climate-smart agriculture: food security in a warmer and more extreme world

Climate-­‐smart  agriculture:  Food  security  in  a  warmer  and  more  

extreme  world  Led  by   Strategic  partner  

Supported  by  

1.  Warmer and more extreme? 2.  Rising to the challenges? 3.  Linking knowledge and

action?

Global  surface  temperature  change  (oC)  

2003        2006        2009        2012  

1      

0.8      

0.6      

0.4      

0.2  

Why  the  bother  about  warming?  

How  “SkepJcs”  View  Global  Warming  Glob

al  su

rface  tempe

rature  cha

nge  (oC)  

How  “Realists”  View  Global  Warming  Glob

al  su

rface  tempe

rature  cha

nge  (oC)  

droughts    

extreme  coastal  high  water  levels  

heavy  rainfall  events  

warm  spells  or  heat  waves    

Extremes will intensify

local  flooding  

IPCC,  2012  

Munich  Re,  2011  

 Losses  from  weather-­‐related  disasters  have  increased    

   Overall  Losses  Of  which  insured  losses  

   US$  billions  (2

010  do

llars)  

Young scientists may retire before global climate models are good enough for agriculture

“Substantial increases in the reliability of projections from General

Circulation Models (GCMs) are not expected any time soon”

Richard Washington, University of

Oxford

GCM errors were often larger than 2 °C for temperature and 20 % for

precipitation

40,000  downlo

ads  

of  data  in  2012

How can we rise to the challenges?

2.  Climate  informaGon  services  and  climate-­‐informed  safety  nets  

4.  Policies  and  insGtuGons  for  climate-­‐resilient  food  systems  

1.  Climate  smart  technologies,  pracGces,  and  

porJolios    

Meridian  Ins+tute  2011  

ProducGvity  

MiGgaGon  

AdapGve  capacity  

Climate-­‐smart  agriculture  (CSA)  

•  Synergies  and  trade-­‐offs    

•  Principles  and  guidelines  

Developing  climate-­‐smart  technologies:    coffee-­‐banana  intercropping  

1.  Understanding  and  improving  technology  

2.  Policy  engagement  

One  women’s  present  is  another  

women’s  future  

1.  IdenJfy  climate  analogues  

2.  Farmer-­‐to-­‐farmer  visits  

3.  Local  adaptaJon  planning  

1 January 2013

2.  Climate  informaGon  services  and  climate-­‐informed  safety  nets  

OpportuniGes  for  managing  the  whole  food  system?  

– BePer  food  security  early  warning?  –  Informing  earlier  intervenGon?  

– Grain,  fodder,  seed  banks?  

Agriculture  Insurance  Company  of  India  

12  million  farmers  &  40  different  crops  insured    

weather  index  for  a  crop  in  an  area  

technological  innovaJons  to  

generate  weather  data  

•  2012  plans:  

–  Reconstruct  historic  weather  

–  Rainfall  predictability  in  S.  Asia  

–  Climate  informaJon  &  advisory  service  case  studies  

–  South-­‐South  knowledge  exchange  STATION   BLENDED   SATELLITE  

Improving  climate  informaJon  services  

3.  Low  emissions  development  

Store C: trees, forest, grassland and soils

Lower GHG /kg food Reduce land cover

change

Cocoa  intensificaJon  on  56,423  ha  =  151,700  ha  forest    

 Sustainable  intensificaJon  

Heterogenous  landscapes  Mixed  farming  systems  

Methods  and  equipment  

Capacity  strengthening  

Protocol  for  GHG  emissions  in  smallholder  systems  

Alternate-­‐Weang-­‐and-­‐Drying    (AWD)  

30%  water  

25-­‐50%  GHG  

Without  compromising  yield  

What  are  the  incenGves  for  miGgaGon  acGons?  

4.  Policies  and  insGtuGons  for  climate-­‐resilient  food  systems  

Three examples: analysis and engagement

•  Work with negotiators on the issues holding back agriculture in the UNFCCC

•  Establishing a global index of a countries readiness for climate-smart agriculture

•  Helping design Nigeria’s climate-smart agricultural policy

Research-­‐informed  development  

Science-­‐policy  plaJorms  

Index-­‐based  insurance  

Climate  informaJon  services  

Climate-­‐smart  

technologies  

Local  adaptaJon  

plans  

•  Learning sites •  Multiple partners

Scaling up •  Policy •  Private sector •  Development

initaitives

Climate smart villages

h]p://www.agtrials.org/    

20 crops

2483 trials

Agtrials:  Assembling  public  data  in  a  common  portal    

Going  publi

c  with  data  

Focusing  on  gender  and  social  differenGaGon  

The  Work  

In  conclusion:  Ø Climate smart portfolios Ø Climate information and

safety nets Ø  Low emissions options

and financing Ø Policies for resilient food

systems Ø Evidence-based

development

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