cmp cost issues & impact on consumables for memory … · for dram • dram scaling comes to an...
Post on 11-Jul-2020
0 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
www.linx-consulting.com
CMP COST ISSUES & IMPACT ON CONSUMABLES FOR MEMORY AND LOGIC
CMPUG @CNSE April 16, 2016
Mike CorbettManaging Partner
mcorbett@linx-consulting.com
www.linx-consulting.com
2
Agenda
• INTRODUCTION TO LINX CONSULTING
• SEMI INDUSRTY OUTLOOK
• COST TRENDS IN LEADING EDGE SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES
• OUTLOOK FOR CMP/CONCLUSIONS
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
3
LINX BACKGROUND
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
4
Linx Consulting
1. We help our clients to succeed by creating know ledge and developing unique insights at the intersection of electronic thin film processes and the chemicals industry
2. The know ledge is based on a core understanding of the semiconductor device technology; manufacturing processes and roadmaps; and the structural industry dynamics
3. This know ledge is leveraged to create advanced models, simulations and real-world forecasts
4. Our perspectives are by direct research and leveraging our extensive experience throughout the global industry value chain, including:
• Experience in global electronics and advanced materials and thin film processing industries • Experience in the global chemicals industry• Experience at Device Producers• Experience at OEMs
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
5
Linx Consulting Service Portfolio
• Multi-Client Reports– IC Materials
• CMP• Deposition• Patterning• Cleaning• Gases
– III-Vs, TSV, WLP, Solar
• Proprietary Projects– Market Planning– M & A– Growth and Diversification– Supply Chain Optimization– Technology Commercialization– Strategic Planning– Voice of the Customer
• Econometric Semiconductor Forecast– Financial planning– Sales and Operational planning– Forecasting
Hilltop Economics LLC
• Cost Modeling– Client demand modeling– Product development– Bill of Materials quantification
IC Knowledge, LLC
– Semi– LCD
– Packaging– PV
– Nano Technology– LED/ Compound Semi
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
6
Industry Analysis Reports Offered
CMP Focused:1. CMP Technologies and Markets to the Sub-10nm Node (6th edition)2. Specialty Abrasives in CMP (4th edition)3. CMP in TSV (2nd edition)4. Wafer Polishing Technologies and Markets
5. Advanced Thin Films for FEOL and BEOL Applications (5th Edition)6. Advanced Cleaning and Surface Preparation: Technologies and Markets (5th Edition)7. Advanced Patterning Forecasting (Semi-Annual)8. Chemicals and Materials for TSV Applications9. Electronic Specialty Gases10. Global Market for MO Precursors
11. The Econometric Semiconductor Forecasting Service
12. Strategic Cost Model
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
7
SEMI INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
8
Econometric Semiconductor Forecast –Materials Demand Track Silicon
Source: Hilltop Economics LLC
The mean absolute error is an exceptionally low 3.5%, an indication that the model and forecasting process has effectively captured
semiconductor MSI’s relationship to the macro economy.
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SEMI MSIESF Forecast
Annual Percent Change In MSI2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-0.1% 0.4% 11.4% 3.9% 6.5% 5.2%History: SEMI
Forecast: Hilltop Economics
March 2015 Update 2014Q4 2015Q1F 2015Q2F 2015Q3F 2015Q4FMSI 2550 2491 2679 2701 2619%Change -1.8% -2.3% 7.6% 0.8% -3.0%%Change vs prior year
15.5% 5.4% 3.6% 4.0% 2.7%
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
9
Device Segmentation
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Silicon Demand
<300mm ASIC MPU DRAM NAND-2D NAND-3D Other
Linx, IC Knowledge
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
10
Electronic Materials are Correlated to Silicon Demand
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
mill
ions
MS
I
Semi Linx ESF Materials Market
95% Correlation
2013 impacted by:Flat volume growthASP declinesYen devaluation
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
11
Correlation of Materials to MSI
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Wafer Fab Materials Market $M
ALD Clean CMP CVD Litho Plating PVD Spin On
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
12
COST ESTIMATES FOR CMP PROCESSING
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
13
The Drivers of Change and Challenges for Manufacturing Technology
3D Packaging
Gate Architecture
New Memory 450mm
EUV
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
14
ASIC – Processed Wafer Costs
25%
14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
Processed Wafer Cost - $/wafer Cost CMP Slurries and Pads ($)
28nm 20nm % Increase
Source: strategic Cost Model, ICKnowledge and Linx ConsultingSee Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
15
DRAM – Processed Wafer Costs
56%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
Processed Wafer Cost - $/wafer Cost CMP Slurries and Pads ($)
26nm 20nm % Increase
Source: strategic Cost Model, ICKnowledge and Linx ConsultingSee Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
16
2D NAND – Processed Wafer Costs
65%
12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
Processed Wafer Cost - $/wafer Cost CMP Slurries and Pads ($)
20nm 16nm % Increase
Total CoO includes Depreciation, maintenance, labor, facilities and consumablesSource: strategic Cost Model, ICKnowledge and Linx ConsultingSee Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
17
CMP OUTLOOK
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
18
300mm Wafer Growth
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MSI Growth
Logic Memory
10% CAGR
8% CAGR
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
19
Memory Growth Drivers
• Ru electrodes may be used with novel dielectrics for DRAM
• DRAM scaling comes to an end within ~ 5 years. TSV technology can be used to continue to scale density. HMC, etc.
• 2D and 3D NAND will be integrated simultaneously. @D structures will require higher planarity and 3D will open up new W polishes as well as oxide steps
• MRAM provides non-volatile storage, high read write speeds, lower energy dissipation and high write endurance
Sources: Matheson, JG Park, UMC/Sematech
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
20
Logic Growth Drivers
• IMEC has demonstrated the integration of high-mobility channel InGaAs n-channel and Ge p-channel metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistors
• CVD Co improves Cu wetting and extends Cu gap fill. CVD Co is thin, continuous, conformal layer that repairs any discontinuities for barrier/seed
• A cross-section TEM of a 50-nm trench structure coated with a ~5nm Ru:TaN liner followed by ECD copper. The filling characteristics are equivalent to seeded copper, and direct plated films possess generally larger grain size characteristics
Sources: Applied Materials, IMEC and Albany NanoTech
See Beyond the Horizon
www.linx-consulting.com
21
Conclusions
• Strong industry growth outlook over the next several years
• CMP Consumables are not major fab cost driver
• For 22nm and 14nm, the industry needs to have extremely tight control on the slurries and pad quality to control defects
• In advanced slurries, morphology of the slurry particles will be critical - No agglomerations and angular particles
• Trend to low abrasives – 0.5% or lower solids content as the slurry formulation trend is to greater chemo effect than mechanical effect
• Selectivity requirements will prove challenging to slurries as selectivity is increased and pads are tuned as a key point of the overall process control
• Defectivity control will be key for pads in terms of reducing scratching, dishing and erosion
• New applications in both memory and logic will continue to drive the opportunities for CMP going forward
See Beyond the Horizon
top related