climate change and new technologies - dräger-stiftung€¦ · new technologies ron oxburgh....

Climate Change and Climate Change and New TechnologiesNew Technologies

Ron OxburghRon Oxburgh

OutlineOutline

uu Time scales for changeTime scales for change

uu The technoThe techno--challengeschallenges

uu The developing worldThe developing world

TimeTime--scales for Changescales for Change

uu The climate The climate –– 380ppm today;@ 1.5 380ppm today;@ 1.5 ppmppm/a /a ⇒ ⇒ approx. 450 approx. 450 ppmppm by 2050by 2050

uu Implementation of new technologies Implementation of new technologies 15 15 –– 25 years25 years

uu Infrastructure Infrastructure –– now optimised to the now optimised to the wrong conditions wrong conditions -- 15 to 40 years 15 to 40 years replacement cyclereplacement cycle

InfrastructureInfrastructureuu Evolved over a period of low energy and low Evolved over a period of low energy and low

natural resource costs natural resource costs ––optimised to other optimised to other factorsfactors

uu Patterns of energy use locked into the Patterns of energy use locked into the infrastructureinfrastructure

uu But infrastructure is replaced over a time But infrastructure is replaced over a time scale of around 40 yearsscale of around 40 years

uu The climate models suggest that if emissions The climate models suggest that if emissions are controlled within 40 years the most are controlled within 40 years the most extreme effects of climate change could be extreme effects of climate change could be avoidedavoided

-- Cars 10 Cars 10 --15 years15 years-- Aircraft 20 Aircraft 20 --30 years30 years-- Wind turbines 25 yearsWind turbines 25 years-- Power plants 40+yearsPower plants 40+years-- Trains 30+ yearsTrains 30+ years-- Electricity distributionElectricity distribution

networks 40+ yearsnetworks 40+ years--Houses 70+ yearsHouses 70+ years

Long Timescales of Infrastructure Change

Means that fossil fuels will be with us for decadesMeans that fossil fuels will be with us for decades

Essential to capture the opportunity of the renewal Essential to capture the opportunity of the renewal cyclecycle

The TechnoThe Techno--challengeschallenges

uu MultiMulti--source biosource bio--fuel liquids at fuel liquids at low energy cost low energy cost –– jet fuel?jet fuel?

uu Energy Storage Energy Storage –– batteries or Hbatteries or H22

uu Low cost PVLow cost PV

uu Coal Coal -- low cost COlow cost CO22 separationseparation–– PrePre--combustioncombustion–– PostPost--combustioncombustion

Biomass Biomass –– Energy from PhotosynthesisEnergy from Photosynthesis

Traditional Biomass Traditional Biomass ‘‘Energy cropsEnergy crops’’

uu BioBio--diesel diesel –– rape, rape, linseed, etc.linseed, etc.

uu Ethanol Ethanol –– sugar cane, sugar cane, corn etc.corn etc.

But But –– energy cost?energy cost?Competition with food?Competition with food?

Energy Ratios of Corn vs. Cellulose Energy Ratios of Corn vs. Cellulose EthanolEthanol

02468

10121416

1 2 3 4 5 6

$20-30

Ener

gy

Units

Cultiv

ation

Ferti

lizer

Harve

sting

Proc

essin

g

Tota

l Fu

el E

ner

gy

Corn Ethanol, $60

Cellulose Ethanol

O/I = 1.2O/I = 10

Ethanol from StrawEthanol from Straw

First Cellulose Ethanol First Cellulose Ethanol Shipment: April 21, 2004Shipment: April 21, 2004

CoCo--production of food and fuelproduction of food and fuel

No all BioNo all Bio--fuels equally good for the fuels equally good for the environmentenvironment

00.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.09

0.1

Ethan

ol (Str

aw)

Ethano

l (whe

at)

Ethano

l (Bee

t)

Biodies

el (rap

e)

Ethan

ol (Us C

orn)

Unlead

ed Pe

trol

Low S

Diesel

Kg

CO

2eq

/ MJ

Data from Elsayed et al 2003

Future Biomass FlowsFuture Biomass Flows

uu ResiduesResidues–– AgriculturalAgricultural

uu Corn StrawCorn Strawuu Rice StrawRice Strawuu Forestry byForestry by--productsproducts

–– UrbanUrbanuu Organic component of Organic component of

urban rubbishurban rubbishuu Grass, leaves and tree Grass, leaves and tree

cuttingscuttings

uu Special crops on Special crops on marginal landmarginal land

uu AlgaeAlgae

uu BioBio--fuel liquids for fuel liquids for vehiclesvehicles

uu Gasification & Gasification & combustion for combustion for power generationpower generation

uu Non fuel Non fuel applications applications e.ge.gmaintain soil maintain soil qualityquality

•• CoCo--production of food and fuelproduction of food and fuel

COALCOALResources of Main Exporters and Resources of Main Exporters and

Importers of oil & gasImporters of oil & gas

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mid E Russia Africa S.& C.Am

China India N.Am

Bill

ion

Tonn

e oi

l equ

ival

ent r

eser

ves

2003

oil

gasEXPORT IMPORT

Oil, Gas and CoalOil, Gas and Coal

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Mid E Russia Africa S.& C.Am

China India N.AmBill

ion

Tonn

e O

il E

quiv

alen

t Res

erve

s

oil

gas

coal

Emissions depend both on fuel and Emissions depend both on fuel and combustion modecombustion mode

00.050.1

0.150.2

0.250.3

0.35

Hard co

al Oil

Coal IG

CC Gas

Gas CCGT

Coal IG

CCS

Hydro

etc.

Nuclea

r

CO

2, k

g/M

J

Carbon Capture and StorageCarbon Capture and Storage

CO2

CO2

Capture

Transport

StorageCOALMINE

COAL

•Capital Cost

•Efficiency Loss

Europe & the Europe & the Developing WorldDeveloping World

Role of EuropeRole of Europe

uu Europe has an excellent engineering Europe has an excellent engineering and technology baseand technology base

uuQuantitatively Europe is relatively Quantitatively Europe is relatively unimportantunimportant

uu Europe has a vital role as role model Europe has a vital role as role model for the developing worldfor the developing world

The Developing World DilemmaThe Developing World Dilemmauu Ambassador BoltonAmbassador Bolton’’s meeting with s meeting with

diplomats from seven countries diplomats from seven countries ––including China and India, excluding including China and India, excluding EuropeEurope

uu ‘‘Notional $50 billionNotional $50 billion’’ to attack global to attack global problemsproblems

uu Chosen prioritiesChosen priorities–– Health careHealth care–– Water & SanitationWater & Sanitation–– SchoolsSchools–– Child nutritionChild nutrition

CLIMATE CHANGE

People and EmissionsPeople and Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0.0 2000.0 4000.0 6000.0 8000.0 10000.0

Millions of people

Gj p

er h

ead

per y

ear

Develop

ed

Emerg

ing

Develo

ping

Poore

st

2002

6.2 B

2050

9.2 B

ConclusionsConclusions

uu Essential to find technologies that:Essential to find technologies that:–– More or less allow the developed world to maintain More or less allow the developed world to maintain

standard of livingstandard of living–– Offer energy sources to the developing world are Offer energy sources to the developing world are

cheaper than emitting fossil COcheaper than emitting fossil CO22

uu New technologies take so long to implement that New technologies take so long to implement that we must start now and incorporate new we must start now and incorporate new developments as they occurdevelopments as they occur

uu All our efforts should be directed at helping the All our efforts should be directed at helping the developing world get their energy cleanlydeveloping world get their energy cleanly

Need for Energy Storage Need for Energy Storage -- Variable Variable Energy SourcesEnergy Sources

On a few occasions each On a few occasions each year there will be year there will be little or no wind at a little or no wind at a time of high demand time of high demand (Fig: 6GW fall over 48 (Fig: 6GW fall over 48 hrs)hrs)

uu ChoicesChoices–– Hydro back up Hydro back up –– very very

fast fast -- ideal (Norway)ideal (Norway)–– Gas Turbine back up Gas Turbine back up ––

effective and least effective and least expensiveexpensive

uu STORAGE STORAGE TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY

6

0

GW

GW

72 hrs

From EON, 2005

Intermittency & Load following problems could be Intermittency & Load following problems could be solved by costsolved by cost--effective electrical storageeffective electrical storage

From VRB Power Systems Inc

Concept of a Redox Flow Battery System (Regenesys Technology)

Fuel cell based; Electrolytes vanadium salts with different oxidation states. 75% efficient; 98% availability; response <5msec; 8 hr storage 2.3MWh. Negligible maintenance; capital cost?

Ireland at present working on a plan to generate half their electricity (2.4 GW) by wind using this technology