climate change impacts in the asia-pacific region€¦ · in the asia-pacific region - outcomes...

Climate Change ImpactsClimate Change ImpactsIn the AsiaIn the Asia--Pacific RegionPacific Region

-- Outcomes from the AIM Model Outcomes from the AIM Model --

The Twelfth AsiaThe Twelfth Asia--Pacific SeminarPacific Seminaron Climate Changeon Climate Change

30 July 30 July -- 2 August 20022 August 2002Bangkok Bangkok

Mikiko KainumaMikiko KainumaNational Institute for Environmental StudiesNational Institute for Environmental Studies

Contents1. Introduction of the AIM (Asian-

Pacific Integrated Model for Climate Change Analysis) model structure

2. Environmental Impacts of projected climate change based on the IPCC/SRES emission scenarios

3 Impacts and effectiveness of

Integrated Assessment Model of Climate Change:The AIM Approach

Mitigation strategy

ofClimate Change

Adaptationstrategy

ofClimate Change

IPCCUNEPOECD

Eco-AsiaIEAAPNEMFWWF

National Government

Private Company

Apply

Chinese Team

Japanese Team

Indian Team

Korean Team

ThaiTeam

MalaysianTeam

Population Model

lifestyle

Land-use modelEnergy Model

Technology

Economic Model

Atmospheric Chemistry

Climate Change

Ocean Uptake

Carbon Cycle

Ecosystem

Water ResourceSea Level

Rise

Agriculture

HumanHealth

GHG Emission

Climate Change

Climate Impact

Model Development

CO2 Emission (Gt-C)19

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

LATIN AMERICANORTH AMERICA

AFRICA+MIDDLE EASTASIA PACIFIC

EUROPE+FORMER USSR01234567

High Growth ScenarioGtC

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

LATIN AMERICANORTH AMERICAAFRICA+MIDDLE EASTASIA PACIFICEUROPE+FORMER USSR

01234567

Low Growth Scenario

GtC

Projection of CO2 emission in the five regionsProjection of CO2 emission in the five regions

Socioeconomic development scenariosfor climate change prediction

Dominance of Economic Value

Balanced Economic/Ecological

Values

Regional Solutions

Global Governance

A2: Cultural Pluralism

B2: Regional Coexistence

population

Economic growthtechnology energy

Agriculture(land use)

Driving Forces

A1: High Growth(A1FI)

(A1T)（A1B）

B1: recycle-based

CO2 Emission ProjectionsBased on SRES Storylines

Car

bon D

ioxi

de E

mis

sions

Inde

x

Year

(1990=1)

A2( Cultural Pluralism)

B1(Recycled-based)

B2(Regional Coexistence)

A1B(High Growth Balanced)

A1FI(High Growth Fossil Intensive)

A1T(High Growth Technology)

0

1

2

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

A1FIA2

B1

ºC

Different development path would Different development path would cause different climate change scenariocause different climate change scenario

1.4 ºC~5.8 ºC

2000 2050 2100

Temperature change between 1990 and 2100

0

0.5

1

Fitte

d pr

obab

ility

and

freq

uenc

y of

occ

urre

nces

1 2 3 4 5 6Temperature change (ºC)

Geometric mean= 2.88 CS.D. of logarithm= 0.346

←5%

1.6

3 C

←50

% 2

.88 C

←95

% 5

.1ºC

Simulated 7 GCMs are GFDL R15a, CSIRO Mk2, HadCM3, HadCM2, ECHAM4/OPYC, CSM 1.0 and DOE PCM

°

1～1.

51.

5～2

2～2.

52.

5～3

3～3.

53.

5～4

4～4.

54.

5～5

5～5.

55.

5～6

B 1 2.0±0.5

A1T 2.5±0.6

B 2 2.7±0.6

A1B 2.9±0.6

A2 3.8±0.8A1F I 4.5±0.9

All 3.1±1.1

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Temperature change (C)

Freq

uenc

y of

occu

rrenc

es

ºC

Climate change in Asian-Pacific countries from 1990 to 2100, increase in DJF

< -

30

-20 ～

-15-5～

0

10～

1525～

30Japan 4.6±9.9%

China 7.2±9.4%

India 3.7±19.5%0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Freq

uenc

y of

oc

curre

nce

Precipitation chang

Precipitation changeTemperature change

<1.0

1.0-

1.5

1.5-

2.0

2.0-

2.5

2.5-

3.0

3.0-

3.5

3.5-

4.0

4.0-

4.5

4.5-

5.0

5.0-

5.5

5.5-

6.0

6.0-

6.5

6.5-

7.0

> 7.

0

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Freq

uenc

y of

oc

curre

nce

Temperature chanGlobal 3.1±1.1 ºC

Japan 3.7±1.3 ºC

China 3.9± 1.4 ºC

India 3.1± 1.1 ºC

e (%)ge (℃)

Wheat productivity change in some countries from 1990 to 2100

Without CO2 fertilization

-100～

-70-70

～-60

-60～

-50-50

～-40

-40～

-30-30

～-20

-20～

-10-10～

00～

1010～2020～

3030～

4040～5050～

Japan 24.3±4.4%

China 33.2±12.5%

India -34.3±16.1%

Canada 90.6±19.8%

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Productivity cha

Freq

uenc

y of

oc

curre

nce

-100～-70

-70～-60

-60～-50

-50～-40

-40～-30

-30～-20

-20～-10-10～

00～1010～

2020～3030～

4040～5050～

Japan -6.5±1.5%

China -5.9±10.6%

India -53.2±19.9%

Canada 29.7±6.9%

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Productivity chang

Freq

uenc

y of

oc

curre

nce

With CO2 fertilization

e (%)nge (%)

A simulation of Malaria epidemic potential

AIM/HEALTH

Change of country population ratio living in Malarial epidemic area from 1990 to 2100

No change0～

55～

1010～

1515～

2020～

2525～

3030～

3535～

4040～

4545～

5050～

5555～

6060～

65

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8

Freq

uenc

y of

oc

curre

nce

Change of percentage (

Brazil 33.6±16

China 17.9±6.7%

India 3.7±1.7%

Indonesia 10.7±4.5%

%) .7%

Impacts of Emission Reduction on

global climate and global economy

Impacts of emission reduction on global climate and global economy in year 2100

Post-SRES

0～0.

50.

5～1

1～1.

51.

5～2

2～2.

52.

5～3

3～3.

53.

5～4

4～4.

54.

5～5

5～5.

55.

5～6

SR ES　　3.1±1.1C

450ppm 1.7±0.38C

550ppm 2.1±0.45C

650ppm 2.3±0.49C

750ppm 2.5±0.53C0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Temperature change (ºC)

(1) Temperature change from 1990 to 2100

A1F I

A2A1

BB2

A1T

750ppm

650ppm

550ppm

450ppm

4.13.6

1.9

0.90.3

2.9 3.3

0.90.6

0.0

2.3 2.3

0.40.3

0.0

1.2 1.2

0.0 0.00.0

0.01.02.03.04.05.0

GDP loss (%)

(2) Percentage reduction relative tobaseline

Frequency of

occurrence

550ppm 2.1± 0.45ºC450ppm 1.7± 0.38 ºC

SRES 3.1± 1.1ºC

750ppm 2.5± 0.53ºC650ppm 2.3± 0.49ºC

Wheat productivity change in India from 1990 to 2100, with CO2 fertilization

-70～

-65

-65～

-60

-60～

-55

-55～

-50

-50～

-45

-45～

-40

-40～

-35

-35～

-30

-30～

-25

-25～

-20

-20～

-15

-15～

-10

-10～

-5-5

～0

0～5

5～10

SRES 　 -34±16%

450ppm -14±5.8%

550ppm -20±6.8%

650ppm -26±7.0%

750ppm -29±7.8%

0.000.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Productivity change (%)

Freq

uenc

y of

occu

rrenc

e

-29±7.8%-26±7.0%

-14±5.8%-34±16%

-20±6.8%

Recovery of economic welfare decrease by climate change mitigation

caused by crop productivity change, India, year 2100

-15～

-14.

2-1

4.2～

-13.

4-1

3.4～

-12.

6-1

2.6～

-11.

8-1

1.8～

-11

-11～

-10.

2-1

0.2～

-9.4

-9.4～

-8.6

-8.6～

-7.8

-7.8～

-7-7

～-6

.2-6

.2～-5

.4-5

.4～-4

.6-4

.6～-3

.8-3

.8～-3

-3～

-2.2

-2.2～

-1.4

-1.4～

-0.6

0.000.10

0.200.30

0.40

Equivalent variation change (%)

Frequency of occurrence

SRES

550ppm

650ppm

750ppm

-6.8±2.0%

450ppm -4.3±0.76%

-4.9±1.1%

-5.4±1.4%

-6.0±1.4%

The AIM as INTERNATIONAL The AIM as INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION PROGRAMCOLLABORATION PROGRAM

LHLH

NIESNIES

ERIERI

IITIITIIMIIM PNNLPNNL

IIASAIIASA

Kyoto UNIV.Kyoto UNIV.

JAPANNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)Kyoto UniversityCHINAEnergy Research Institute (ERI)Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR)INDIAIndian Institute of Management (IIM)Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)KOREASangmyung University (SMU)Korea Environment Institute (KEI)THAILANDAsian Institute of Technology (AIT)MALAYSIAPutra University (PUTRA)INDONESIAMinistry of State for Environment (LH)

AITAIT

PUTRAPUTRA

KEIKEISMUSMU

IGSNRRIGSNRR

AIM/Emission ModelAIM/Emission Model

LHLH

NIESNIES

ERIERI

IITIITIIMIIM PNNLPNNL

IIASAIIASA

Kyoto UNIV.Kyoto UNIV.

JAPANNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)Kyoto UniversityCHINAEnergy Research Institute (ERI)Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR)INDIAIndian Institute of Management (IIM)Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)KOREASangmyung University (SMU)Korea Environment Institute (KEI)THAILANDAsian Institute of Technology (AIT)MALAYSIAPutra University (PUTRA)INDONESIAMinistry of State for Environment (LH)

AITAIT

PUTRAPUTRA

KEIKEISMUSMU

IGSNRRIGSNRR

CO2 from L PS in 2030

0-30003000-60006000-90009000-1200012000-1500015000-18000

18000-21000

21000-24000

CO2 from L PS in 2030

0-30003000-60006000-90009000-1200012000-1500015000-18000

18000-21000

21000-24000

0-30003000-60006000-90009000-1200012000-1500015000-18000

18000-21000

21000-24000

R easonable scale of CDM opportunities for J apan’s technologies in China’s iron and steel industry

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Market

Minimum CO2

S cenario 1

S cenario 2

8%

20%

34%

(Mt-C)

R easonable scale of CDM opportunities for J apan’s technologies in China’s iron and steel industry

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Market

Minimum CO2

S cenario 1

S cenario 2

8%

20%

34%

(Mt-C)

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Market

Minimum CO2

S cenario 1

S cenario 2

8%

20%

34%

(Mt-C)

Sector Sub-sectors LPS covered2000 2010 2020 2030

Power (coal & Oil) 82 111 131 150Power (natural gas) 12 17 20 23Steel 11 17 23 29Cement * 85 98 110 123Fertilizer 31 41 52 62Paper 33 38 43 48Sugar 28 28 29 30

Energy

Caustic Soda 19 21 23 26H2SO4 manufacturing 63 64 66 68Aluminium (Al) 3 4 5 5Copper ore smelting (Cu) 8 9 10 11Lead ore smelting (Pb) 5 6 7 8

Industrial processes

Zinc ore smelting (Zn) 3 4 5 5

Total 383 458 524 588

Sector Sub-sectors LPS covered2000 2010 2020 2030

Power (coal & Oil) 82 111 131 150Power (natural gas) 12 17 20 23Steel 11 17 23 29Cement * 85 98 110 123Fertilizer 31 41 52 62Paper 33 38 43 48Sugar 28 28 29 30

Energy

Caustic Soda 19 21 23 26H2SO4 manufacturing 63 64 66 68Aluminium (Al) 3 4 5 5Copper ore smelting (Cu) 8 9 10 11Lead ore smelting (Pb) 5 6 7 8

Industrial processes

Zinc ore smelting (Zn) 3 4 5 5

Total 383 458 524 588

CO2 emissions in Mt-C from all iron and steel sources , 2000CO2 emissions in Mt-C from all iron and steel sources , 2000

AIM/Impact ModelAIM/Impact Model

LHLH

NIESNIES

ERIERI

IITIITIIMIIM PNNLPNNL

IIASAIIASA

Kyoto UNIV.Kyoto UNIV.

JAPANNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)Kyoto UniversityCHINAEnergy Research Institute (ERI)Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR)INDIAIndian Institute of Management (IIM)Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)KOREASangmyung University (SMU)Korea Environment Institute (KEI)THAILANDAsian Institute of Technology (AIT)MALAYSIAPutra University (PUTRA)INDONESIAMinistry of State for Environment (LH)

AITAIT

PUTRAPUTRA

KEIKEISMUSMU

IGSNRRIGSNRR

Increase in drought risks (2 degree C increase)Increase in drought risks (2 degree C increase)

5060708090

100110120130140150160170

190180

200

%5060708090

100110120130140150160170

190180

200

5060708090

100110120130140150160170

190180

200

%

Change of low flow discharge

5060708090

100110120130140150160170

190180

200

%5060708090

100110120130140150160170

190180

200

5060708090

100110120130140150160170

190180

200

%

Change of low flow discharge

AIM/Material ModelAIM/Material Modelfor economic development and environmental conservationfor economic development and environmental conservation

LHLH

NIESNIES

ERIERI

IITIITIIMIIM PNNLPNNL

IIASAIIASA

Kyoto UNIV.Kyoto UNIV.

JAPANNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)Kyoto UniversityCHINAEnergy Research Institute (ERI)Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR)INDIAIndian Institute of Management (IIM)Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)KOREASangmyung University (SMU)Korea Environment Institute (KEI)THAILANDAsian Institute of Technology (AIT)MALAYSIAPutra University (PUTRA)INDONESIAMinistry of State for Environment (LH)

AITAIT

PUTRAPUTRA

KEIKEISMUSMU

IGSNRRIGSNRR

ChinaChinaIndiaIndia

JapanJapan

•• Country ModelCountry Model•• Computable general equilibrium model with Computable general equilibrium model with

material balancematerial balance•• Recursive dynamicsRecursive dynamics•• Including environmental industry andIncluding environmental industry and

environmental investmentenvironmental investment•• Economic impact due to CO2 & waste constraints, Economic impact due to CO2 & waste constraints,

and recovery by environmental investmentand recovery by environmental investment

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.02000 2005 2010

Year

GD

P ch

ange

[tri.

Yen

at 1

995

pric

e]

GD

P lo

ssG

DP

reco

very

Economic impact due to CO2 and waste constraintsEconomic impact due to CO2 and waste constraints

Target CountryTarget CountryDetailed Model Application (Model A)25 countries

Simple Model Application (Model B)17 countries

Code Country GroupAFG Afghanistan SABRN Brunei SEABTN Bhutan SAFJI Fiji SP

KHM Cambodia SEAKIR Kiribati SPLAO Lao SEAMDV Maldives SAMNG Mongolia EANRU Nauru SPPLW Palau SPPNG Papua New Guinea SPPYF French Polynesia SPSLB Solomon Islands SPTON Tonga SPVUT Vanuatu SPWSM Samoa SP

Code GroupSA South AsiaSEA Southeast AsiaEA Northwest Pacific and East AsiaCA Cetral AsiaANZ Australia And New ZealandSP South Pacific

Code Country GroupAUS Australia ANZBGD Bangladesh SACHN China EAIDN Indonesia SEAIND India SAIRN Iran SAJPN Japan EAKAZ Kazakhstan CAKGZ Kyrgyz Republic CAKOR Korea,Rep EALKA Sri Lanka SAMMR Myanmar SEAMYS Malaysia SEANPL Nepal SANZL New Zealand ANZPAK Pakistan SAPHL Philippines SEAPRK Korea,Dem EASGP Singapore SEATHA Thailand SEATJK Tajikistan CATKM Turkmenistan CATWN Taiwan, China EAUZB Uzbekistan CAVNM Vietnam SEA

AIM/Trend ModelAIM/Trend Model

19952005

20152025

2032

BG

DN

PL

MM

RV

NM

PA

KID

NTJK

IND

LKA

KG

ZC

HN

PH

LTH

AIR

NP

RK

UZB

MYS

JP

NN

ZL

AU

STKM

TW

NKA

ZKO

RSG

P0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16CO2 per capita[t-C/cap/yr]

YearCountry

CO2 per capita

19952005

20152025

2032

BG

DN

PL

MM

RV

NM

PA

KID

NTJK

IND

LKA

KG

ZC

HN

PH

LTH

AIR

NP

RK

UZB

MYS

JP

NN

ZL

AU

STKM

TW

NKA

ZKO

RSG

P0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16CO2 per capita[t-C/cap/yr]

YearCountry

CO2 per capita

0 5 10 100 1000

gC/m2/year

1995

2032

2032

Conventional

Policy

CO2 emission intensity

0 5 10 100 1000

gC/m2/year

1995

2032

2032

Conventional

Policy

CO2 emission intensity

Thank you !