covering your local economy - part i by marilyn geewax

Covering Your Local Economy: It's Everybody's Business

In 2013 …

Marilyn Geewax NPR Senior Business Editor

mgeewax@npr.org @geewaxnpr

Geewax Marilyn

Akron  Beacon  Journal  

The  Atlanta  Journal-­‐Cons4tu4on  

Cox  Washington  Bureau  

NPR  

Geewax Marilyn

•  Currently senior business editor for NPR’s National Desk

•  She was the national economics correspondent for Cox Newspapers’ Washington Bureau.

•  Prior to 1999, worked for the Cox flagship paper, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

•  Geewax earned a master’s degree at Georgetown University, where she focused on international economic affairs.

•  From 2001 to 2006, Geewax taught a business journalism class as an adjunct professor at George Washington University.

What We Will Explore Today

•  The Great Recession – What Happened? •  How Are We Doing Now? •  What Is Driving the Recovery? •  What's Likely to Happen Next? •  Can You Tell If Your Area Is Doing Better

Or Worse Than the Rest of the USA?

Six Years of Troubles

Try to Remember… •  Think Back to 2007. •  Did You Realize Then That The U.S.

Economy Was Tanking?

You Rarely Know What’s Happening in Such a Big Economy

The slowdown in the housing sector “is a concern, but at this point we don't see it as being a broad financial concern or a major factor in assessing the course of the economy.” -- Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaking to the House in Feb. 2007.

2008 Was A Brutal Year For The Gross Domestic Product

Bureau of Economic Analysis data

Unemployment Shot Up, Then Drifted Down

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Searching for Work For Months – The Key Problem

So Where Are We Now? Based On What You're Seeing, What's Likely To Happen Next?

•  A recession •  A boom •  Slow growth •  I don’t know.

.

What Happen In The First Half of 2013?

Q. Another Slump? Or A Boom? A. Most economists say the economy has

been growing, but at a sluggish pace.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseri

Jobless Rate – The Key Number •  7.4 percent today, which is lousy •  But in October 2009, it was 10 percent

Nearly 12 Million Still Searching For Jobs

Nearly 5 million are Long-Term Unemployed

But We Have Good News, Too

Jobs Are Returning In Many Sectors And the Economy Has Been Growing For

Four Years

3.8 Million Job Openings – Mostly For Skilled Workers

GDP Is At Least Steady

New-Home Sales Up Sharply from the Same Time Last Year

Some Economists Think 2014 Could Bring Much Better Growth

Three reasons: 1.  Energy Expansion 2.  Agriculture Boom 3.  Construction Resumption

Booming Oil Industry Struggling to Fill Job Openings

Farmers Have Been Adding Land

Abby Fentress Swanson/Harvest Public Media

New-Home Sales Create Jobs for Landscapers, Furniture Stores, Etc.

How Can You Tell If Your Area Is Doing Better?

•  Jobs, Jobs, Jobs (BLS.gov) •  Home Prices (S&P/Case-Shiller Index) •  Home Foreclosures (RealtyTrac) •  Local Bankers (Is Lending Improving?) •  Local Car Dealers (What Are People

Buying? Trucks for Work??)

America Will Recover When Jobs Come Back