comments on sea ice in the arctic climate impact assessment and future needs for coastal alaska

The State of Arctic Sea IceGary Hufford, NOAA/NWS Alaska Region

Lawson Brigham, Executive DirectorArctic Research Commission

Comments on Sea Ice in the Arctic Climate

Impact Assessment and Future Needs for Coastal Alaska

PRIDE Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind/Wave WorkshopAnchorage, Alaska 2 - 3 August 2005

Lawson BrighamDeputy Director, U.S. Arctic Research Commission

usarc@acsalaska.net

Sea IceSea Ice Observational data show Observational data show a decrease of coveragea decrease of coverage

• Decrease isDecrease is largest inlargest in summersummer

• Decrease isDecrease is largest sincelargest since late 1980slate 1980s

Sea

Ice

Exte

nt (m

illio

n km

2 )

16151413121110

9876543210

Sea

Ice

Exte

nt (m

illio

n km

2 )

16 September 200216 September 2002

16 September 200316 September 2003

16 September 200416 September 2004

16 September 200216 September 2002 16 September 200316 September 2003 16 September 200416 September 2004

Arctic Climate Impact AssessmentArctic Climate Impact AssessmentClimate model projections of sea ice extent:Climate model projections of sea ice extent:

2000 - 21002000 - 2100

MarchMarch SeptemberSeptember

MAR SEPT

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

‘Arctic Sea Ice Atlas of the Future’Projected Ice Extent – Hadley Model

Sea Ice in Alaska’s Coastal Seas

• 23 June 2005 – Established working group

• Represented – USARC, AOOS, NWS (Anchorage), UAF, NIC, NSIDC, PMEL, USFWS, CRREL, UW/APL

• Issue – Lack of long-term, robust sea ice data set for Alaska’s coastal seas

• Needs - Arctic Climate Impact Assessment- Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment- Integrated Bering Sea Ecosystem Research- Many Stakeholders

Examples of Ongoing Sea Ice Work

• NWS – Regional sea ice charts

• NIC – Global charts; George Mason U. digitizing for usable database

• NSIDC – W. Dehn collection ~ 7000 charts (1953 – 1986)

• PMEL – SAR data analysis

• CRREL – Range of research

• UAA/MMS – Sea ice atlas

• UAF – Spring leads/landfast; energy + mass balance; HF radar; ice thickness by airborne sensing

• UW/APL – Fast ice; range of research