ctar residential market update - 2011 year in review
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An Update on Economic ConditionsRaymond Owens
February 15, 2012
3
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
2010 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:
Gross Domestic Product 2.3 0.4 1.3 1.8 2.8
Personal Consumption Expenditures 3.6 2.1 0.7 1.7 2.0
Nonresidential Fixed Investment 8.7 2.1 10.3 15.7 1.7Structures 10.5 -14.3 22.6 14.4 -7.2Equipment & Software 8.1 8.7 6.2 16.2 5.2…Contribution to Real GDP Growth -1.8 0.3 -0.3 -1.4 1.9
Residential Fixed Investment 2.5 -2.4 4.2 1.3 10.9
Exports of Goods & Services 7.8 7.9 3.6 4.7 4.7Imports of Goods & Services -2.3 8.3 1.4 1.2 4.4
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 2.7 0.4 1.3 2.7 0.9
LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]:
Change in Private Inventories 38.3 49.1 39.1 -2.0 56.0
2011
Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
-2.8 -5.9 -0.9 -0.1 -4.6
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
4
Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons
Jan.
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Jan. 243Dec. 203Nov. 157Oct. 112Sep. 202
Monthly Change
5
Personal Income & Expenditures
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
12 Month % Change
Real Personal Consumption Expenditure
Real Personal Income
Month over Month % Change
Oct. Nov. Dec.Income 0.4 0.1 0.4Expenditures 0.1 0.1 -0.1
Dec.
6
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Autos and Light Trucks
Light Trucks
Autos
Jan.14.1 mil.
Sales of Automobiles & Light TrucksMillions of Vehicles
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
7
New & Existing Single-Family Home Sales
Millions of Homes
Source: Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, & Haver Analytics
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Millions of Homes
Existing Home Sales(Left Axis)
New Home Sales(Right Axis)
Dec.4.1 mln.
0.3 mln.
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
8
Housing Starts
Single-Family Building Permits & Housing Starts
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
Millions of Units
Building Permits
Dec.
9
Private Multi-Family Starts & Building Permits
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Millions
Permits
Starts
December (millions)Permits 0.24Starts 0.19
Dec.
Net Absorptions & Employment
Source: Torto Wheaton, Bureau of Labor Statistics, & Haver Analytics
Thousands of Employees, Quarterly Averages Millions of Square Feet
Notes: Office employment is the sum of employment in information, financial activities, and professional and business services.
10
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Net Absorptions,Office Buildings
(Right Axis)
Changes in Employment(Left Axis)
Office Vacancies & Rents
Source: Torto Wheaton Research 11
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Percent Index
Vacancy Rate(Left Axis)
Torto WeatonReal Rent Index
(Right Axis)
Retail Vacancies & Rents
Source: Torto Wheaton Research 12
18
20
22
24
26
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Percent Index
Vacancy Rate(Left Axis)
Torto WeatonReal Rent Index
(Right Axis)
Industrial Vacancies & Rents
Source: Torto Wheaton Research
13
Percent Index
Vacancy Rate(Left Axis)
Torto WeatonReal Rent Index
(Right Axis)
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
South Carolina Existing Home Sales
Source: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
SAAR
, Tho
usan
ds
SAAR
, Tho
usan
ds
South Carolina (Left Axis) U.S. (Right Axis)
3Q: 2011US: 4,880,000
SC: 69,600
South Carolina House Price Index—FHFA
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency/Haver Analytics
-9.0
-6.0
-3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
YoY
% C
hg
U.S.
South Carolina
3Q: 2011US: -4.3%SC: -4.9%
South Carolina Building PermitsSingle-Family Homes
Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
YoY
% C
hg3-
mon
th m
ovin
g av
erag
e
U.S.
South Carolina
December 2011US: 2.5%SC: 9.1%
South Carolina Housing Starts
Source: Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ/Haver Analytics
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
SAAR
, tho
usan
ds
SAAR
, tho
usan
ds
South Carolina (Left Axis) United States (Right Axis)
South Carolina Mortgage Delinquency Rate 90+ days delinquent
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics18
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Perc
ent
Subprime Mortgages
Total Mortgages
Prime Mortgages
3Q 2011Subprime: 10.0%
Total: 3.0%Prime: 1.7%
19
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Feb. 10
10-Yr. Treasury Bond Rate
Corporate BBB Bond Rate
30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate
Corporate AAA Bond Rate
Capital Market RatesPercent
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
An Update on Economic ConditionsRaymond Owens
February 15, 2012
An Update on Economic ConditionsRaymond Owens
February 15, 2012
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