complex system modeling and cities - michel morvan

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The Complexity ExperienceAn introduction to modeling and simulation of complex systems for cities

Michel MORVAN – Chairman, The CoSMo Company

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COMPLEX SYSTEMS

HIERARCHICAL

DYNAMICALLY COUPLED

HETEROGENEOUSMULTI-SCALE

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WHAT IS TRUE IN BIOLOGY IS ALSO TRUE FOR OTHER DOMAINS

HIERARCHICAL

DYNAMICALLY COUPLED

HETEROGENEOUSMULTI-SCALE

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TWO CRITICAL POINTS

Complex systems modeling

Complex systems simulation

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TWO CRITICAL POINTS

Complex systems modeling

How to run simulations on complex systems ?

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Real Estate

Water Supply System

PopulationWaste Water

Treatment

Transport System

Smart Grid

Biofuel Production

Energy System

Waste Treatments

Food & Goods

Renewable Energies

Logistics

Quality of life

THE EXAMPLE OF SYSTEMS IN A CITY

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HOW WE TEND TO SEE IT

Real Estate

Water Supply System

Population

Transport System

Smart Grid

Biofuel Production

Energy SystemWaste

TreatmentsFood & Goods

Renewable Energies

Logistics

Quality of life

1 32

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SIMPLIFICATION

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IF YOU DON’T GO THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS…

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… YOU WON’T DISCOVER THE WONDERFULL OPPORTUNITIES OFFERED BY COMPLEX SYSTEMS MODELING!

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THE SANTA FE INSTITUTE MOTTO

FROM SIMPLICITY TO COMPLEXITY!

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TWO CRITICAL POINTS

How to model complex systems ?

Complex systems simulations

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CHAOTIC BEHAVIOUR

STRUCTURAL UNPREDICTIBILITY

STUDY THEM VIA SIMULATION

WHY DO WE NEED SIMULATION ?

COMPLEX SYSTEM ARE ALMOST UNPREDICTABLE

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EMERGENT PHENOMENA

SYSTEM RESILIENCY / ADAPTABILITY

ROBUSTNESS / VULNERABILITY

MANAGE AND UNDERSTAND CASCADING EFFECTS

WHY CAN WE DO WITH SIMULATION ?

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THE NEED OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS SIMULATION

Resilience tests

Optimization

Sensitivity analysis

EX : Test and improve emergency plans, optimize crisis management CAPEX and OPEX

EX : Optimize the maintenance of a big energy network, evaluate and reduce the environmental impact of a new infrastructure, define the optimal configuration of a complex multi-modal transport network or supply chain.

EX : Test and improve the robustness of a supply chain (ensure continuity of service) , improve the robustness of critical systems (water networks in refinery plants)

Testing ScenariosEX : Measuring the impact of urban master plans on a set of different KPIs such as GHG emissions, congestion, …

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WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF NEW INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS ON THE CITY OF

VERSAILLES ?

TESTING SCENARIOS – COSMO + ESRI

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DISCTRICTS, AREAS, BUILDINGS

NEW BUILDINGS & INFRASTRUCTURE

OCCUPATION RULES

HOW IS THE LAND USED AND WHAT RULES DEFINE IT ?

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ROADS

PUBLIC TRANSPORTSGHG DIFFUSION RULES

NOISE

HOW DOES THE TRANSPORTATION NETWORK IS ORGANIZED AND HOW DOES IT WORK ?

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INVESTMENT RULES

OFFER & DEMAND

DIFFERENT SOCIO-ECONOMICS NEEDS

HOW DOES INVESTMENT FIRMS BEHAVE ?

Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeCOUPLING THE 3 MODELS

?

?

?

HOW DOES THOSE THREE MODELS INTERACT ?

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STEP 1: BUILD CONCEPTUAL MODELS

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STEP 2: INSTANTIATE MODELS ON THE SPECIFIC CITY

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REAL ESTATE PRICES

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POPULATION DENSITY

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EXISTING AND PLANNED INFRASTRUCTURE

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STEP THREE : RUN YOUR SIMULATION

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STEP FOUR : VISUALIZE AND ANALYZE THE RESULTS

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Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeGHG EMISSION EVOLUTION (2010-2030)

Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeEVIDENCE BASED DECISION

GHG evolution with public transport incentivisation

GHG evolution without public transport incentivisation

SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2

RUN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND CHOOSE THE MOST EFFECTIVE ONE