coupling for esm: the igsm - stanford university · probablistic projections snowmass week 2 /...

CouplingforESM:TheIGSM

ErwanMonier

Massachuse9sIns:tuteofTechnology

July27,2016

Snowmass2016Week2

THEIGSM

Trace gas fluxes (CO2, CH4, N2O) and policy constraints

CO2, CH4, CO, N2O, NOx, SOx, NH3, CFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, VOCs, BC, etc.

Hydrology/ water resources

Agriculture, forestry, bio-energy, ecosystem productivity

Human health effects

Implementation of feedbacks is under development

Exchanges utilized in targeted studies

Exchanges represented in standard runs of the system

Earth System

Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA)National and/or Regional Economic Development,

Emissions & Land Use

Human System

Land use change

Atmosphere2-Dimensional Dynamical,

Physical & Chemical Processes

Ocean2- or 3-Dimensional

Dynamical, Biological, Chemical & Ice Processes

Urban AirshedAir Pollution Processes

LandWater & Energy Budgets (CLM)

Biogeochemical Processes (TEM & NEM)

Coupled Ocean, Atmosphere, and Land

Sea level change

Climate/ energy demand

Solar forcing

Volcanic forcing

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

EconomicProjec:on&PolicyAnalysis(EPPA):

MITEarthSystemModel(MESM):

•  EarthSystemModelofIntermediateComplexity(EMIC)

•  Land,atmosphereandocean•  Fullcarboncycle•  Atmosphericchemistry

•  Globalmodel•  Mul:-region(18)•  Mul:-sector•  Recursivedynamiccomputable

generalequilibrium(CGE)model

THEMESM

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

OCEANWEST EAST

DEPTH

ATMOSPHERE

SOUTH

NORTH

HEIGHT

LAND

PROBABLISTICPROJECTIONS

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

§  Computa:onalefficiencyo  Acentury-longruntakes12hourson1cpuo  Caneasilyrun1000ssimula:ons

§  Flexibilitytochangekeyclimateparameterso  climatesensi:vityo  strengthofaerosolforcingo  oceanheatuptakerateo  strengthofcarboncycle

Ø  PDFsofclimateparametersØ  Probabilis:cprojec:onsofclimatevariables

STATISTICALDOWNSCALING

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

Pa9ernscalingmethod:

WATERIMPACTS

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

BASIN-SCALE WATER

BALANCE AND

STRESS

WATER SYSTEM

MANAGEMENT ROUTING

RUNOFF

MUNICIPAL AND INDUSTRIAL

DEMAND

IRRIGATION DEMAND

ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS

POPULATION GDP

TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION

EPPA

ECONOMIC PROJECTION

AND POLICY

ANALYSIS

MESM

MIT EARTH SYSTEM MODEL

Fantetal(2016)Projec:onsofWaterStressBasedonanEnsembleofSocioeconomicGrowthandClimateChangeScenarios:ACaseStudyinAsia.PLoSONE11(3):e0150633.

Monthlyclimatevariables,biasedcorrected

DISTRIBUTIONSOFWATERIMPACTS

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

Fantetal(2016)Projec:onsofWaterStressBasedonanEnsembleofSocioeconomicGrowthandClimateChangeScenarios:ACaseStudyinAsia.PLoSONE11(3):e0150633.

CHANGEINWATERSTRESSINDEX(WSI)BY2050

INDIA CHINA

DYNAMICALDOWNSCALING

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

MITIGSM-CAMframework:

Trace gas fluxes (CO2, CH4, N2O) and policy constraints

CO2, CH4, CO, N2O, NOx, SOx, NH3, CFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, VOCs, BC, etc.

Hydrology/ water resources

Agriculture, forestry, bio-energy, ecosystem productivity

Human health effects

Implementation of feedbacks is under development

Exchanges utilized in targeted studies

Exchanges represented in standard runs of the system

Earth System

Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA)National and/or Regional Economic Development,

Emissions & Land Use

Human System

Land use change

Atmosphere2-Dimensional Dynamical,

Physical & Chemical Processes

Ocean3-Dimensional Dynamical, Biological, Chemical & Ice

Processes (MITgcm)

Urban AirshedAir Pollution Processes

LandWater & Energy Budgets (CLM)

Biogeochemical Processes (TEM & NEM)

Coupled Ocean, Atmosphere, and Land

Sea level change

Climate/ energy demand

Wind stress

Solar forcing

Volcanic forcing

CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, SOx, BC and O3

Land use change

SSTs andsea ice cover

CAM3

Atmosphere3-Dimensional Dynamical

& Physical Processes

LandWater & Energy Budgets (CLM)

Coupled Land and Atmosphere

Solar forcing

Volcanic forcing

3DatmosphericmodelisdrivenbyIGSM:-  SSTandseaice-  greenhousegasesconcentra:ons-  aerosolsconcentra:ons-  Landuselandcoverchange

AIRQUALITYANDHEALTHFRAMEWORK

Concentration Response Functions

Future Health Incidence Rate New Health Incidence Rate

Valuation (Cost of Illness, Lost Income, Contingent Valuation)

Economic Impact by Policy

Future Population Demographics

Change in O3 & PM Concentrations

populationpollution

Climate(IGSM-CAM)

Air Quality(CAM-Chem)

Population(BenMAP)

Health Incidence(BenMAP)

Valuation(BenMAP)

Change in Climate & Emissions

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

3-hourly3Dmeteorologicalfields(temp,humidity,wind…)nonbiasedcorrected

Anthropogenicandbiogenicemissions

AIRQUALITYANDHEALTHIMPACTS

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

Avoideddeaths lifeyearssaved(thousands)

2050 11,000(4,000−19,000) 570(210−940)

2100 52,000(19,000−87,000) 1,300(240−2,500)

2050 13,000(4,800-22,000) 620(230−1,000)

2100 57,000(21,000−95,000) 1,400(240−2,600)

REF->POL4.5

REF->POL3.7

Garcia-Menendezetal(2015)USairqualityandhealthbenefitsfromavoidedclimatechangeundergreenhousegasmi:ga:on.Environmentalscience&technology,49(13),pp.7580-7588.

AIRQUALITYANDHEALTHIMPACTS

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

Garcia-Menendezetal(2016)NaturalvariabilityinmodelingassessmentsofclimatechangeimpactsonU.S.ozonepollu:on.NatureClimateChange,underreview.

Changesinsummer8-h-maxO3by2100

AIRQUALITYANDHEALTHIMPACTS

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

Garcia-Menendezetal(2016)NaturalvariabilityinmodelingassessmentsofclimatechangeimpactsonU.S.ozonepollu:on.NatureClimateChange,underreview.

Changesinsummer8-h-maxO3by2100

SUMMARYOFDOWNSCALINGMETHOD

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

APPROACH STRENGTHS LIMITATIONS

IGSM-Pa9ernscaling(sta:s:calapproach)

•  Canemulatemul:plemodels•  Computa:onallyefficient•  Canderivefulldistribu:ons

•  LimitedtoTandP•  Limitedtomonthly:mescale•  Cannotsimulatechangesin

variabilityandextremes

IGSM-CAM(dynamicalapproach)

•  Canexplorenaturalvariabilityandextremesevents

•  NotlimitedtoT,P(candrivemodelsrequiringvariousinputvariablesor3Dfields)

•  Hightemporalresolu:on

•  Limitedtoasinglemodel•  Computa:onallyintensive•  Canonlyapproximatethe

boundsofthedistribu:ons

Strengths and limitations of the 2 downscaling methods

Limitedrepresentedfeedbacks(i.e.forregionalclimatechange)

MESM3D

EarthSystem

OCEANDynamical, Biological and

Chemical Processes

SEA ICEThermodynamical andDynamical Processes

LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,

Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics

COUPLEDSYSTEM

LAND ICEIce Sheet Dynamics and

Sea Level Rise

CHEMISTRYChemical Gases, Aerosols

and Carbon Cycle

ATMOSPHEREDynamical and Physical

Processes

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

MESM3D

EarthSystem

OCEANDynamical, Biological and

Chemical Processes

SEA ICEThermodynamical andDynamical Processes

LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,

Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics

COUPLEDSYSTEM

LAND ICEIce Sheet Dynamics and

Sea Level Rise

CHEMISTRYChemical Gases, Aerosols

and Carbon Cycle

ATMOSPHEREDynamical and Physical

Processes

- EFFICIENT -> DETAILED CHEMISTRYFLEXIBILITY TO CHANGE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY

AND STRENGTH OF AEROSOL FORCING

- METHANE MODEL- CROP MODEL- CARBON-NITROGEN- LAND-USE CHANGE- BIOGENIC EMISSIONS

- SIMPLE -> FULL DYNAMICAL- FLEXIBILTY TO CHANGE OCEAN HEAT UPTAKE RATE

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

IGSM3D3PATHWAYFORCOUPLINGBETWEENHUMANANDEARTHSYSTEMS:

EarthSystem

OCEANDynamical, Biological and

Chemical Processes

SEA ICEThermodynamical andDynamical Processes

LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,

Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics

COUPLEDSYSTEM

LAND ICEIce Sheet Dynamics and

Sea Level Rise

CHEMISTRYChemical Gases, Aerosols

and Carbon Cycle

ATMOSPHEREDynamical and Physical

Processes

Human System

CONSUMERSECTORS

PRODUCERSECTORS

PRIMARY FACTORS

GOODS & SERVICES

INCOME

EXPENDITURES

REGION A

REGION B

REGION C

TRADE FLOWSBETWEEN REGIONS

ANTHROPOGENICEMISSIONS

MORTALITY & MORBIDITY

CONCENTRATIONS OFAIR POLLUTANTS

HEALTH MODULE

PHYSICAL WATER SUPPLY,AGRICULTURE WATER NEEDS

WATER RESOURCEMANAGEMENT

MODULE

WATER AVAILABILITYFOR DOMESTIC, ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL USE

WATER NEEDS FORDOMESTIC, ENERGY

AND INDUSTRIAL USE

IRRIGATION AVAILABILITY

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY,BIO-ENERGY & ECOSYSTEM

PRODUCTIVITY

FERTILIZER APPLICATION,LAND-USE CHANGE

LAND PATHWAY

•  AIRQUALITY&HEALTH•  WATERRESOURCES•  LAND

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

IGSM3D3PATHWAYFORCOUPLINGBETWEENHUMANANDEARTHSYSTEMS:

EarthSystem

OCEANDynamical, Biological and

Chemical Processes

SEA ICEThermodynamical andDynamical Processes

LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,

Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics

COUPLEDSYSTEM

LAND ICEIce Sheet Dynamics and

Sea Level Rise

CHEMISTRYChemical Gases, Aerosols

and Carbon Cycle

ATMOSPHEREDynamical and Physical

Processes

Human System

CONSUMERSECTORS

PRODUCERSECTORS

PRIMARY FACTORS

GOODS & SERVICES

INCOME

EXPENDITURES

REGION A

REGION B

REGION C

TRADE FLOWSBETWEEN REGIONS

ANTHROPOGENICEMISSIONS

MORTALITY & MORBIDITY

CONCENTRATIONS OFAIR POLLUTANTS

HEALTH MODULE

PHYSICAL WATER SUPPLY,AGRICULTURE WATER NEEDS

WATER RESOURCEMANAGEMENT

MODULE

WATER AVAILABILITYFOR DOMESTIC, ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL USE

WATER NEEDS FORDOMESTIC, ENERGY

AND INDUSTRIAL USE

IRRIGATION AVAILABILITY

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY,BIO-ENERGY & ECOSYSTEM

PRODUCTIVITY

FERTILIZER APPLICATION,LAND-USE CHANGE

AGRICULTURE& FORESTRY

PATHWAY

•  AIRQUALITY&HEALTH•  WATERRESOURCES•  LAND

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

EarthSystem CHEMISTRY

Chemical Gases, Aerosols and Carbon Cycle

Human System

ANTHROPOGENICEMISSIONS

BIOGENICEMISSIONS

MORTALITY & MORBIDITY

CONCENTRATIONS OFAIR POLLUTANTS

HEALTH MODULE

IGSM3D3PATHWAYFORCOUPLINGBETWEENHUMANANDEARTHSYSTEMS:

EarthSystem

OCEANDynamical, Biological and

Chemical Processes

SEA ICEThermodynamical andDynamical Processes

LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,

Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics

COUPLEDSYSTEM

LAND ICEIce Sheet Dynamics and

Sea Level Rise

CHEMISTRYChemical Gases, Aerosols

and Carbon Cycle

ATMOSPHEREDynamical and Physical

Processes

Human System

CONSUMERSECTORS

PRODUCERSECTORS

PRIMARY FACTORS

GOODS & SERVICES

INCOME

EXPENDITURES

REGION A

REGION B

REGION C

TRADE FLOWSBETWEEN REGIONS

ANTHROPOGENICEMISSIONS

MORTALITY & MORBIDITY

CONCENTRATIONS OFAIR POLLUTANTS

HEALTH MODULE

PHYSICAL WATER SUPPLY,AGRICULTURE WATER NEEDS

WATER RESOURCEMANAGEMENT

MODULE

WATER AVAILABILITYFOR DOMESTIC, ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL USE

WATER NEEDS FORDOMESTIC, ENERGY

AND INDUSTRIAL USE

IRRIGATION AVAILABILITY

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY,BIO-ENERGY & ECOSYSTEM

PRODUCTIVITY

FERTILIZER APPLICATION,LAND-USE CHANGE

AGRICULTURE& FORESTRY

PATHWAY

•  AIRQUALITY&HEALTH•  WATERRESOURCES•  LAND

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

EarthSystem

LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,

Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics

Human System

PHYSICAL WATER SUPPLY,AGRICULTURE WATER NEEDS

WATER RESOURCEMANAGEMENT

MODULE

WATER AVAILABILITYFOR DOMESTIC, ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL USE

WATER NEEDS FORDOMESTIC, ENERGY

AND INDUSTRIAL USE

IRRIGATION AVAILABILITY

IGSM3D3PATHWAYFORCOUPLINGBETWEENHUMANANDEARTHSYSTEMS:

EarthSystem

OCEANDynamical, Biological and

Chemical Processes

SEA ICEThermodynamical andDynamical Processes

LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,

Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics

COUPLEDSYSTEM

LAND ICEIce Sheet Dynamics and

Sea Level Rise

CHEMISTRYChemical Gases, Aerosols

and Carbon Cycle

ATMOSPHEREDynamical and Physical

Processes

Human System

CONSUMERSECTORS

PRODUCERSECTORS

PRIMARY FACTORS

GOODS & SERVICES

INCOME

EXPENDITURES

REGION A

REGION B

REGION C

TRADE FLOWSBETWEEN REGIONS

ANTHROPOGENICEMISSIONS

MORTALITY & MORBIDITY

CONCENTRATIONS OFAIR POLLUTANTS

HEALTH MODULE

PHYSICAL WATER SUPPLY,AGRICULTURE WATER NEEDS

WATER RESOURCEMANAGEMENT

MODULE

WATER AVAILABILITYFOR DOMESTIC, ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL USE

WATER NEEDS FORDOMESTIC, ENERGY

AND INDUSTRIAL USE

IRRIGATION AVAILABILITY

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY,BIO-ENERGY & ECOSYSTEM

PRODUCTIVITY

FERTILIZER APPLICATION,LAND-USE CHANGE

AGRICULTURE& FORESTRY

PATHWAY

•  AIRQUALITY&HEALTH•  WATERRESOURCES•  LAND

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

EarthSystem

LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,

Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics

Human System

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY,BIO-ENERGY & ECOSYSTEM

PRODUCTIVITY

FERTILIZER APPLICATION,LAND-USE CHANGE

LAND PATHWAY

GOALOFNEWIGSMVERSION

§  BuildamorecompletehierarchyofIGSMframeworks

§  Towardamoreintegratedrepresenta:onofthehuman-earthsystem•  morerealis:c(?)

§  Arefeedbacksbetweenhumanandearthsystemsimportant?•  Land-usechange<->regionalclimatechange

§  Areinterac:onsbetweenmul:-sectorimpacts/co-benefitsimportant?

•  Airquality&land-usechange(biogenicemissions,ozonedamage)•  Waterscarcity&cropproduc:on(irriga:on)

§  Be9erexploretheroleofnaturalvariabilityonclimateimpacts

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

ALWAYSTHESAMEISSUES

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM

§  Spa:alresolu:on/complexityofmodelvs.uncertaintyanalysisIsittoocomplex?

§  Biascorrec:onvs.representa:onoffeedbacks

§  Temporalresolu:on/couplingstrategies

§  Consistencyindata/managementprac:ceswithintheframework

§  ManymoreIcouldn’tthinkaboutwhenIpreparedthepresenta:on…

THANKYOU

ANY QUESTIONS?

Snowmassweek2/CouplingforESM:theIGSM