comprehensive napa valley housing market overview 01/22/11

Comprehensive Housing Market Overview

http://stevenwblack.com

January 22, 2011

13 years Experience

background

http://www.flickr.com/photos/srogan/2284111398/

Top-Producing Realtor in Napa

background

http://www.flickr.com/photos/johnjoh/1060267344/ http://stevenwblack.com

Been through it personally

background

http://www.flickr.com/photos/smswigart/5147001743/ http://stevenwblack.com

Driven by passion to help other Americans keep their homes

background

http://www.flickr.com/photos/bondomania/2636802659/ http://stevenwblack.com

Why we’re hereWho is a!ectedHow it happens

What you can do

we’re going to talk about

the fine print

! Steven W. Black & Associates offers

information on the state of the market and

insight into what has worked in the past. Each

situation is unique and you are responsible for

the use of the information presented.

Steven W. Black & Associates o!ers information on the state of the market and insight into what has worked in the past. Each situation is unique and you are responsible for the use of the information presented.

*

the fine print

! Steven W. Black & Associates offers

information on the state of the market and

insight into what has worked in the past. Each

situation is unique and you are responsible for

the use of the information presented.

Steven W. Black & Associates o!ers information on the state of the market and insight into what has worked in the past. Each situation is unique and you are responsible for the use of the information presented.

*Don’t worry, we are happy to

o!er help specific to your situation after this presentation

http://www.flickr.com/photos/joao_trindade/4363157652

Why Are We Here?

how it SHOULD work

Change in financial situation

ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.

Loan ModificationChange in financial situation

how it SHOULD work

Priniciple reductionRestructuring

(interest rate )Enabled by Federal

Assistance programs

how it SHOULD work

Priniciple reductionRestructuring

(interest rate )Enabled by Federal

Assistance programs

Done.Done.

Loan Modification Programs

loan modification programs

SMD Streamlined Modification

Process

Indy Mac Plan

Fannie Mae /Freddie Mac Plan

Hope for Homeowners Plan(HUD/FHA)

TARP(Troubled Assets Relief Program)

HAMP(Home A!ordable Modification Plan)

SMD Streamlined Mod ProcessIndy Mac Plan

Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac PlanHope for Homeowners Plan

TARPHAMP

SMD Streamlined Mod ProcessIndy Mac Plan

Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac PlanHope for Homeowners Plan

TARPHAMP

1

2

3

4

5

6

How Did the Major Banks Do in 2009?

wells fargo

500,000 modifications in 2009

* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)

*

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc

wells fargo

500,000 modifications in 200910,000 modifications per state

*

wells fargo

that’s 833 modifications per month

*

wells fargo

that’s 833 modifications per month58 counties in California

*

wells fargo

172 per county every month

*

wells fargo

*

6% of Eligible Loans

bank of america

650,000 modifications in 2009

*

bank of america

*

bank of america

that’s 1083 modifications per month

*

bank of america

*

bank of america

*

bank of america

*

4% of Eligible Loans

How it Really Works

Change in financial situation

how it really works

Rarely happens~10% include

principlereduction

Where is TARP?Where is HAMP?...

Short Sale Loan ModificationChange in financial situation

how it really works

principle reduction

Bank drivesterms of sale

Multiple O!ers

Short Sale Loan ModificationChange in financial situation

how it really works

principlereduction

Bank drivesterms of sale

Multiple O!ers

Fore-

closure!!!

Fore-

closure!!!

Who is Directly A!ected?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/billward/4461521050/ http://stevenwblack.com

home purchased in the last 13 years

who is directly a!ected?

home purchased in the last 13 years

that’s back to 1997

refinanced in the last 13 years

that’s back to 1997

Who is Indirectly A!ected?

who is indirectly a!ected?

friends and family

communities

http://www.flickr.com/photos/familymwr/4841981088 http://stevenwblack.com

local businessesschools

marriagestaxpayers

Everyone.

Who Profits?

bank profits

$0

$15

$30

$45

$60

3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10

InBillions

* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov)

*

http://www.fdic.gov

bank profits

$0

$15

$30

$45

$60

3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10

InBillions

*

http://www.fdic.gov

bank profits

$0

$15

$30

$45

$60

3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10

InBillions

*

$38 Billion533% annual increase

124% quarterly increase

http://www.fdic.gov

How it Happens

pine st. napa

$55,000

$110,000

$165,000

$220,000

Oct 28, 2010Dec 10, 2010

2 Bedroom1 Bath~0.3 Acre

870 ft2

Regu

lar S

ale

pine st. napa

$55,000

$110,000

$165,000

$220,000

Oct 28, 2010Dec 10, 2010

870 ft2

1150 ft2

Bank

owne

dSo

ld by

REO

Regu

lar S

ale

* Intentionally pulled one of the lowest comps in timeframe closest to close of escrow of affected propertyhttp://stevenwblack.com

pine st. napa

$55,000

$110,000

$165,000

$220,000

Oct 28, 2010Dec 10, 2010

1150 ft2870 ft2

$50,100 devaluationfor a house 32% larger

in ~5 weeks

Bank

owne

dSo

ld by

REO

Regu

lar S

ale

westwood neighborhood

$57,500

$115,000

$172,500

$230,000

Sept 4, 2009Sept 18, 2009

880 ft2

Regu

lar S

ale

$57,500

$115,000

$172,500

$230,000

Sept 4, 2009Sept 18, 2009

880 ft2

760 ft2

Bank

owne

dSo

ld by

REO

Regu

lar S

ale

$57,500

$115,000

$172,500

$230,000

Sept 4, 2009Sept 18, 2009

760 ft2

880 ft2

$81,800 devaluationin 14 days

Regu

lar S

ale

Bank

owne

dSo

ld by

REO

autumn run neighborhood

$350,000

$700,000

$1,050,000

$1,400,000

Jan 31, 2007

Nov 12, 2010

Apr 10, 2

007May 29, 2

007Oct 2

6, 2007

Oct 31, 2

007Nov 9, 2

007Apr 4

, 2008

Apr 23, 2

008Mar 2

4, 2009

Mar 26, 2

010

Regu

lar S

ale

May 11, 2009

Jul 29, 2

009

$350,000

$700,000

$1,050,000

$1,400,000

Jan 31, 2007

Nov 12, 2010

Apr 10, 2

007May 29, 2

007Oct 2

6, 2007

Oct 31, 2

007Nov 9, 2

007Apr 4

, 2008

Apr 23, 2

008Mar 2

4, 2009

Mar 26, 2

010

Regu

lar S

ale

May 11, 2009

Jul 29, 2

009

Bank

owne

d* *

$350,000

$700,000

$1,050,000

$1,400,000

Jan 31, 2007

Nov 12, 2010

Apr 10, 2

007May 29, 2

007Oct 2

6, 2007

Oct 31, 2

007Nov 9, 2

007Apr 4

, 2008

Apr 23, 2

008Mar 2

4, 2009

Mar 26, 2

010

Regu

lar S

ale

Bank

owne

d

May 11, 2009

Jul 29, 2

009

* *

$765,000 devaluationover 3 years while

bank profits are at record highs

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

Willo

wbend Ct.

Sage Way

Capitola Dr.

Ullman Ct.

Chelebrooke Ct.

Willo

wbend Ct.Capito

la Dr.Capito

la Dr.Liberty

Dr.Capito

la Dr.Capito

la Dr.Liberty

Dr.Capito

la Ct.Liberty

Dr.

Liberty Dr.

Chelebrooke Ct.

Sage Way

8/2008 through 9/2010

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

Willo

wbend Ct.

Sage Way

Capitola Dr.

Ullman Ct.

Chelebrooke Ct.

Willo

wbend Ct.Capito

la Dr.Capito

la Dr.Liberty

Dr.Capito

la Dr.Capito

la Dr.Liberty

Dr.Capito

la Ct.Liberty

Dr.

Liberty Dr.

Chelebrooke Ct.

Sage Way

8/2008 through 9/2010

* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov) http://stevenwblack.com

bank profits*

home values

Q1 2008 through Q3 2010

* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov) http://stevenwblack.com

Q1 2008 through Q3 2010

$765,000 devaluation

napa overview

http://stevenwblack.com* Source: BAREIS

Pre-forclosure 367

Auction 444

Bank Owned 401

Total 1,212

As of January 14, 2011

http://www.bareis.com/

crime rate

According to a study by Woodstock Institute and the Georgia Institute of

Technology, a foreclosure rate of 3 percent leads to a

7 percent increase in crime*

* Source: National Association of Realtors

What Can You Do?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/3405811164/

what you can do

Get Educated

what you can do

Get Educated

Being here is a great start!

http://stevenwblack.comhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/3405811164/

what you can do

Get Help

http://www.flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/4748766022/ http://stevenwblack.com

http://www.flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/4748766022/

what you can do

Get Help*

Or someone like us*http://stevenwblack.com

The Process

the process

Draft a plan

the process

Real Estate Attorney

CPA

Realtor

Financial Advisor

Bankruptcy Attorney

the process

CPA

Realtor

Financial Advisor

Bankruptcy Attorney

the process

Execute

CPA

Realtor

Financial Advisor

Bankruptcy Attorney

Next Steps

we are here for you

http://stevenwblack.cominfo@stevenwblack.com

@stevenwblackFacebook

1.707.931.4700

mailto:info@stevenwblack.com?subject=I'm%20responding%20to%20your%20Homeowner's%20Educational%20Webinar

http://twitter.com/stevenwblack

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Napa-CA/Steven-W-Black-Associates-Real-Estate-Consulting/343003619014

Questions&

Answers

We Encourage SharingYou are free to download and distribute this presentation under

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same license and give credit toSteven W. Black & Associates

finishing up

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comprehensive napa valley housing market overview 01/22/11

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