courses of action to pass an immigration reform (rnc)

Immigration ReformCourses of Action for the Republican Party

1. Executive Summary

- 40 million people that live in the US are foreign-born. More than 11 million are undocumented.

- This is one of the most hot topics of the current political agenda.- Many political, social and economic leaders have spoken out about the

urgency of reforming the Immigration System.

2. Strategic Interest

Relevant from an economic, social, security and labor point of view.

Important companies and organizations are demanding a new immigration system.

Proximity of midterm elections and 2016 Presidential elections. This issue is important to gain Latino vote.

The cost of inactivity could be political, economic and social.

Republicans need to gain the support of the Latino community. In the last two presidential elections they have only gain the 31% of the Latino vote in 2008 and the 29% in the 2012 election.

3. Background

The Immigration Issue in figures

Source: Pew Research

Undocumented immigrants

The Immigration Issue in figures

Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Yearbook of Immigration Statistics: 2012 (Table 39)

358

240

189

Annual Deportations

The Immigration Issue in figures

Cost…

…Or opportunity?

Source: The Economist

US$14,5 billion spent on immigration enforcement

Obama’s broken promises

“I can guarantee that we will have in the first year an immigration bill (…)“, Obama 2008

“We consider him the deportation president, or the deporter-in-chief”, Janet Murguía (NCLR President) 2014.

Legislative paralysis

- Legislative paralysis: - Democrat Senate and Republican Congress. - Proximity of Midterm Elections.

- Current proposals: S. 744 and HR15.- Two issues at debate:

- Security border.- Path to citizenship.

4. Courses of Action

Courses of Action

Keep current course of action

Approve Senate’s Proposal

Start a meaningful conversation (RECOMMENDED)

1. Keep Current Course of Action - Erodes the Democrats.

- Satisfies GOP’s right wing.

PRO- Risk of losing Latino support in key States.

- Risk of consolidating anti-immigrants perception.

CONS

1. Keep Current Course of Action

Risk of being seen as anti-immigrant

“We have to criticize – hardly – Boehner and the Republicans. We must make them feel uncomfortable because of their anti-Latino and anti-immigrant attitude.

We love to say that Hispanos are not the asleep giant any more. Well, the time has come to show it.”

Jorge Ramos Avalos.

Source: Pew Research

2. Accept Senate’s Proposal PRO CONS

- Huge relief for Latinos.

- Republicans not seen as just self-interested.

- Could be seen as an Obama’s big victory.

- Could erode GOP position in certain hard-conservative States.

3. Start a meaningful conversation

- Encourage an internal debate at the Republican Party to reach a common position.- High media profile.- Positive terms and moderation of the language.- No immigration reform before the midterm elections.

Mid-term and Presidential Elections

The growth of the Latino electorade

"We need to campaign among Hispanic, black, Asian, and gay Americans and demonstrate we care about them, too. We must recruit more candidates who come from minority communities. But it is not just tone that counts. Policy always matters“, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus after 2012 elections.

Steps 2nd alternative: Immigration Conference1st alternative: Internal debate

Reaching a common position

ActionMidterm electionsMidterm elections

Start a meaningful conversation

PRO CONS-Improvement of general and Latino perception.-Gaining support for the Presidential elections, while avoiding the issue before the midterm elections.

- Possible intern criticism.

- Latinos might not trust the GOP until they draft a bill.