commodity weekly report 31 4 aug 2017
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31 JULY to 4 AUG
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31 JULY TO 4 AUG. 2017
Monday-Friday
COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT
31 JULY to 4 AUG
2
COMMODITIES PREVIOUS WEEK
MCX 21-7-2017
CLOSING PRICE
28-7-2017
CLOSING PRICE
VALUE
CHANGED % CHANGED
GOLD (AUG) 28548 28590 42 0.15%
SILVER (SEP) 38153 38430 277 0.73%
CRUDE OIL (AUG) 2960 3188 228 7.70%
NATURAL GAS (JUL) 193.40 189.50 -3.9 -2.02%
COPPER (AUG) 389.10 408.70 19.6 5.04%
NICKEL (JUL.) 613.50 656.20 42.7 6.96%
LEAD (JUL.) 143.25 148.05 4.8 3.35%
ZINC (JUL.) 177.45 178.20 0.75 0.42%
ALUMINIUM (JUL.) 122.50 121.20 -1.3 -1.06%
31 JULY to 4 AUG
3
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- Gold prices traded higher last week, as the dollar remained under pressure at fourteen-month lows, after inves-
tor expectations grew the Federal Reserve would keep rates low for longer, following data showing inflation remained subdued. Gold fu-
tures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $9.53, or 0.75%, to $1,269.52 a troy ounce.
Gold recouped some of its losses sustained earlier during the week, as traders mulled over a downward revision in first-quarter gross do-
mestic product (GDP) which offset second-quarter gross domestic product that met expectations.
TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Gold last week was in sideways movement and closed in positive note. For upcoming week if its price manages
above its major resistance level of 29000 then it can give well up side movement and test its next resistance level of 29400. On downward
side it is taking support of 23.6% retracement level which is near to its crucial support level of 28500. If its price sustain below this level
then it may change its direction and drag down towards next support level of 28000.
GOLD (OCT)
WEEKLY
R3 29100
R2 28800
R1 28700
Pivot 28500
S1 28400
S2 28200
S3 27880
WEEKLY
OPEN 28563
HIGH 28610
LOW 28304
CLOSE 28590
CHANGE 42
%
CHANGE 0.15%
GOLD (OCT LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS
BUY ABOVE 28850 29050 29300 28600
SELL BELOW 28700 28500 28250 28950
31 JULY to 4 AUG
4
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- Silver Futures has been relatively volatile over the past few weeks, but despite the recent pullback from the high
at $17., it could be getting set to rally again. The precious metal is currently trading at $16.8 around, relatively close to key support. Any
further downside moves would need to surpass this level but downside risks are easing. The daily chart shows a relatively clear short
term, rising trend line, implying support in the coming days. The RSI Oscillator is also near oversold levels.
TECHNICAL VIEW:- .MCX Silver last week showed sideways to uptrend but not able to break its important resistance level of 39000. If its
price holds above this level then we can expect trend reversal and its price can go towards next resistance level of 40000. On other side it
is taking support of its trend line which is near to its 37900 support level. If its price breaches it and sustain below this level then it may
drag down towards next support level of 37000.
WEEKLY
R3 38680
R2 38680
R1 38530
Pivot 38600
S1 38480
S2 38550
S3 36500
WEEKLY
OPEN 38150
HIGH 38699
LOW 38652
CLOSE 38430
CHANGE 277
%
CHANGE 0.73%
SILVER(SEP.) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS
BUY ON DIPS 37900 38600 39400 37000
SELL ON RISE 38700 38000 37200 39600
SILVER (SEP)
31 JULY to 4 AUG
5
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- Crude futures settled higher last week, as data this week eased concerns about surplus supplies, after Saudi
Arabia pledged to lower exports while U.S. crude supplies fell more than expected. On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for
September delivery rose 67 cents to settle at $49.71 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent added $1.02 to trade at
$52.51 a barrel.
TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Crude oil last week was in strong up trend after breaking its major resistance level of 3100 and close near to its
weekly high level which indicate further upward movement, it has important resistance level of 3200, and if its price manages above this
level then it may test next resistance level of 3400. On down ward side it has major support level of 3070, if its price sustain below this lev-
el then we can expect trend reversal and its price drag down towards next support level of 2890.
CRUDE (AUG.)
WEEKLY
R3 3630
R2 3370
R1 3280
Pivot 3105
S1 3015
S2 2845
S3 2580
WEEKLY
OPEN 2965
HIGH 3200
LOW 2936
CLOSE 3188
CHANGE 228
%
CHANGE 7.70%
CRUDE (AUG.) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS
BUY ON DIPS 3000 3100 3200 2870
SELL ON RISE 3200 3100 30000 3331
31 JULY to 4 AUG
6
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- Copper prices surge to the highest in two years following reports that China could move to ban imports of scrap
metal by the end of next year, which likely would boost demand for refined metals in the world’s top importer. LME copper prices hit
$6,400/metric ton overnight, the highest since May 2015, and have soared ~5% in two days.
TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Copper last week has given good break out of its long consolidation phase and gave strongly up side movement
and tested its next resistance level of 415, but not able to break it. For upcoming week its uptrend may be continue if its price manages
above 415 level then it may move further towards its next resistance 425. On down ward side it has major psychological support level of
400 if its price sustain below then it can move towards next support level of 390.
COPPER (AUG)
WEEKLY
R3 456
R2 430
R1 420
Pivot 403
S1 392
S2 376
S3 350
WEEKLY
OPEN 389.15
HIGH 414.25
LOW 387.65
CLOSE 408.70
CHANGE 19.6
%
CHANGE 5.04%
COPPER (AUG) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS
BUY ABOVE 390 400 410 377
SELL ON RISE 413 403 393 425
31 JULY to 4 AUG
7
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- U.S. natural gas futures rose to the highest levels of the session in North American trade last week, after data
showed that domestic supplies in storage rose less than anticipated last week. U.S. natural gas for September delivery was at $2.963 per
million British thermal units by 10:35AM ET (1435MT), up 5.2 cents, or around 1.8%. Futures were at around $2.937 prior to the release of
the supply data. Prices ended lower for the fifth time in six last week and mid bearish weather forecasts that should limit demand for the
fuel.
TECHNICAL VIEW:-.This week Natural gas will be in down trend, as in last week it was closed around 189.50 and this week it was opened
at 189.10 This is the main reason it was down around 173 , and hence we can see it upwards. However, if it gives the break out level of 193
we can sell it for downside till 182 if it gives the break out to more downward level 173
NATURAL GAS (AUG)
WEEKLY
R3 202
R2 195
R1 192
Pivot 189
S1 186
S2 183
S3 176
WEEKLY
OPEN 192.50
HIGH 192.50
LOW 186.20
CLOSE 189.50
CHANGE -3.9
%
CHANGE -2.02%
N.GAS(AUG.) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS
BUY ON DIPS 193 201 209 180
SELL BELOW 182 174 166 193
31 JULY to 4 AUG
8
STATUS OF OUR LAST WEEKLY RECOMMENDATIONS
RECOMMENDATIONS PROFIT/LOSS STATUS
BUY GOLD ON DIPS 28150 TGT-28350-28550 SL BELOW 27900 0 NOT EXECUTED
SELL GOLD ON RISE 28900 TGT-28700-28500 SL ABOVE-29150 0 NOT EXECUTED
BUY SILVER ON DIPS 37500 TGT-38200-39000 SL BELOW-36700 0 NOT EXECUTED
SELL ON RISE 38200 TGT-37500-36800 SL ABOVE 39000 -6900 CLOSE AT 38430
BUY ON DIPS 2905 TGT-3005-3105 SL BELOW 28000 0 NOT EXECUTED
SELL ON RISE 3000 TGT-2900-2800 SL ABOVE 3150
-1500 SL TRIGGERED
BUY ON DIPS 173 TGT-181-189 SL BELOW 160 0 NOT EXECUTED
SELL ON RISE 201 TGT-193-185 SL ABOVE 213
10000 SL TRIGGERED
BUY COPPER ABOVE 392 TGT-402-412 SL BELOW 377 0 2ND TGT
SELL COPPER ON RISE 390 TGT-380-370 SL ABOVE-405
-15000 SL TRIGGERED
P&L
31 JULY to 4 AUG
9
ECONOMIC CALENDER
Time Event Forecast Previous
Monday, July 31, 2017
19:30 Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) 1.00% -0.80%
Tuesday, August 1, 2017
19:30 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 56.5 57.8
Wednesday, August 2, 2017
17:45 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul) 188K 158K
20:00 Crude Oil Imports -0.254M
20:00 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -1.699M
20:00 Crude Oil Inventories -7.208M
Thursday, August 3, 2017
18:00 Continuing Jobless Claims 1,958K 1,964K
18:00 Initial Jobless Claims 242K 244K
19:30 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 57 57.4
20:00 Natural Gas Storage 17B
Friday, August 4, 2017
18:00 Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) 183K 222K
18:00 Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.30% 4.40%
18:00 Government Payrolls (Jul) 35.0K
31 JULY to 4 AUG
10
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