cognitive psych chapter 12
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Decision Makingand
Reasoning
CHAPTER 12
Elyza Mae Buenavista
Elme Villalva
REPORTED BY
Judgementand
Decision Making
Used to select from choices or to
evaluate opportunities
Classical Decisions Theory
Actions
Conditions
Outcomes
EconomicMan and Woman
• Decision makers are fully informed regarding all possible options for their decisions and all possible outcomes of their decision options• Infinitely sensitive to subtle distinctions among decision options• Fully rational regarding to their choice of options
Subjective Utility• based on the individual’s judged
weightings of utility, rather than on objective criteriaSubjective Probability
• – based on the individual’s estimates of likelihood, rather than on objective statistical computations
Subjective Expected Utility
Theory
Satisficing - We do not consider all
possible options and then carefully compute which of the entire universe of options will maximize our gains and minimize our losses rather, we consider options one by one, and then we select an option as soon as we find one that is satisfactory or just good enough to meet our minimum level of acceptability
Elimination By Aspects- offers a behavioral explanation of the choice process that accounts for both the process of choice set formation (definition of consideration sets) and the observed substitutability between options
HEURISTICSAND
BIASES
Representativeness - judge membership in a
class similarity to stereotypes
• PROBLEM:1. All the families having exactly six children in a particular city were surveyed. In 72 of the families, the exact order of births of boys and girls was GBGBBG (G girl; B boy).
What is your estimate of the number of families surveyed in which the exact order of births is BGBBBB?
2. Susan is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, she has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail. Is Susan a Librarian, a Teacher, or a Lawyer?
3. Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Is Linda a Bank Teller? Is Linda a feminist Bank Teller?
- to judge likelihood or frequency of event,
occurrence
Availability
PROBLEM: Consider these pairs of causes of death:• Lung Cancer vs. Motor Vehicle Accidents• Emphysema vs. Homicide• Tuberculosis vs. Fire and Flames
From each pair, choose the one you think causes more
deaths in the US each year.
- Used to estimate value or size of
quantity
Anchoring-and-AdjustmentHeuristics
Framing example:1. A rare disease has broken out, which is expected to kill 600 people. There are two possible programs to combat it, but they cannot both be used. The consequences of each are known:
A. 200 saved with certainty
B. 600 saved with a probability of .33
Which would you choose? Why?
2. A rare disease has broken out, which is expected to kill 600 people. There are two possible programs to combat it, but they cannot both be used. The consequences of each are known:
A. 400 die for certainB. 600 die with a
probability of .67 Which would you choose? Why?
Illusory CorrelationWe tend to see
particular events or particular attribute and categories as
going together because we are
disposed to do so (Hamilton & Lickel
2000)
EXAMPLES:• Sugar makes children hyperactive• Infertile couples conceive after
adoption–Based on an overemphasis on dramatic rare results and ignoring common results.
• The Myth of Hot Hand (Gilovich, Vallone & Tversky, 1985)• Belief that a professional basketball player is more likely to make a shot after they have just made a basket, than they have just missed one.
Deductive Reasoning• Proposition - an assertion,
which may be either true of false• Premise - propositions about
which arguments are made
Conditional Reasoning• Modus ponens–The person affirms the antecedent
• Modus tollens –The person denies the consequent
Pragmatic Reasoning Schemas
- general organizing principles or rules related to particular kinds of goals
such as permissions, obligation, or causation.
Syllogistic ReasoningSyllogisms – deductive arguments that involve drawing conclusions from two premises.
Major Term •in the major premise forms the predicate of the conclusion
Minor Term • in the minor premise forms the subject of the conclusion
Middle Term •the categorical term
Example:Major Premise: All birds are
animals.Minor Premise: All parrots are
birds.Conclusion: All Parrots are
animals.
“animal” is the major term, “parrot” is the minor term, “bird” is the middle term
Linear SyllogismInvolves a quantitative comparison in which each term displays either more or less of a particular attribute or quality, and the reasoner must draw conclusions based on the quantification.
Example:“John is taller than Bill, and Bill is
taller than Pete. Who is the tallest?”
Categorical SyllogismComprise two premise and a conclusion. The premise states something about the category membership of the terms.
Example:Major Premise: All mammals are warm-blooded.Minor Premise: All black dogs are mammals.Conclusion: Therefore, all black dogs are warm-blooded
Further aids and Obstacles to Deductive Reasoning
•We overextend the use of strategies that work in some syllogisms in which the strategies fail us.
Overextension
Errors
•Failure to consider all the possibilities before reaching a conclusion.
ForeclosureEffects
•We seek confirmation rather than disconfirmation of what we really believe.
ConfirmationBias
Inductive ReasoningIn this kind of reasoning, there
is no logical movement from premise to conclusion. The
premises are usually based on facts or observations. There is a possibility that the premise
may be true while the conclusion is false, since there
is no necessary logical relationship between premise
and conclusion.
Reaching Causal Inferences• Stuart Mill proposed a set of
canons-widely accepted heuristics principles on which people may base their judgement. Method of Agreement – make separate list of the possible causes that are present and those that are absent when a given outcomes occur.
Method of Difference – observe that all the circumstances in which a given phenomenon occurs are just like those in which it does not occur except for in one way that they differ
Categorical Inferences• Bottom-up – based on observing
various instances and considering the degree of variability across instances.
• Top-down – selectively searching for constancies with many variations and selectively combining existing categories and concepts
Reasoning by Analogy• Ex: Fire is to asbestos as water is to (a)
vinyl (b) air (c) cotton.The reasoner must observe the first pair of items and must induce from those two items one or more relations.
Developmental of Inductive Reasoning
The changes in reasoning about factors in these domains appear to
show enhanced understanding of the relationship between appearance and deeper functional principles.
An Alternative View of Reasoning
Steven Sloman suggested that people have two distinct systems of reasoning:
Associative System – sensitive to observed similarities and temporal contiguities
Rule-based System – involves manipulations based on relations among symbols
END
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