cody w. telep george mason university (usa) 6 july 2011 designing randomized trials of informer...
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Cody W. TelepGeorge Mason University (USA)
6 July 2011
Designing Randomized Trials of Informer Recruitment and
Management Policies
Police Investigations: Building an Evidence Base
“Although criminal investigation is a fundamental mission of the police, there has been surprisingly little scientific inquiry in this area” (Horvath et al., 2001)
Evidence-Based Policing Matrix: only 2 of the 103 total abstracts mention “detective”
In the U.S., detectives make up about 16% of sworn officers, but we know very little about the effectiveness of their actions, even though they play a major role in one major performance measure of the police, clearance rates
Police Informers: Building an Evidence Base
“Though widely acknowledged as vital to law enforcement, social scientists have largely ignored the practice of confidential informing.” (Miller, 2011: 203)
Evidence-Based Policing Matrix: only 1 of the 103 total abstracts mentions “informant” or “informer”
Some focus on cost-effectiveness, but research largely descriptive and focused on issues of threatened legitimacy as a result of close police contact with known criminals
Benefits of Randomized ExperimentsHigh internal validity- would give us new insights
into investigations and informers that are more believable than existing research
Helps inform policing practice and policy- would provide a better sense of what works (and what doesn’t) in terms of informer practices to increase intelligence, increase clearances, and reduce crime
Provide a “simple” answer for police leaders- statistics behind experiments are not exceedingly complex
Feasibility of Randomized ExperimentsAlthough there are potential ethical concerns,
experimentation is possible in the case of recruiting and managing police informersTreatment (i.e. investigator time) is limited and
so randomization could provide an unbiased way of using resources
Not conducting any rigorous research is perhaps just as bad- current practices are often based on informal policies or hunches that could be wrong
Nothing about an experiment would need to threaten the confidentiality of informers
What kinds of experiments? Recruitment experiments
Examining how different approaches to recruiting informers lead to differential outcomes in terms of number of informers recruited, amount of intelligence gathered, cases solved, and crime prevented
Management experiments Examining how different approaches to
managing informers lead to differential outcomes in terms of intelligence gathered, cases solved, and crime prevented
Unit of Analysis Experiments on informers could be carried
out on multiple levels of analysis
Perhaps the most obvious is at the level of the individual informer- randomly allocating potential or current informers
Could randomly allocate administrative units (e.g. prisons)
Could randomly allocate geographic areas within a jurisdiction (e.g. drug markets)
Outcome MeasuresNumber of informers recruited and level of
informer cooperation (legitimacy)
Amount of usable intelligence gathered
Number of cases solved (clearance rates)
Crime prevented (crime rates)
Costs and cost-effectiveness
Informer Experiments: 3 examples
1. Recruiting informers in a prison/jail setting
2. Managing informers through interview/questioning techniques
3. Recruiting and managing informers in crime hot spots
Recruiting Informers in Prisons/Jails Examine traditional informal methods of
choosing who to recruit vs. use of research to guide recruitment policies
Example: randomly assign prisoners to either a control group (traditional methods) or a treatment group that uses statistical evidence (e.g. the findings of Jeffrey, 2011) to guide recruitment procedures
OutcomesProportion of prisoners successfully recruitedAmount of usable intelligence gathered
Managing InformersCooper’s (2010) work suggests that many who
agree to be informers while in custody cease to be cooperative upon release
Could develop experiments to examine ways to better keep recruited informers committed to providing intelligenceThe impact of how investigators interact with
informers (procedural justice)The impact of bureaucratic control systems
(particularly on how intelligence is gathered and shared)
Managing Informers: Procedural Justice Incorporate Tyler’s (1990, 2004) research on
legitimacy and procedural justice into informer management procedures
Control group that receives “standard” interviews from detectivesE.g. may involve deception, typically more
confrontational
Treatment group is interviewed by detectives who have received special training on procedural justice and enhancing police legitimacy E.g. interviewing should focus on detective being
respectful, transparent, unbiased
Managing Informers: Procedural Justice There could be differences across the groups
in levels of long-term informer cooperation/compliance with police Tyler’s research would suggest that a
procedural justice framework might enhance informer cooperation
Could also measure informer perceptions of legitimacy of the police Ideally, if legitimacy levels are enhanced,
these informers may avoid future involvement in criminal activity
Informers in Hot Spots Policing
Hot spots policing has a strong evidence base for reducing crime and disorder (Braga, 2007)
Would combining hot spots enforcement with an explicit effort to recruit informers increase crime control effectiveness?
3 group experimental study of hot spots (e.g. drug markets, gun crime areas):Control group: receives standard policing as usual“Standard” hot spots group: receives intensive
policing Informer hot spots group: receives intensive
policing AND explicit focus on recruiting and maintaining informers in the hot spot areas
Informers in Hot Spots Policing cont.Officers working in the informer hot spots
group could receive additional training on managing informers and incentives to maximize informer recruitment and intelligence gathering
Outcomes:Would expect informer hot spots group to lead
to increases in intelligence gathered and informers recruited
Could examine experimentally whether there were differences in crime and disorder outcomes across the three groups
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