d1.4.3 - seamless-if final version main features prepared by wp1 press esc

D1.4.3-

SEAMLESS-IF final versionmain features

Prepared by WP1Press ESC

D1.4.3

Triple I of SEAMLESS

Integrated framework for impact assessment (IA)Applications

Individual componentsInfrastructure software

Home

Main features of SEAMLESS-IF

Examples of applications

D1.4.3

Assessment Procedure

Main features of SEAMLESS-IF

Pre -modelling

Modelling

Post -modelling

Problem definition

Scenario description

Indicator development

Definition of simulation experiment

Model selection andcomposition

Parameterizationand

simulation

Post -modelanalysis

Visualization of results

Documentation/communication

Pre-modelling

Modelling

Post-modelling

Problem definition

Scenario description

Indicator selection

Definition of simulation experiment

Model selection andcomposition

Parameterizationand

simulation

Post -modelanalysis

Visualization of results

Doc umentation/communication

Dat

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dge

base

Use

rs/s

take

hold

ers

Pre -modelling

Modelling

Post -modelling

Problem definition

Scenario description

Indicator development

Definition of simulation experiment

Model selection andcomposition

Parameterizationand

simulation

Post -modelanalysis

Visualization of results

Documentation/communication

Pre-modelling

Modelling

Post-modelling

Problem definition

Scenario description

Indicator selection

Definition of simulation experiment

Model selection andcomposition

Parameterizationand

simulation

Post -modelanalysis

Visualization of results

Doc umentation/communication

Dat

a an

d kn

owle

dge

base

Use

rs/s

take

hold

ers

D1.4.3

• Regional: Sustainable water and nitrogen management, Nitrate directive in the Midi-Pyrenees region in France

• European: Trade Liberalisation applied in Europe

Baseline of SEAMLESS-IF (hard coded, common for both/all applications)

Applications

Main features of SEAMLESS-IF

D1.4.3

G20 (TC1) - scenario description

• Simplified representation of actual modalities• Export subsidies EU set to zero• Simulated tariff reductions:

– G20 proposal of December 2005 (G20)– December 6th 2008 agricultural modalities (WTO)

Applications

Developed countries Developing countries

Tiers G20 WTO Tiers G20 WTO

0 ≤ 20 45 50 0 ≤ 30 25 33.3

20 ≤ 50 55 57 30 ≤ 80 30 38.0

50 ≤ 75 65 64 80 ≤ 130 35 42.7

≥75 75 70 ≥130 40 46.7

Cap 100 n.a. Cap 150 n.a.

Developed countries Developing countries

Tiers G20 WTO Tiers G20 WTO

0 ≤ 20 45 50 0 ≤ 30 25 33.3

20 ≤ 50 55 57 30 ≤ 80 30 38.0

50 ≤ 75 65 64 80 ≤ 130 35 42.7

≥75 75 70 ≥130 40 46.7

Cap 100 n.a. Cap 150 n.a.

D1.4.3

Applications

SEAMCAP

EXPAMOD

FSSIM-MP

GTAP

APES

FSSIM-AM

NUTS-2 and EU indicators

Farm and regional

indicators

Non-agricultural

global indicatorsData of

Nuts-2 and EU

Data of activities in 13 regions (out of 300

regions)

Global CGE

Agriculture EU

Extrapolate farm to EU

Bio-economic farm model

Agricultural production & externalities

Trade liberalisation

D1.4.3

Applications

WTO proposal

Income declines in all E27 regions but Malta

Losses vary between 0.8 and -16.1%, with an average decline of -5.2% (excluding Aaland)

Change in agricultural income (%)

D1.4.3

Applications

WTO proposal

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

Cereals Feed Vegetable oils Dairy products Meat Fruit & veg Oilseeds

World EU27

Price change by product group (%)

D1.4.3

Applications

WTO proposal

Change in farm income per region (%)

D1.4.3

• Implementation of nitrate directive varies by regions:– Results for simulations in Midi-Pyrénées, similar analyses done

for other regions for which detailed data are available: Auvergne (FR), Zachodniopomorskie (PL), Sikasso and Koutiala (Mali)

• Nitrate directive in Midi-Pyrénées:– Improved management of nitrogen fertilization (alternative tech.)– Cross-compliance: 3% cut in premiums if technologies not usedOnly these two policy elements are implemented in FSSIM

– Limit to nitrogen in animal effluents to 170 kg/ha/year– Restriction of period for nitrogen application– Restricting fertilization near surface waters– Minimum quantity of vegetation in rainy periodsOther policy elements can be implemented in FSSIM

Applications

Nitrate directive (TC2) – scenario description

D1.4.3

Applications

Nitrate directive

FSSIM-MP

APES

FSSIM-AM

Farm indicators

Detailed data on

activities in 4 regions

Agricultural production & externalities

Data of baseline (prices, premiums) from

SEAMCAP (& GTAP)

Bio-economic farm model

Regional indicators

D1.4.3

base year

2013

(changes wrt base year)Baseline Nitrate

directiveTotal

Farm income (1000 €) 79 -7% -1% -8%

Premiums (1000 €) 41 -26% -1% -27%

Nitrate leaching (kg NO3/ha)

34 13% -29% -16%

Applications

Nitrate directive, example Midi Pyrenees

D1.4.3

Applications

Nitrate directive, example Midi Pyrenees, effects on labour use (h)

D1.4.3

Applications

Nitrate directive, example Midi Pyrenees, effects on yield (t/ha)

D1.4.3

Specifications of baseline

Applications

• Describes situation in 2013 starting from 2003 data• Changes in general economic environment derived from

projections of others (inflation; population growth; trends in supply, demand and prices for EU (DG-Agri) and rest of world (FAPRI, FAO))

• Trade: Uruguay, ACP and EBA, plus updates of regional agreements like NAFTA

• Domestic policy: CAP reform 2003 accounting for national differences in decoupling

• Can adjust standard baseline through running experiment and using this as reference point

Models and chains Data base

Indicators

Weather

Soil

Crops

Farms

Farm activities

Typologies

Indicators

Policies

Framework

Library

Factsheets

FSSIM-AM

FSSIM-MP

EXPAMOD

SEAMCAP

APES

Individual components

Not yet integrated

Stand-alone models

PICA

Main features of SEAMLESS-IF

Model chains

Examples of applications

Integrated model

Stand alone model

Individual components

D1.4.3

APES

Individual components

D1.4.3

FSSIM (bio-economic farm model)

Individual components

D1.4.3

Capri (agricultural sector model)

Individual components

D1.4.3

EXPAMOD (upscaling farm-market)

Individual components

D1.4.3

Model inputsModel outputsIntermediate resultsIndicators

Weather

Soil

Crops

Farms

Farm activities

Typologies

Indicators

Policies

Spatially data framework

Database

Administrative regions

Climate zones

Agri-environmental zones

stores

ModelsIndicatorsOntologyProjects

Links to

Individual components

Database

Database management with PgAdmin

Individual components

D1.4.3

Individual components

Examples of applications

Viability, performance, capital, maintenance, …

Sub-themes/issues

Ultimate goal, processes of achievement, means

Themes (goal based approach)

Sustainability, Sustainable development

Domains

Field, farm, region, country, EU, globe

Level of organisation (spatial scales)

Biophysical, economic, social, institutional

Dimensions

Viability, performance, capital, maintenance, …

Sub-themes/issues

Ultimate goal, processes of achievement, means

Themes (goal based approach)

Sustainability, Sustainable development

Domains

Field, farm, region, country, EU, globe

Level of organisation (spatial scales)

Biophysical, economic, social, institutional

Dimensions

Indicator framework

Classifiers of the goal-oriented framework

Home

Indicator framework

Individual components

D1.4.3

Indicator libraryList of available indicators (example)

Individual components

D1.4.3

Indicator factsheetsIndicator information box

Supplementary information

Individual components

SeamFrame

SeamGUI

Ontology

Database

SeamDBWMS

Replication

DomainManager

OpenMI

ProcessingEnvironment

Servlets

ModelWrappers

Core

Models

Requests

Requests

Hibernate

CodeGeneration

SeamFrame

Infrastructure software

Model linkingSeamFrame

Infrastructure software

APES EXPAMODFSSIM-MP

FSSIM-MPwrapper

APESwrapper

EXPAMOD wrapper

SeamFrame : Component Framework

JAVA

C# GAMS

SEAMCAP wrapper

SEAMCAP

Ontology

Dat

abas

e

FSSIM-AM

Visualiation of resultsSeamPRES

Infrastructure software

• Tables• Diagrams (Line, bar,

column, area, plot, pie)• Maps• …

SeamPRES work flowSeamPRES

Infrastructure software

OpenOpen Get DataGet Data

ViewView AdjustAdjust

ViewViewChange SelectionChange Selection

RestartRestart

SaveSave

Make SelectionMake Selection

End of presentation

D1.4.3-

SEAMLESS-IF final versionmain features

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