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www.ReconG2.comReconG2Competitive Intelligence for the Need to Know Enterprisewww.AuroraWDC.comAurora WDC
Business, Market & Competitive IntelligenceSee Clearly, Think Ahead, Break Through
Arik R. Johnson CVTC Daybreak Breakfast SessionCEO & Managing Director, Aurora WDC Eau Claire, WisconsinArik.Johnson@AuroraWDC.com Wednesday 5 March 2008
www.ReconG2.comReconG2Competitive Intelligence for the Need to Know Enterprisewww.AuroraWDC.comAurora WDC
Why do cars have brakes?
How you answer that question reveals a great deal about how you approach risk.
Most people would say brakes help slow you down… we think brakes help you go faster.
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Strategic Competitive Intelligence
The controls that accompany Enterprise Risk Management are a lot like the brakes on a car.
Intelligence is a sensory amalgam of mechanisms to enhance those controls:
• headlights (tactical)
• GPS (strategic)
• in-dash performance indicators (operational)
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CI is About Minimizing Threats & Maximizing Opportunities
• Minimizing Competitive Threats, e.g.– Understanding Threats to Current Business Status Quo:
Competitors, Legislation, Technology Shifts, Obsolescence, Substitutes, Customers Backwards Integrating, Vendors Forwards Integrating, etc.
• Maximizing Market Opportunities, e.g.– Identifying New Sales, Revenue and Profit Centers– Develop New, Innovative Products & Services– Benchmarking Cost Reduction and Efficiencies from
Direct Rivals & Best-of-Breed non-competitors
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SCIP Code of Ethics
1. To continually strive to increase respect and recognition for the profession.
2. To pursue one's duties with zeal and diligence while maintaining the highest degree of professionalism and avoiding all unethical practices.
3. To faithfully adhere to and abide by one's company's policies, objectives and guidelines.
4. To comply with all applicable laws. 5. To accurately disclose all relevant information, including one's
identity and organization, prior to all interviews. 6. To fully respect all requests for confidentiality of information. 7. To promote and encourage full compliance with these ethical
standards within one's company, with third party contractors, and within the entire profession.
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Deliver, InformDeliver, Inform& Recommend& Recommend
Planning & Planning & DirectionDirection
SecondarySecondaryResearchResearch
Analysis &Analysis &ProductionProduction
PrimaryPrimaryResearchResearch
Tactical Users & Strategic
Decision Makers
Needs
The Traditional CI
Cycle
Traditional CI Follows a Disciplined Process for Information Collection and Analysis
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Competitors, Customers & Technologies Are Complex Interdependencies
CI is About Learning to See Clearly through Market Illusions
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Three Intelligence Trends
• Organizational Acculturation – Everyone in the Firm is a Virtual Member of the CI Team
• Corporate Governance – Board-level Priority for Ensuring Reliability of the Earnings Forecast(Vioxx/Celebrex Impact, SarbOx 402, etc.)
• Disruptive Innovation – Predicting Outcome of Competitive Battles based on Product Strategy & Predictable Dynamics
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CI is About Better Decision-Making
• Strategic Decisions– What Business are We in and Where are New
Opportunities for Growth?
• Operational Decisions– How do we structure those business units to most
effectively compete for and win Market Share?
• Tactical Decisions– Which customers are available to us and how can we
convince them to select us over any and all functional equivalents?
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Your Company’s Plans and Execution
Vision and Grand Strategy
Strategic Plans
MarketSuccess
Operational Projects and
Programs
TacticalExecution
Other (More-or-Less) “Uncontrollables”
Competitors’ Plans and Actions
New Forms of Competition
X Y Z P Q R A B C
Indirect Competitors Direct Competitors
Governmentand Regulatory
The Economy Technology Market TrendsIndustry
RationalizationOther
Unknowns
Impacts on Planning & Execution
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The Product Life Cycle
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Strategic & Tactical Realms of Competitive Advantage
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CI is a Critical Element in Strategy
COMMERCIAL MARKETCOMMERCIAL MARKET STRUCTURE & RESOURCESSTRUCTURE & RESOURCES
Strategic PositionStrategic PositionStrategic Position
Competitive PositionCompetitive PositionMarket AttractivenessMarket Attractiveness
Scope & ContextScope & Context
Strategic IssuesStrategic Issues
InsightStakeholder Score Card
Financial PositionFinancial Position
GrowthGrowthEconomic ProfitabilityEconomic Profitability
Critical Success Factors & Key Performance Indicators Critical Success Factors & Key Performance Indicators
Performance Monitoring & Incentive CompensationPerformance Monitoring & Incentive Compensation
Organizational DesignOrganizational Design
Projects & ResourcesProjects & Resources
CAPITAL MARKETCAPITAL MARKET MANAGED PERFORMANCEMANAGED PERFORMANCE
Chosen Strategy
Scenarios & OptionsScenarios & Options
CreativityCreativity
Strategy ExecutionStrategy Formulation
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Porter’s Five Forces Model
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The 12 Application Priorities of CI
1. Current Competitor Activities and Strategy Monitoring2. Customers, Vendors and Other External Allied Monitoring3. Operational Performance Benchmarking4. Product/Service Sales and Marketing Support5. Strategic Probabilities and Possible Futures6. Internal Knowledge Management7. Intellectual Property Exploitation and Protection8. Mergers, Acquisitions, Alliance and Investment Support9. Long-Term Market Prospects & Spotting Weak Signal Blindspots10. Counter-Intelligence & Information Security11. Legislative and Regulatory Activity and Impact on Business Issues12. Executive Decision-Support, Risk Management & Strategy Planning
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Research Collection SourcesWhere does the information come from?
– Primary ResearchWe may share customers, prospects and suppliers who can be interviewed.Every company has knowledgeable employees with loose lips.
– Secondary ResearchCompanies release information for promotional, image and regulatory purposes.
No Company Operates in Isolation
Information is exchanged everywhere money is exchanged.
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Analysis is Key
“The competitor would make a good acquisition candidate. Its lean & mean structure would fit well with our current operations.”
Intelligence:The insight that will allow you to make an informed decision
“After gathering more operational information and running a side-by-side profit & loss analysis, it appears the competitor has become highly efficient. It exceeds industry standards and has become a best-in-class facility.”
Analysis:Distilled information
“Based on the D&B and the salesperson’s report, it appears the competitor has lost business.”
Information:A pooling of these bits of facts, observations and rumors
2001: “The D&B report told us that the competitors plant had 100 employees.”
2004: “One of our salespeople just passed by the competitor’s plant and spotted only 30 cars in the lot.”
Data:Scattered bits and pieces of facts, observations and rumors
The Difference Between Data and Intelligence
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Two Fundamental Competitive Analysis
Examples
SWOT AnalysisCore Competence
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Strategic Intelligence• Principles of Defensive Warfare
– Only the market leader should consider playing defense.– The best defensive strategy is the courage to attack
yourself.– Strong competitive moves should always be blocked.
• Principles of Offensive Warfare– The main consideration is the strength of the leader's
position.– Find a weakness in the leader's strength and attack at that
point.– Launch the attack on as narrow a front as possible.
• Principles of Flanking Warfare– A good flanking move must be made into an uncontested
area.– Tactical surprise ought to be an important
element of the plan.– The pursuit is just as critical as the attack itself.
• Principles of Guerilla Warfare– Find a segment of the market small enough to defend.– No matter how successful you
become, never act like the leader.– Be prepared to bug out at a moment's notice.
-- Jack Trout
GuerillaSmall Players
• Finding market small enough to defend
• Prepared to bug out at moment’s notice
FlankingNew Players
• Moving into uncontested area
• Element of surprise
OffensiveNo 2 or No 3
• Avoiding leader’s strengths
• Attacking leader’s weaknesses
DefensiveMarket Leaders
• Attacking themselves with new ideas
• Blocking competitive moves
The Strategy SquareThe Strategy Square
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Growth Vector Analysis• Growth Vector Analysis (GVA) reviews the different product alternatives available to the firm in
relation to its market options, not already being pursued by competitors. Four complimentary characteristics are used for defining common threads of strategy:
– Product-Market Scope specifies particular industries to which a firm confines its position.
– Growth Vector indicates the direction a firm is moving relative to current product-market posture (market penetration, market development, product development and diversification).
– Competitive Advantage defined as particular properties of individual product markets conveying a strong market position.
– Synergy is the combined effect on the firm’s resources that is greater than the sum of its parts.
Present Products Improved Products New Products
Existing Market
Market Penetration Product Extension Product Development
Expanded Market
Market Extension Market Segmentation / Product Differentiation
Product Development / Market Extension
New Market Market Development
Product/Service Extension & Market Development
Diversification
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Tactical CI Project Example: Cost Analysis
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Level of CI Involvement in M&AStage
ID Evaluate Due Consum-Criteria Targets Analyze Diligence Recommend Negotiation mation Integration
IntelligenceResearchBusiness Units
Finance Technical Assessment
LegalExecutives
M&A SpecialistsTransition Team
Logistics HR
Level of CIInvolvement
High
Low
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Seven Steps to Effective Competitive Benchmarking• Determine functional areas within your operation to be benchmarked. This is likely to
be those areas that will benefit most from the benchmarking process, based upon the cost, importance and potential of changes following the study.
• Identify the key factors and variables with which to measure those functions. Two general forms – wherewithal/resources and goals/strategy.
• Select the best-in-class companies for each area to be benchmarked -- those companies that perform each function at the lowest cost, with the highest degree of customer satisfaction, etc. The companies you select will be those that do whatever you’re measuring better than you do and/or are ones you wish to emulate or copy.
• Measure performance of the comparison companies for each benchmark being considered.
• Measure your own performance for each variable and begin comparing the results in an "apples-to-apples" format to determine the gap between your firm and the best-in-class examples.
• Specify programs and actions to meet and surpass the competition based on a plan developed to enhance those areas that show potential for compliment.
• Implement your improvement program by setting specific improvement targets and deadlines, and by developing a monitoring process to review and update the analysis over time. This will also form the basis for ongoing monitoring, revision and recalibration of measurements in future benchmarking studies.
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Key Intelligence Topics (KITs)
• Process of Interactive Dialog with Decision-Makers through KIT Interviews; Consists of 3 Protocols w/Subtle Differences:
1. Strategic Decisions/Issues
2. Key Marketplace Players
3. Early-Warning Topics
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KITs – Strategic Issues
Strategic Investment Decisions: Identify and assess changes in the competitive environment, possible future investments, including alliances, acquisitions, etc.
Should we expand our current production capacity or build new capacity with a more cost-effective manufacturing process?
What plans and actions must we take to maintain (our) technological competitiveness as compared with competitive alternatives?
New Product Development and New Market Launch: Assessment of leading competitors and the status of competing technologies.How and when will the competitors respond and how could they affect our plans?
Sales & Marketing Strategy as Positioning in the industry. Protection of IP and proprietary information and technology: Competitors efforts to acquire or
undermine it, and are there others interested in it? Provide advice for developing the company’s ongoing strategic plan by assessing the role of
risks and opportunities in achieving our business goals. Globalization & Outsourcing in the Industry: How/with whom should we proceed? International Market Development: Assess the current competitive situation and describe the
most likely future situational scenarios.
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KITs – Key Players
Context-specific Company & Market Profile Assessments of our competitors, including strategic plans, competitive strategies, financial & market performance, organization & key personnel, R&D, operations, sales & marketing, etc.
Identify Emerging Competitors, particularly those coming from different industries. Describe & Assess Current & Future Competitive Environment, including: customers and
competitors; markets and suppliers; production and product technologies; political and environmental; and the industry’s structure, including changes and trends.
New Customers, their changing needs and future interests: What are they and how are our competitors trying to satisfy them?
Identify and assess new industry/market players, including: suppliers, distributors, customers and/or competitors, that are considering entry into our business.
New Technology Development: Who are they and what are their plans and strategies for competing in our industry?
Marketshare and Historical Growth Data, including that of our competitors for comparison. Management support for regulatory and environmental activities for decision making. Industry, financial & customer community views, attitudes and perceptions regarding the
Positioning or Value of our brand, products and services. Perceptions by Financial & Investment Community of our Business & Industry
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KITs – Early Warning
Potential Areas for Disruptive Technological Breakthrough that could dramatically affect our current and future competitiveness, positively or negatively.
Technological Process Developments affecting either production capabilities, costs or product development, and their uses by competitors and others.
Performance of Key Suppliers - financial health, cost & quality issues, potential acquisition or alliances.
Potential for Disruption in Supply Chain and Change in Industry Procurement Practices. Change in Customer & Competitors Perceptions of our company, products and services. Companies and/or Combinations of Companies, considering possible entry into our business
or markets. Changes in international political, social, economic, environmental or regulatory situations
that could effect our competitiveness. Regulatory Issues: near-term changes and deviations in long-term trends; legislative changes
that could impact current regulatory status quo. Intelligence on Alliances, Acquisitions, and Divestitures among our Competitors, Customers
and Suppliers: Understanding the forces causing them and purposes of each deal.
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Creating the Integrated Watch List
• Norm-Deviating Behavior & Explanatory Hypotheses
• Three Methods for Developing KIT Indicators (Watch List):– Inference (Anomaly Scanning, Sensing & Weaving)– Scenarios (Planning for Alternative Futures & Potential
Outcomes)– Ex Post Facto (Historical Change Indicators)
• Pattern Recognition & Linkage Analysis are Key to Postulating About the Future
– Connecting the Dots
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Aggregate content,tag & categorize
Hypertext links to similar content
Personalization fromforms/questionnaires geodemographicprofiling
Searching forinformation
E-mailing informationto relevant recipients
Reformatting for multi-channel delivery, e.g.PDF to XML
Answering customerinquiries via a helpdesk
Manual ProcessesProcess Automation
Aggregation
Automatic Categorization
Hyperlinking
Profiling
Personalization
Collaboration
Delivery
Retrieval
Routing
Alerting
IntegrationThroughUnderstanding
Information Information Theory and Theory and Bayesian Bayesian InferenceInference
Notes
News Feeds
Internet
Database
Files
DocumentManagement
XML
Audio/ Media
Source Extraction & Pattern Recognition
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Success Breeds Complacency
“It is a classic conundrum for business titans: How much money and attention should be focused on a new, but growing, operation that is far less profitable than the core business?”
- Prof. Clayton Christensen, The Innovator's Dilemma
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The Duality Continuum of IntelligenceBoth Decisive & Incisive Sensing
Incisive
Scanning for Trends, there is no “Decision” to be made
Recognize “Pattern Vector” History
Framework for Interpretation
Implications for the Reader
Bottom-Up Exposition
Driven by Trends
Outcome is Observation
Emergent & Theoretical
Decisive
Frame of Reference is the Decision, Less Trend-Dependent
Framework for Current Analysis
Compares Options & Outcomes
Recommendations and Trust
Top-Down Imposition
Driven by Issues
Decision & Action vs. ‘Nariyuki’
Factual & Hypothetical
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The Insight Method• Take Nothing at Face Value• Get to the Facts at the Heart of an Issue• Explain Difficult Concepts, Don’t Write Around It• Speak to As Many Relevant People as Possible• Use Simple, Obvious Questions to Open Subjects• Don’t Echo Main Source, Find Other Views• Every Company, Person & Issue Has a History
that Drives Behavior Today• Sunday Times
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The Ideal Analyst = Investigative Journalist
• e.g. Maria Bartiromo (CNBC)– Argument/Idea Evangelist– Entrepreneurial Passion– Quick Study with Intense Curiosity– Instinctive but Empirical– Project/Deadline Manager– Librarian/Information Manager– Hard-Core Interviewer– Pattern Recognizant– Great Communicator– Persuasive Position Advocate
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Different Missions, Different Approaches
Specialist
Slower Production
Less Output, More Analytical
Agenda Driven by Contact Network
Lots of Subject Matter Knowledge
Seeks Explanation of the Subject
Investigative
Very Slow, Curious, Historical
Little Output, Highly Analytical
Questions Official Positions, Listens to Nonspokesmen
Operates Outside Routine Agenda of the Publisher
Generalist
In a Hurry
Lots of Output, Less Analytical
Agenda Driven by the Publisher
Little Knowledge of Subject Matter
Seeks Volume of Public Interest
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Consumers “Hire” Products to Do “Jobs” for Them
Concentrate Less on
What Customers “Want” and
More on What Customers “Need”
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Disruptive Innovation TheorySustaining InnovationsBetter Products Brought to Established Markets
Low-End DisruptionsTarget Overshot Customers with a Lower Cost Business Model
New-Market DisruptionCompete Against Nonconsumption
DifferencePerformanceMeasure
TimeNonconsumers or Nonconsuming Contexts
Performance
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Disruptive Technology
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Value Chain Evolution Theory
• Disruptive Business Models: Vertically Integrating VC to Improve What’s “Not Good Enough” in the company’s products and services judged by customers.
• Performance Defining Subsystems: Companies must control all those activities and combinations of activities in the value chain that drive the product performance characteristics that matter most to customers.
• Specialists will seek to control performance drivers based on differences in motivation and skills around a modular interface in the VC. (Sword & Shield)
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RPV Theory: Building Capabilities
Processes
Ways to Turn Resources into Products/Services
Hiring/Training
Product Dev.
Manufacturing
Budgeting
Research
Values
Prioritization Criteria for Decision-Making
Cost Structure
Income Statement
Customer Demand
Opp. Size
Ethics
Resources
Assets the Firm can Buy or Sell, Build or Destroy
People
Technology
Products
Equipment
Cash/Brand/Distr.
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Consumer Demand & Signals of Change
• Non-Market Contexts: External Forces (Government, Economics, etc.) Increasing or Decreasing Barriers to Innovation
• Undershot Consumers: Opportunities for Up-Market Sustaining Innovations
1. Overshot Consumers: Opportunities for Low-End Disruption, Shifting Profits by Specialist Displacements (Modularity) and the Emergence of Rules
2. Non-Consumers: Opportunities for New Market Disruptive Growth
Established Companies almost always
Lose to Disruptive Innovators
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Process of Predicting Industry Change
Signals
of
Change
Strategic Choices
Influencing
Success
Likely Outcome of
Competitive
Battles
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Assessment
Development
Pilot Test
Evaluation
Implementation
MONTHS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 15 18 21
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In-depth interviews with top management
Threshing out Global Chemicals’ specific needs
for Competitive Intelligence
Key Intelligence Topics
Evaluating current CI practices, systems,
difficulties & expectations
CI Capabilities & Uses
• define the role of CI in the company
• gauge existing level of CI awareness & acceptance
• match requirements with present capabilities
• identify intelligence gaps
• determine a potential communication structure for efficient flow of actionable CI
Assessment
Development
Pilot Test
Evaluation
Implementation
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Designing a customized CI system
Some key considerations:
• team leadership
• number of CI professionals in the team
• required skill or qualification
• location of the CI unit (regional, local or both)
• reporting lines (CEO, Marketing, Strategic Planning, etc)
• communication facilities & protocol
• links & access to internal resources
• level of external resources required to fill CI gap
• CI process flow
• roles in the CI effort (regional, local, business unit)
• standards & procedures (collection, analysis, reporting)
• use of technology
Assessment
Development
Pilot Test
Evaluation
Implementation
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Experimenting with a tailored CI prototype
Acceptance
Authority
Education
Designation
Project Execution
Monitoring
• by top management of the prototype
• ensure cooperation of pilot unit
• conduct CI information campaign
• assign & discuss roles
• integrating CI within the system
• launching specific tasks & projects
• provide guidance & trouble-shooting
Assessment
Development
Pilot Test
Evaluation
Implementation
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Measuring value & fine-tuning
Process
Outcome
Costs
Effort
Acceptance
Usability
Setting output
standards
Gauging goal attainment
Through
observation,
survey & in-
depth
discussion with
key users &
executives from
both regional &
local offices
Making required
adjustment
• Re-align
• Re-set
• Re-focus
• Re-define
• Re-examine
• Remove
• Review
• Re-test
Assessment
Development
Pilot Test
Evaluation
Implementation
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System roll-out to other business units
ADJUST• to enhance performance feature
• to adapt to changing needs & skills
PLAN• final system design
• implementation design
EXECUTE• by business / geographic unit
• conduct system-wide project
EVALUATE• as a stand-alone unit
• as part of the regional structure
Assessment
Development
Pilot Test
Evaluation
Implementation
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• CI needs vs. capabilities landscape
• Improvements on coordination, project management, KM inputs
• Prototype CI structure & system
• Pilot implementation plan, training manuals
• Result of test project
• Effectiveness of pilot program
• Recommended system adjustments
• Final structure, roll-out plans, resource requirement
• Result of system-wide test project
• System evaluation & recommendation for improvement
• Periodic review & consultation
Assessment
Development
Pilot Test
Evaluation
Implementation
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Key Executive Users of Intelligence
3rd Party CI support
External Competitive Environment
Central CI Unit
• regional & local coordination
• network of in-house experts & analysts
• collection workforce
• internal databases
Internal CI Initiatives
• CI research support
• on-going process consultation
• online databases
External CI Sources
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The CI Think Tank ModelTASKING > SENSING > INTERPRETATION
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Marshall McLuhan
“I don’t know who discovered water, but it wasn’t a fish.”
Strategy is concerned with what the corporation wants to do in the world, while Intelligence is focused on what the world wants to do to the corporation.
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Questions or Comments?www.ReconG2.com www.AuroraWDC.com
Arik R. JohnsonIntelligence Leadership InstituteArik.Johnson@AuroraWDC.com+01-715-720-1616
Derek L. JohnsonResearch & Analysis Bureau
Derek.Johnson@AuroraWDC.com+01-608-268-3470
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