climate change and global health

Climate Change and Global Health

Øjvind LidegaardProfessor

Dept. Obstetrics & Gynaecology

Rigshospitalet

University of Copenhagen

United NationsFramework Convention on

Climate Change

Aim is to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions…

“…at a level that would prevent

dangerous anthropogenic interference

with the climate system.”

Climate change and global health

Four steps

• Realize how profound the anthropogenic climate changes are

• Understand the impact of these changes on global health

• Take advantage of the different roles we have as health professionals

• Act

Earth development 4,600 My

My before present

4600

3500

3000 First life

2500

2000

1500

1000

500 Life on land

0

IPCC. Assessment report 4, 2007, The Physical Science Basis

Earth development 4,600 My

My before present

4600 400 trees

3500 350 fish

3000 First life 300 first ice

2500 250 reptiles

2000 200 dinosaurs

1500 150 mammals

1000 100 flowers

500 Life on land 50 ice again

0 0

Dee

p o

cean

dri

lls

IPCC. Assessment report 4, 2007, The Physical Science Basis

Earth development 4,600 My My 1000 years .

4600 400 trees

3500 350 fish 700

3000 First life 300 first ice 600

2500 250 reptiles 500 Homo erectus

2000 200 dinosaurs 400

1500 150 mammals 300

1000 100 flowers 200

500 Life on land 50 ice again 100 Homo sapiens

0 0 0

Dee

p o

cean

dri

lls

IPCC. Assessment report 4, 2007, The Physical Science BasisIc

e co

res

CO2 in atmosphere through last 400 My

1000

500

1000

3000

23002000

600270

3000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

ppm

www.stratigraphy.org

Icepresent

My

Din

osau

rs

Rep

tiles

Flo

wer

sM

amm

als

Fis

h

Tre

es

Ext

inct

ion

even

t

Mesozoic CenozoicPaleozoicEra

Eon P h a n e r o z o i c

Icepresent

CO2 in atmosphere through last 50 My

600 575525

485425 415 410 405 380 400

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

ppm

IPCC. Assessment report 4, 2007, The Physical Science Basis

My

Development in mammals

Paleogene period (65-23 My BP) Neogene (23 My - now)

C E N O Z O I C E R A Kænozoikum

Antarctic glaciation

Ice free worldSea level 80 mabove present

Paleogene (35 My BP)

CO2 in atmosphere through last 50 My

600 575525

485425 415 410 405 380 400

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

ppm

IPCC. Assessment report 4, 2007, The Physical Science Basis

My

Development in mammals

Paleogene period (65-23 My BP) Neogene (23 My - now)

C E N O Z O I C E R A Kænozoikum

Antarctic glaciation

Ice free worldSea level 80 mabove present

CO2 in atmosphere through last 5 My

390

350

310275

240

100

200

300

400

500

5 4 3 2 1 0

ppm

IPCC. Assessment report 4, 2007, The Physical Science Basis

My

Pliocene epoch (5.4-1.8 My BP) Pleistocene (1.8-0.01)

N E O G E N E P E R I O D

Last time CO2 was at the same high as today.

At that time sea level was 20-30 m above present level, and Tp. was 3.5oC higher

Pliocene (4 My BP)

CO2 in atmosphere through last 5 My

390

350

310275

240

100

200

300

400

500

5 4 3 2 1 0

ppm

IPCC. Assessment report 4, 2007, The Physical Science Basis

My

Pliocene epoch (5.4-1.8 My BP) Pleistocene (1.8-0.01)

N E O G E N E P E R I O D

Last time CO2 was at the same high as today.

At that time sea level was 20-30 m above present level, and Tp. was 3.5oC higher

5oC

CO2 and temperature through last 640,000 years

Holocene

Holocene

Holocene

CO2 and sea level at equilibrium

385385

485

285

385

285

185

025?

0

-100

0

80

25

100

200

300

400

500

35,000 3,500 110 20 0.1 Now-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

CO2 ppmSea level

CO2 ppm Sea level m

Antarcticglaciation

Last timeCO2 was385 ppm

Interglacialperiod

Lastglacialperiod

Pliocene

Pleistocene

Paleogene

Thousand years before present At

equilibrium

Stabilisation of CO2

Holocene

Pre in-dustrialperiod

Climate and health

Health threads by climate changes are primarily a consequence of

• Damages after hurricanes and cyclones

• Homelessness for millions after floods

• Climate refugees, unsustainable migration

• Disintegration of civil infrastructures

• Shortage of drinking water

• Starvation

• Expanding areas of vector-borne diseases

Climate and healthClimate change Health consequence

Temperature rise Tainted food, infections

Sea level rise, flood Injuries, infections homelessness mental disorders,

cholera

More rainfall, flood do

Less rainfall, Drought, reduced agrarian yield, starvation

Changed ocean Depletion of fish stocksstreams New fish stocks

McMichael et al. Lancet 2006; 367: 859-69

Commitment of health professionals

Health professionals have three roles

• They are members of strong professional international networks such as WMA.

• They are professional health managers

• They are citizens as all other citizens

What can and what should we expect from health professionals in their three roles?

Commitment of health professionals

Professional networks

• Information about short- and long term health impact of climate change

• Stressing that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century

• Require immediate mitigation initiatives

• Initiate research in health consequences of climate change

Costello et al. Lancet 2009; 373: 1693-1733

Commitment of health professionals

Health advisors• Information about short- and long term

health impact of climate change• Focusing on initiatives which improve

public health and global climate at the same time (less use of fossil fuel, diet changes, physical activity)

• Disclose personal views on climate change

Costello et al. Lancet 2009; 373: 1693-1733

Commitment of health professionals

Health advisors (cont)• Stress the urgency of political and personal

actions• Professional initiatives of establishing

national networks on climate change and health

• Adapt your institutions to low-energy buildings

• Video conferences

Costello et al. Lancet 2009; 373: 1693-1733

Commitment of health professionals

As member of the general society

• Limiting long distance flights

• Reduce private fossil fuel consumption

• Reduce energy consumption (50%)

• Combine physical activity with personal transportation (e.g. bicycle transportation)

• Learn your children to behave responsible

• Involvement in local initiatives

Costello et al. Lancet 2009; 373: 1693-1733

Which CO2 future?

285 ppmHolocene

385 ppmPliocene

485 ppmPaleogene

Thank you

www.Lidegaard.dk / slides