dan m. kahan yale university & 10^3 others two science communication puzzles

Dan M. KahanYale University

& 10^3 others

Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES-0922714 Annenberg Center for Public Policy Skoll Global Threats Fund

www.culturalcognition.net

Two science communication puzzles . . .

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Human caused Naturally caused No warming

Beliefs on global temperature “increase in recent decades”

N = 1,885. Annenberg Public Policy Center & Cultural Cognition Project. Nationally representative sample, June 2014 (YouGov). CIs are 0.95 confidence intervals for estimated general population means.

N = 1,737. Annenberg Public Policy Center & Cultural Cognition Project. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014. CIs are 0.95 confidence intervals for estimated general population means. Subjects classified in relation to “Left_Right,” a continuous political outlook scale formed by aggregating responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.78).

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Human caused Naturally caused No warming

Beliefs on global temperature “increase in recent decades”

N = 1,885. Annenberg Public Policy Center & Cultural Cognition Project. Nationally representative sample, June 2014 (YouGov). CIs are 0.95 confidence intervals for estimated general population means.

> avg Left_Right< avg Left_Right

N = 1,737. Annenberg Public Policy Center & Cultural Cognition Project. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014. CIs are 0.95 confidence intervals for estimated general population means. Subjects classified in relation to “Left_Right,” a continuous political outlook scale formed by aggregating responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.78).

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Rep. Frank Lucas (R. Okla.)

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Rep. Frank Lucas (R. Okla.)

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Oops!

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Climate-change resistant chicken!

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

Puzzle No. 2:

Puzzle No. 2: Do people who disbelieve in evolution like science documentaries about evolution?

Puzzle No. 2: Do people who disbelieve in evolution like science documentaries about evolution?

N = 1012. Nationally representative sample From Kahan, D.M. Climate-Science Communication and the Measurement Problem. Advances in Political Psychology 36, 1-43 (2015).

True False

“Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false)

The “missing audience hypothesis . . . ”

The “missing audience hypothesis . . . ”

En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

The “missing audience hypothesis . . . ”

En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

The “missing audience hypothesis . . . ”

En

gag

emen

t

“Natural audience hypothesis”

“Missing audience hypothesis”

Science Curiosity

?

a cool show . . .

The “missing audience hypothesis . . . ”

YIF Clip: Origins of color vision

The “missing audience hypothesis . . . ”

En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

Existing audience

“Missing audience”

The “missing audience hypothesis . . . ”

En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

Existing audience

“Missing audience”

Test of Science Related Attitudes (TOSRA)

I am curious about the world in which we live I find it boring to hear about new ideas I would enjoy visiting a science museum at the weekend I would like to be given a science book as a present I get bored when watching science programs on TV

State of the art “Science Curiosity”/“curiosity”

“Science Curiosity Index”

1. Measures: mixed strategy

2. Psychometric properties

3. Validation . . .

Sample self-report item

Sample self-report item

Sample (self-report) behavior

Sample (self-report) behavior

Performance measure

“Science Curiosity Index”

1. Measures: mixed strategy

2. Psychometric properties

3. Validation . . .

BSCIENCE

science curiosity

“Science Curiosity Index” (SCI)

science curiosity

Read science book in last yrVisited science lecture in last yr

“Science Curiosity Index”

1. Measures: mixed strategy

2. Psychometric properties

3. Validation . . .

The “missing audience hypothesis . . . ”

En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

Existing audience

“Missing audience”

The “missing audience hypothesis . . . ”

En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

Existing audience

“Missing audience”

Self-report engagement

Behavioral engagement

“Ordinary Science Intelligence” Assessment (“OSI”)

OSI_1.0 OSI_2.0

“Ordinary Science Intelligence” Assessment (“OSI”)

Relia

bilit

y (1

-[1/I])

Ordinary science intelligence

2PL Item resonse theory scaling

98th percentile50th percentile 86th percentile14th percentile2nd percentile

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

-2 -1 0 1 2

Ordinary Science Intellience

Eng

agem

ent

Engagement with clip: SCI vs. OSI

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

-2 -1 0 1 2

Eng

agem

ent

Ordinary Science Intellience

Engagement with clip: SCI vs. OSI

Science Curiosity Index

Engagement with clip: SCI vs. OSI

SCI

OSI

Scale percentile

Eng

agem

ent

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

1st 16th 50th 84th 99th

Ordinary Science Intellience

Science Curiosity Index

bars denote 0.95 CIs

The “missing audience hypothesis . . . ”

En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

Existing audience

“Missing audience”

The “missing audience hypothesis . . . ”

En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

Existing audience

“Missing audience”

The “missing audience hypothesis . . . ”

En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

Existing audience

“Missing audience”

SCI: group “differences” . . .

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5Science Curiosity Index

high religiosity

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5Science Curiosity Index

low religiosity

M = 0.10 (0.03) M = - 0.09 (0.03)

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Abortion procedure

Abortion procedure

Risk Perception KeyLow RiskHigh Risk

Individualism Communitarianism

Environment: climate, nuclear

Guns/Gun Control

Guns/Gun Control

HPV Vaccination

HPV Vaccination

Gays military/gay parenting

Gays military/gay parenting

Environment: climate, nuclear

hierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians

egalitarian communitariansegalitarian individualists

Cultural Cognition Worldviews

cats/stupid birds

cats/stupid birds

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Individualism Communitarianism

Environment: climate, nuclear

Environment: climate, nuclear

Cultural Cognition Worldviews

Risk Perception KeyLow RiskHigh Risk

The “missing audience”????!!!!!

Dalets are pro-science/technology

Puzzle No. 2: Do people who disbelieve in evolution like science documentaries about evolution?

N = 1012. Nationally representative sample From Kahan, D.M. Climate-Science Communication and the Measurement Problem. Advances in Political Psychology 36, 1-43 (2015).

True False

“Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false)

SCI: group “differences” . . .

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5Science Curiosity Index

high religiosity

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5Science Curiosity Index

low religiosity

M = 0.10 (0.03) M = - 0.09 (0.03)

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

eng

agem

ent

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

Engagement: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers”

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

eng

agem

ent

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

Engagement: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers”

Evolution believer

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

eng

agem

ent

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

Engagement: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers”

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

en

ga

ge

me

nt

-2 -1 0 1 2science interest

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

Engagement: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers”

shaded regeions represent 0.95 confidence zones for estimated means.

Science Curiosity

Engagement deficit: Evolution “belief” vs. cultural style ...

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

e_

irt

-2 -1 0 1 2science interest

linear regression/0.95 CI

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

e_

irt

-2 -1 0 1 2science interest

linear regression/0.95 CI

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

Everyone else

dalets

Enga

gem

ent I

ndex

OSI OSI

0

.25

.5

.75

1

pro

ba

bili

ty o

f re

qu

est

ing

fu

ll sh

ow

-2 -1 0 1 2science interest

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

Request full show: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers”

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

pro

bab

ility

1st 16th 50th 84th 99thScience Interest (percentile)

Request full show: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers”

Colored bars reflect 0.95 level of confidence

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

Was the information “believable”?

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

“I found the information in the documentary convincing.”

“It seemed like the documentary supplied strong evidence of how humans acquired color vision.”

Science Curiosity Science Curiosity

Was the information “believable”?

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

“I found the information in the documentary convincing.”

Evolution believer Evolution believer

“It seemed like the documentary supplied strong evidence of how humans acquired color vision.”

Science Curiosity Science Curiosity

Was the information “believable”?

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

“I found the information in the documentary convincing.”

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

“It seemed like the documentary supplied strong evidence of how humans acquired color vision.”

Science Curiosity Science Curiosity

Was the information “believable”?

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

OSI item response profile

OSI item response profile

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

“I found the information in the documentary convincing.”

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

“It seemed like the documentary supplied strong evidence of how humans acquired color vision.”

Science Curiosity Science Curiosity

Was the information “believable”?

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

“I found the information in the documentary convincing.”

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

“It seemed like the documentary supplied strong evidence of how humans acquired color vision.”

Science Curiosity Science Curiosity

Was the information “believable”?

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

0

.25

.5

.75

1pr

obab

ility

of a

gree

ing

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

Ordinary Science Intelligence Ordinary Science IntelligenceOrdinary Science Intelligence

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

0

.25

.5

.75

1pr

obab

ility

of a

gree

ing

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

Ordinary Science Intelligence Ordinary Science Intelligence

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

“I found the information in the documentary convincing.”

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

“It seemed like the documentary supplied strong evidence of how humans acquired color vision.”

Science Curiosity Science Curiosity

Was the information “believable”?

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

0

.25

.5

.75

1pr

obab

ility

of a

gree

ing

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

Ordinary Science Intelligence Ordinary Science IntelligenceOrdinary Science Intelligence

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

0

.25

.5

.75

1pr

obab

ility

of a

gree

ing

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

Ordinary Science Intelligence Ordinary Science Intelligence

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

SCI, OSI, Evolution disbelief & engagement

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

pro

bab

ility

1st 16th 50th 84th 99thScience Interest (percentile)

Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever

Science Curiosity (percentie)Colored bars reflect 0.95 level of confidence

Pro

b. o

f req

uest

ing

full

docu

men

tary

Puzzle No. 2: Do people who disbelieve in evolution like science documentaries about evolution?