cmp pads & conditioners...3m & kinik dominate with 55% share a dozen other players with...

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Urethane Phoenix RisingUrethane Phoenix RisingUrethane Phoenix RisingCMP Pads & ConditionersCMP Pads & ConditionersCMP Pads & Conditioners

Michael A. Fury, Ph.D.Michael A. Fury, Ph.D.Michael A. Fury, Ph.D.Michael A. Fury, Ph.D.Michael A. Fury, Ph.D.Michael A. Fury, Ph.D.Michael A. Fury, Ph.D.Michael A. Fury, Ph.D.Techcet Group LLCTechcet Group LLCTechcet Group LLCTechcet Group LLCTechcet Group LLCTechcet Group LLCTechcet Group LLCTechcet Group LLC

July 14, 2010July 14, 2010July 14, 2010July 14, 2010July 14, 2010July 14, 2010July 14, 2010July 14, 2010

Techcet Group, LLCTechcet Group, LLCTechcet Group, LLCTechcet Group, LLCTechcet Group, LLCTechcet Group, LLCTechcet Group, LLCTechcet Group, LLC

MFury@Techcet.com 415MFury@Techcet.com 415MFury@Techcet.com 415MFury@Techcet.com 415MFury@Techcet.com 415MFury@Techcet.com 415MFury@Techcet.com 415MFury@Techcet.com 415--------395395395395395395395395--------69456945694569456945694569456945www.techcet.comwww.techcet.comwww.techcet.comwww.techcet.comwww.techcet.comwww.techcet.comwww.techcet.comwww.techcet.com

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 14, 2010 2

Outline

�The Business

�The Players

�The Buzz

�The End

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 14, 2010 3

CMPUG July 2009

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 14, 2010 4

The Business of Business

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 14, 2010 5

Source: SEMI Industry Research and Statistics, July 2010

The Business of Business

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 14, 2010 6

The Business of CMP - 2009

CMP Slurry & Pad Revenue (2009)

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

$1.8

$2.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

($B

illi

on

s)

Upside Conservative

Recovery to 2007 peak

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 14, 2010 7

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

$1.8

$2.0

$2.2

$2.4

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Tot

al S

lurr

y &

Pad

Rev

enue

($B

) Upside Conservative

The Business of CMP - 2010

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 14, 2010 8

The Business of Business

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 14, 2010 9

The Business of CMP

� Pad market ~$709M

�3 year CAGR 8-9%

�Outlook last year was 5.5%

� Pad Conditioner market ~$200M

�Tracks pad market pretty well

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG

July 14, 2010 10

The Players - Pads

�Dow still dominates with 78% share

�Measurable shares: table for 4, please�Cabot, Thomas West, JSR, innoPad

� 3-5% share each; 7% Other

� Investor confidence: new funding rounds

� innoPad $6M, April 2009

�NexPlanar $3.5M, March 2010

�No departures in 2009

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG

July 14, 2010 11

The Players - Pads

�Dow market share vulnerability is

process-specific

� ILD: Praxair (AMAT), innoPad, Toyo

�S-STI: 3M

�W: TWI, CCMP, innoPad

�AMAT Cu: JSR, Fujibo

�Ebara Cu: CCMP, Fujibo

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG

July 14, 2010 12

The Players - Pads

�Pad manufacturing portfolio

continues to expand

�Skived from a polyurethane cake

� Individually molded

�Molded grooves

�Punched from cast sheet

�Porosity on demand

� Independent buttons

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG

July 14, 2010 13

The Players - Pads

Cabot5%

Thomas West5%

JSR4%

Other3%

IVT Tech1%

Dow82%

Techcet estimates of market share

Cabot5%

JSR3%innoPad

3%Other7%

TWI4%

Dow78%

July, 2009

July, 2010

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG

July 14, 2010 14

The Players – Pad Conditioners

�3M & Kinik dominate with 55% share

�A dozen other players with 0%-13%

� Strong regional variations

� Entegris Planargem™ unveiled March, 2010

�Manufacturing methods & materials continue to evolve

�Microreplication

�Non-random diamond placement

�Ceramics, polymers replace metals

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG

July 14, 2010 15

The Players – Pad Conditioners

� Pad conditioning paradigm shift�Startup: Confluense LLCConfluense LLCConfluense LLCConfluense LLC (TBW)

�Debris removal � defect reduction

�Slurry dilution � replacement mode�50% reduction in slurry consumption

�Continuous pad cleaning�Less aggressive pad conditioning

�>2x pad life, >2x conditioner life

�Shorter rinse cycles

�50% reduction in water consumption

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG

July 14, 2010 16

The Players – Pad Conditioners

Ehwa5%

TBW4%

Abrasive Tech11% Mitsubishi

6%

St. Gobain3%

Other4%

Kinik22%

3M32%

Saesol13%

Techcet estimates of market share

Mitsubishi6%

Ehw a5%

TBW4%

Other3%

Abrasive Tech11%

St. Gobain3%

3M33%

Kinik22%

Saesol13%

July, 2009

July, 2010

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG

July 14, 2010 17

The Buzz – The Biz

�CMP Pad Market Dynamic Has Evolved

�More evidence of ‘normal’ competitive behavior

�CCMP pad presence regarded as both credible and sustainable

� Investors more confident in startups

� Influence of Dow acquisition

�Gearing up for greater process-specific customization

�Co-suppliers working more with pad startups

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG

July 14, 2010 18

The End

�CMP recovery is ahead of expectations

�CMP consumables revenue will surpass 2007 peak levels by 2011 if not late this year

�No residual impact beyond 2010

�CMP applications continue to increase along evolutionary trajectories

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG

July 14, 2010 19

The Techcet Group, LLC

�Karey Holland, Ph.D.

� Steven Holland, Ph.D.

� John Housley

� Lita Shon-Roy� Michael Fury, Ph.D.

� Jiro Hanaue

� Maggie Lee

� Larry Thompson, Ph.D.

� Allan Wiesnoski

© 2010 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG

July 14, 2010 20

The Techcet Group, LLC

�2010 CMP Report Orders

� Lita Shon-Roy

�925-413-9373

�LShonRoy@Techcet.com

�www.Techcet.com