnut lyind on the ground. They can survive enen -25 °C. First grown up individuals appear at the end of April. The eggs are laying singly along main nervation of the leaves. Larvas grow inside leaf blade. Metamorphosis of grown up caterpillars take place inside. It can be even 700 caterpillars. The leaves with caterpillars fall. Trees captured by leaf miner moth have second flowers in the autumn, but there is no chance for fruits. Additionally second flowering weaken trees. They are sick in witer and easy to frozen. In Poland leaf miner moth has usually 3-4 generations during one year.

Changes in biome boundaries

Altitudinal shifts of vegetation are well documented for many parts of the Earth. Higher temperatures and longer growing seasons, associated with climate change, have released new areas for colonization by certain plant species

For the Baltic region one robust conclusion can be drawn:

endemic mountain plant species are threatened by the upward migration of more competitive sub-alpine shrubs and tree species

Higher winter temperatures and frost episodes

Due to winter hardening, changes in mean and minimum temperatures of the coldest month and number of frost days do not increase the risk for frost damage.

Damage occurs during frost episodes when the plants are not adequately hardened, it can happen at any time of the year, but is common after a longer period of warmer temperatures in spring when dehardening has been initiated.

Higher winter temperatures can induce change in plant phenology, as thermal requirements for dehardening and budburst will be fullfiled earlier.

Species that are strongly regulated by light will be less affected than those strongly regulated by temperature.

Heat spells and reduced summer precipitation

Both an increased frequency of heat spells and reduced summer precipitation increase the risk for drought stress.

Soil water potential, ambient light intensity, temperature and wind influence the severity.

Water shortage lowers the transpiration, photosynthesis and uptake of mineral nutrients.

The response is non-linear affected by duration and frequency of drought stress.

The severity of heat spells and drought will increase the risk for forest fires

Changes in autumn and winter precipitation

In areas with an increased precipitation during autumn and winter, the risk of waterlogging will increase.

This can cause anaerobic root conditions and kill parts of the root system.

The plant will become more susceptible to drought stress and attacks by patogens.

Due to climate change, a reduction in snow cover is expected.

In regions with a thin snow cover and low winter temperatures, the soil will be deeply frozen.

Soil frost increases the risk of winter desiccation, occurring when the trees are exposed to higher temperatures in spring increasing transpiration, but the frozen water can not be taken up.

There is evidence of recent productivity increases for ecosystems within or near the Baltic catchment region. Overall growth trends for European forest ecosystems have been positive during the last 50 years.

increased temperatures

the fertilisation effect of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition

management avtivities

increased CO2 level

In some cases, recent climate change may be associated with growth reductions. Dittmar et al. (2003) showed a declining growth trend for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) at higher altitudes during the last 50 years. Correlations with climate parameters suggest that an increased preponderance of wet, cloudy summerscoupled with late frosts reduced vigour and growth for this species. The negative growth trend was most pronounced for the period 1975-1995, even though increasing CO2 levels, N deposition and an extended growing season would all be expected to have positive impacts on production.

Senstivity of growth in Scots pine (left) and Norway spruce (right) in different parts of the Baltic Sea basin compiled from the findings of SilviStrat project (Lindner et al. 2005).Rovaniemi - the northern boreal forestKuopio- southern boreal forests Chorin and Grillenburg temperate forests in northern Germany.

The end