daily technical trader - qatar february 02
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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Tuesday, 02 February 2016
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price 1st
Target
QEWS 189.00 194.60
NLCS 11.75 11.57
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 9,547.83 0.70 8.2
Resistance/Support
Levels 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 9,600 9,800 10,000
Support 9,400 9,150 9,000
QSE Index Commentary
Overview: The QSE Index struggled to move in the same pace as it did in the sessions before. We can see that the Histogram’s movement backs the mentioned slow down; that might have an impact on the traders’ psychology to the negative. Expected Resistance Level: 9,600 Expected Support Level: 9,400
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 01 Feb 31 Jan %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 237.2 316.2 -25.0
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 509.4 507.1 0.5
Volume (mn) 8.8 11.4 -22.8
Number of Trans. 4,219 5,138 -17.9
Companies Traded 39 40 -2.5
Market Breadth 22:16 34:5 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 14,840.72 0.7 52.8
All Share Index 2,533.33 0.5 52.2
Banks 2,562.18 0.6 52.1
Industrials 2,848.33 0.0 51.2
Transportation 2,208.71 0.2 47.6
Real Estate 2,079.06 1.2 51.3
Insurance 4,047.28 -0.3 57.7
Telecoms 1,004.30 2.0 60.6
Consumer 5,251.64 0.1 49.5
Al Rayan Islamic 3,400.63 0.9 49.8
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
DBIS 12.79 -0.5 21.1
QCFS 28.15 0.0 27.6
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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QEWS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 189.00 1.07 100,056
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 190.00 194.60 200.00
Support 184.00 178.00 175.00
Commentary
Overview: Positive momentum started to buildup. The name has been volatile in the past couple of weeks, but there is a possible chance for it to move up further. Expected Target Price: QR194.60 – QR200.00 A price breakaway above QR190.00 triggers the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR178.00
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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NLCS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 11.75 -1.26 133,616
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 12.00 12.25 12.37
Support 11.75 11.57 11.42
Commentary
Overview: Unlike most of the listed shares, NLCS’ price did not create a positive failure swing price move. In addition, we noticed the creation of an Evening Doji Star. We realize that the candle’s significance comes after a long trend, but this one took place after a bounce. Expected Target Price: QR11.57 – QR11.42 A price breach below QR11.75 triggers the sell recommendation.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3rd
2nd
1st
Pivot 1st
2nd
3rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 9,547.83 9,361.91 9,416.18 9,449.70 9,503.97 9,558.24 9,591.76 9,646.03 9,835.72 10,647.61 11,285.74
Total Return 14,840.72 14,551.74 14,636.09 14,688.20 14,772.55 14,856.90 14,909.01 14,993.36 15,288.21 16,550.19 17,541.03
All Share 2,533.33 2,492.54 2,504.70 2,512.22 2,524.39 2,536.55 2,544.07 2,556.24 2,621.19 2,834.87 3,010.41
Al Rayan Islamic 3,400.63 3,313.60 3,340.73 3,357.48 3,384.60 3,411.73 3,428.48 3,455.60 3,609.77 3,974.67 4,284.92
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 34.05 33.25 33.52 33.68 33.95 34.22 34.38 34.65 35.34 38.99 42.29
CBQK 41.00 40.60 40.79 40.91 41.10 41.29 41.41 41.60 43.74 49.01 52.41
DHBK 36.95 35.95 36.24 36.41 36.70 36.99 37.16 37.45 41.99 45.75 49.53
QIBK 92.00 85.47 87.34 88.49 90.37 92.24 93.39 95.27 102.12 109.67 108.33
QIIK 64.80 63.93 64.32 64.55 64.93 65.32 65.55 65.93 63.50 69.10 73.93
Insurance
QATI 83.10 81.70 82.46 82.94 83.70 84.46 84.94 85.70 81.34 87.36 90.88
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 88.70 83.77 86.44 88.09 90.77 93.44 95.09 97.77 110.94 136.60 156.43
Industrials
IQCD 105.00 102.53 103.34 103.83 104.63 105.44 105.93 106.73 102.43 112.22 124.94
QEWS 189.00 186.33 187.10 187.57 188.33 189.10 189.57 190.33 202.13 207.06 211.44
GISS 42.95 42.02 42.34 42.54 42.87 43.19 43.39 43.72 47.74 55.34 65.61
QIGD 28.00 26.73 27.23 27.54 28.03 28.53 28.84 29.33 34.22 39.79 45.17
Real Estate
BRES 32.85 31.82 32.24 32.50 32.92 33.34 33.60 34.02 37.38 40.60 45.01
UDCD 18.29 17.87 18.01 18.10 18.24 18.38 18.47 18.61 19.78 21.78 22.84
ERES 14.70 13.65 13.99 14.21 14.56 14.90 15.12 15.47 15.03 16.92 17.40
MRDS 11.73 11.06 11.28 11.42 11.64 11.86 12.00 12.22 13.51 14.85 16.55
Telecommunication
ORDS 81.00 78.07 78.91 79.43 80.27 81.11 81.63 82.47 72.59 74.05 80.30
VFQS 10.80 10.43 10.57 10.65 10.78 10.92 11.00 11.13 11.49 12.69 14.43
Transportation
QGTS 21.25 20.38 20.63 20.79 21.03 21.28 21.44 21.68 22.38 23.07 22.65
QNNS 87.10 86.83 86.99 87.08 87.23 87.39 87.48 87.63 92.83 95.41 96.66 Sources: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
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Contacts:
Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian
Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa
QNB Financial Services SPC
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.
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