data analysis and forecasting project – interim report delivered to the djj january 2008 jennifer...

Data Analysis and Data Analysis and Forecasting Project – Forecasting Project –

Interim ReportInterim ReportDelivered to the DJJ

January 2008Jennifer Lewis Priestley, Ph.D.

Shan Muthersbaugh, MS CandidateKennesaw State University

2

Overview of Analysis

This interim report provides descriptive statistics on existing data fromthree sources:

1.The Department of Juvenile Justice2.The Administrative Office of the Courts3.The U.S. Census Bureau

The present analysis was executed to develop a finer understandingof the trends and patterns which may affect future forecasts.

3

Overview of AnalysisThis analysis is arranged in the following order:

At Risk Population Filing Population

Legal Status• Intakes• Probation• STP• Commitments

Placement• RYDC• STP

• RYDC• At Home• NSC• YDC

• Commitment• RYDC• At Home• NSC• YDC

All Legal Status and Placements wereanalyzed by:

• Region• Gender• Ethnicity• MSO Type

Placements were also analyzed by ALOS and ADP.

Observation:

According to the US Census, Georgia Population of 10-16 Years has increased steadily since the 2000 Census.

Analysis:

Data Source:

U.S. Census

http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/asrh/files/CC-EST2006-alldata.txt

Based on 159 Counties

4

At Risk Population – 10 to 16 Year Olds

5

At Risk Population (10-16) by Region

Observation:

Region 3 has exhibited steady growth since FY2000 – annualized average growth rate of 2.9%. Regions 1 and 2 exhibited annualized average growth rates of 1.9% and 2.2%, respectively. Regions 4 and 5 were relatively flat.

Analysis:

Data Source:

U.S. Census

www.census.gov/popest/counties/asrh/files/CC-EST2006-alldata.txt

Based on 159 Counties

Observation: The number of Unruly and Delinquent Filings has remained fairly consistent from CY2004 to CY2006.

Analysis:

Data Source: Administrative Office of the Courts. Contact – Tiffany Peete (404-656-6447)

Filings include all 159 Counties.

Note that for each year, missing values for a small number of counties (10> was imputed). As a result, the total figures are slightly higher than that reported by the AOC.

6

Filing Population

7

Filing Population by RegionObservation:The number of Delinquent and Unruly Filings varies by region. Region 1 has experienced a steady increase from FY2004 to FY2006. The average annualized increase was 6.4%. The other regions were relatively stable or negative.

Analysis:

Data Source:

Administrative Office of the Courts. Contact – Tiffany Peete (404-656-6447)

Filings include all 159 Counties.

Note that for each year, missing values for a small number of counties (10> was imputed). As a result, the total figures are slightly higher than that reported by the AOC.

8

Legal Status (Intakes)

Observation: The overall number of Intakes has increased fairly steadily. The average yearly increase between FY2003 and FY2007 is about 7.3%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007)

Based on 142 Counties

9

Intakes as a % of At Risk Population: by Region

Observation: The number of Intakes as a % of the At Risk Population has increased since FY2003 for all regions – but at varying rates

Analysis:

Data Source: Intakes come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007).

At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 142 Counties

10

Observation: The number of Intakes as a % of the At Risk Population has increased since FY2003 for both genders. However, the rate of increase for males is higher than the rate of increase for females.

Analysis:

Data Source: Intakes come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007).

At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 142 Counties

Intakes as a % of At Risk Population: by Gender

11

Legal Status - Intakes: Region 1

Observation: The overall number of Intakes in Region 1 has increased steadily. The average yearly increase between FY2003 and FY2007 is about 7.2%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007)

Based on 142 Counties

12

Legal Status – Intakes: Region 2

Observation: The overall number of Intakes in Region 2 has been fairly steadily. The average yearly increase between FY2003 and FY2007 is about 5.5%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

13

Legal Status – Intakes: Region 3

Observation: The overall number of Intakes in Region 3 has been fairly steadily. The average yearly increase between FY2003 and FY2007 is about 9.3%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

14

Legal Status – Intakes: Region 4

Observation: Unlike the other regions, Region 4 does not demonstrate the same trend. The average yearly increase between FY2003 and FY2007 is about 7.8%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

15

Legal Status – Intakes: Region 5

Observation: Unlike the other regions, Region 5 does not demonstrate the same trend. The average yearly increase between FY2003 and FY2007 is about 7.7%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

16

Observation: Male intakes has grown at a faster rate than female intakes. Male growth = 7.6% versus Female growth = 6.6%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

Legal Status – Intakes: Gender

17

Legal Status – Intakes: Black

Observation: Black intakes have grown at an average rate of 11.5% since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

18

Legal Status – Intakes: White

Observation: White intakes have grown at an average rate of 3.4% since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

19

Legal Status – Intakes: Hispanic

Observation: Hispanic intakes have grown at an average rate of 14.7% since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

2020

Legal Status – Intakes: Ethnicity

Observation: Of total intakes, the percentage of Black intakes is increasing, albeit at a decreasing rate. Although Hispanic intakes is growing, Hispanics are not comprising a significant increase in overall intakes, because the overall numbers are still fairly small.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

Note that “other” race was omitted due to small numbers.

21

Hispanic Population Trends

Observation: The total Hispanic population is GA is growing at an average annual average rate of 9.9%. It should be noted that there is a larger number of Hispanic Males than Hispanic Females (the reverse is true for the Black population, while the White population has approximately equal numbers of males and females).

Analysis:

Data Source: U.S. Census http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/asrh/files/CC-EST2006-alldata.txt Based on 159 Counties

22

Legal Status – Intakes: Drug Sales (MSO1)

Observation: Intakes related to Drug Sales has experienced moderate growth since FY2003 – annual average growth = 7.4%

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

23

Legal Status – Intakes: Drug Use (MSO2)

Observation: Intakes related to Drug Use has experienced moderate growth since FY2003 – annual average growth = 8.5%. However, the annual growth from 2005 to 2007 was 13.4%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

24

Legal Status – Intakes: Property (MSO3)

Observation: Intakes related to Property appears to follow the same general trend as Drug Usage. While the annual growth rate for property intakes has been moderate at a rate of 3.4%, the average rate from FY2005 to FY2007 is 9.1%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

25

Legal Status – Intakes: Public Order (MSO4)

Observation: Intakes related to Public Order have demonstrated a strong increase since FY2003. The average annual increase was 14.5%

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

26

Legal Status – Intakes: Non-Violent Sex (MSO5)

Observation: Intakes related to Non Violent Sex have demonstrated a slight decrease since FY2003 – average annual decrease of 5.9%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

27

Legal Status – Intakes: Status (MSO6)

Observation: While the overall annual increase in status intakes has increase dramatically since FY2003 – 17.1% annual increase – the change from FY2006 to FY2007 was a slight decrease.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

28

Legal Status – Intakes: Traffic (MSO7)

Observation: The number of traffic intakes has remained fairly constant since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

29

Legal Status – Intakes: Violent (MSO8)

Observation: The growth rate of violent intakes has been moderate at an average annual rate of 5.8%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

30

Legal Status – Intakes: Violent Sex (MSO9)

Observation: While the average growth of violent sex intakes has exhibited a slight decrease annual rate of change since FY2003, the change from FY2006 to FY2007 was 18.4%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

31

Legal Status – Intakes: Technical (MSO10)

Observation: The number of technical intakes has remained fairly constant since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

32

Legal Status – Intakes: Weapons (MSO11)

Observation: The growth rate in weapons intakes has increased by an annual growth rate of 13.5%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

33

Legal Status - Probation

Observation: The overall number of Probations increased and then decreased.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007)

Based on 142 Counties

34

Probation as a % of At Risk Population: by Region

Observation: The number of Probations as a % of the At Risk Population has decreased since FY2005 for all regions – but at varying rates

Analysis:

Data Source: Intakes come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007).

At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 142 Counties

3535

Probation as a % of At Risk Population: by Region

Observation: The number of Probations as a % of the At Risk Population has decreased since FY2005 for both Genders.

Analysis:

Data Source: Intakes come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007).

At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 142 Counties

36

Legal Status – Probation: Region 1

Observation: The number of juveniles on Probation in Region 1 changed year over year. The annualized change from FY2003 to FY2007 was 3.5%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007)

Based on 142 Counties

37

Legal Status – Probation: Region 2

Observation: The number of juveniles on Probation in Region 2 has decreased since FY2004. The annualized decrease from FY2003 to FY2007 is -3.9%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007)

Based on 142 Counties

38

Legal Status – Probation: Region 3

Observation: The number of juveniles on Probation in Region 3 increased in FY2004, and then decreased until FY2006.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007)

Based on 142 Counties

39

Legal Status – Probation: Region 4

Observation: The number of juveniles on Probation in Region 4 increased in FY2004, and then decreased until FY2006.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007)

Based on 142 Counties

40

Legal Status – Probation: Region 5

Observation: The number of juveniles on Probation in Region 5 increased from FY2003 to FY2005, and then decreased.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007)

Based on 142 Counties

41

Legal Status – Probation: Gender

Observation: Probations demonstrated roughly the same trend for both genders until FY2007, when Females decreased while Males increased.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

42

Legal Status – Probation: Black

Observation: Black probations were increasing until FY2005, when they decreased. There was a slight increase from FY2006 to FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

43

Legal Status – Probation: White

Observation: White probations decreased from FY2004 to FY2006. There was a slight increase in FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

44

Legal Status – Probation: Hispanic

Observation: Hispanic probations have demonstrated the same trend as White and Black probations - a decrease from FY2004 to FY2006 and an increase in FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

45

Observation: Of total Probations, Black juveniles comprise over 50%. While the numbers are still low, the percentage of total Probations comprised of Hispanic juveniles has increased from 2.9% in FY2003 to 3.7% in FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

Note that “other” race was omitted due to small numbers.

Legal Status – Probation: Ethnicity

46

Legal Status – Probation: ALOS by Regions

Observation: The Average Length of Stay in a Probation status varies significantly by Region, with the shortest stay in Region 4 (which is also decreasing) and the longest stay in Region 5. It is worth noting that all regions decreased from FY2006 to FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

47

Legal Status – Probation: ADP by Region

Observation: The Average Daily Population varies significantly across the Regions. Region 2 has experienced the greatest decrease in ADP, followed by Region 5.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 142 Counties

Observation: STP legal status decreased significantly from FY2005 to FY2006.

Analysis:

Data Source:

DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007)

Includes 159 counties

48

Legal Status - STP

Observation: Consistent with the trend for STP overall, the number of Legal Status STP for Region 1 decreased significantly from FY2004 to FY 2006. However, FY2007 was an increase over FY2006.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007)

Includes 159 Counties

49

Legal Status – STP: Region 1

50

Legal Status – STP: Region 2

Observation: Region 2 has experienced a dramatic decline in the number of STP since FY2004. The overall annualized decline is 10%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007)

Includes 159 Counties

50

51

Legal Status – STP: Region 3

Observation: Consistent with the trend for STP in Region 1, the number of Legal Status STP for Region 3 decreased dramatically from FY2004 to FY2006. Then, in FY2007, there was an increase. The change from FY2006 to FY2007 was 23%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007)

Based on 159 Counties

52

Legal Status – STP: Region 4

52

Observation: Although STP status has decreased in Region 4, unlike the other regions, Region 4 has approximately the same number of STP status’s in FY2007 as they experienced in FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007)

Includes 159 Counties

53

Legal Status – STP: Region 5

Observation: As was the case with Regions 1 and 3, Region 5 experienced a decrease in STP Status between FY2004 and FY2006, with an increase in FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Includes 159 Counties.

54

Legal Status – STP: by Gender

54

Observation: While both genders demonstrated a decrease in STP Legal Status from FY2004 to FY2006,males increased in FY2007, while females decreased in FY2007, albeit at a lower rate that had been seen previously.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159Counties

55

Legal Status – STP: Black

Observation: Black STP status decreased from FY2004 to FY2006 and then remained flat in FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

56

Legal Status – STP: White

Observation: Similar to the trend exhibited by black juveniles, white juveniles experienced a decrease in the number of STPs from FY2004 to FY2006 and then remained flat in FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

57

Legal Status – STP: Hispanic

Observation: Similar to the trend exhibited by Black and White juveniles, Hispanic juveniles experienced a decrease in the number of STPs from FY2004 to FY2006. However, the increase from FY2006 to FY2007 was an increase of over 30% - albeit on a small base.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

5858

Legal Status – STP: Drug Sales (MSO1)

Observation: With the exception of FY2006, the number of Drug Sales MSO with an STP Legal Status has increased. The annualized average increase is 10%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

59

Legal Status – STP: Drug Use (MSO2)

Observation: With the exception of FY2004, the number of Drug Use MSOs with an STP Legal Status as decreased, with FY2007 remaining flat.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

60

Legal Status – STP: Property (MSO3)

Observation: After a slight increase in FY2004, the number of Property MSOs with an STP legal status decreased until FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

61

Legal Status – STP: Public Order (MSO4)

Observation: From FY2004 to FY2007, the number of Public Order MSOs with a STP Legal Status has decreased. The annualized decrease is 8.6%

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

62

Legal Status – STP: Non-Violent Sex (MSO5)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Non-Violent Sex MSO, receiving a legal status of STP is very low, and has decreased until FY2007, when there was a slight increase.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

63

Legal Status – STP: Status (MSO6)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Status MSO receiving a STP legal status increased until FY2005, and then decreased in FY2006 and FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

64

Legal Status – STP: Traffic (MSO7)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Traffic MSO receiving a STP legal status is very low. The numbers increased until FY2005, and then decreased in FY2006 and FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

65

Legal Status – STP: Violent (MSO8)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Violent MSO receiving a STP legal status, has decreased steadily since FY2004.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

66

Legal Status – STP: Violent Sex (MSO9)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Violent Sex MSO receiving a STP legal status is very low. The number decreased steadily from FY2004 to FY2006. There was a slight increase in FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

67

Legal Status – STP: Technical (MSO10)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Technical MSO receiving a STP legal status, decreased from FY2004 to FY2006. There was a slight increase in FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

68

Legal Status – STP: Weapons (MSO11)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Weapons MSO receiving a STP legal status, has decreased from FY2004 to FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

69

Legal Status - Commitments

Observation: The number of Commitments has remained fairly steady since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

70

Legal Status – Commitments: Region 1

Observation: The number of Commitments in Region 1has remained fairly steady since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

71

Legal Status – Commitments: Region 2

Observation: The number of Commitments in Region 2 has decreased fairly steady since FY2003, with the exception of FY2006. The annualized decrease was 8.5%

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

72

Legal Status – Commitments: Region 3

Observation: The number of Commitments in Region 3 has increased steadily since FY2005. The annualized increase from FY2005 to FY2007 was19% .

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

73

Legal Status – Commitments: Region 4

Observation: The number of Commitments in Region 4 has remained fairly steady since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

74

Legal Status – Commitments: Region 5

Observation: The number of Commitments in Region 5 has remained fairly steady, until FY2007, when it decreased by 28% from FY2006.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

75

Legal Status – Commitments: Gender

Observation: Male Commitments have fluctuated over time, while Female Commitments have remained steady, until FY2007, when both genders experienced a decrease.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159Counties

76

Legal Status – Commitments: Black

Observation: The number of Black juveniles with a Commitment Legal Status has fluctuated, with FY2007 decreasing from FY2006.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

77

Legal Status – Commitments: White

Observation: The number of White juveniles with a Commitment Legal Status has decreased steadily since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

78

Legal Status – Commitments: Hispanic

Observation: The number of Hispanic juveniles with a Commitment Legal Status has increased steadily since FY2003. The average annualized increase is 23.7% - albeit on a small base.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

79

Observation: The percentage of Commitments comprised of Black and Hispanic juveniles is increasing, while the percentage of Commitments comprised of White juveniles is decreasing.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties

Legal Status – Commitments: Ethnicity

80

Legal Status – Commitments: Drug Sales (MSO1)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Drug Sales MSO and a Committed legal status is very small. The number has increased steadily since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

81

Legal Status – Commitments: Drug Use (MSO2)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Drug Use MSO and a Committed legal status has fluctuated since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

82

Legal Status – Commitments: Property (MSO3)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Property MSO and a Committed legal status has fluctuated since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

83

Legal Status – Commitments: Public Order (MSO4)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Public Order MSO and a Committed legal status has seen a slow steady decline since FY2003, with the exception of FY2006.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

84

Legal Status – Commitments: Non-Violent Sex (MSO5)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Non-Violent Sex MSO and a Committed legal status is very small.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

85

Legal Status – Commitments: Status (MSO6)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Status MSO and a Committed legal status is very small and steadily decreasing.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

86

Legal Status – Commitments: Traffic (MSO7)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Traffic MSO and a Committed legal status is very small.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

87

Legal Status – Commitments: Violent (MSO8)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Violent MSO and a Committed legal status has been increasing fairly steadily since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

88

Legal Status – Commitments: Violent Sex (MSO9)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Violent Sex MSO and a Committed legal status decreased from FY2003 to FY2005, but increased from FY2005 to FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

89

Legal Status – Commitments: Technical (MSO10)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Technical MSO and a Committed legal status has experienced a general upward trend until FY2007, when there was a slight decrease.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

90

Legal Status – Commitments: Weapons (MSO11)

Observation: The number of juveniles with a Weapons MSO and a Committed legal status has fluctuated since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

91

Legal Status – Commitments: All Types

Observation: Of the three types of Commitments, the majority are “Regular”. The annualized change in Regular Commitments is a -2.4% decrease, while the annualized change in Designate Felons is a 9.3% increase.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

92

ALOS for MSO by Legal Status – FY2007

MSOType INTAKES ALOS PROBATION ALOS STP ALOS COMMITMENTS ALOS

1 (Drug Sales) 101 225 42 5372 (Drug Use) 84 242 40 5223 (Property) 76 229 39 630

4 (Public Order) 63 238 40 5885 (Non Violent Sex) 79 254 45 499

6 (Status) 57 253 37 5527 (Traffic) 54 208 36 7118 (Violent) 78 229 41 687

9 (Violent Sex) 148 335 37 76610 (Technical) 124 286 41 43111 (Weapons) 83 227 36 621

Each Cell indicates the Average Length of Stay for the MSO Type/Legal Status combination. For Example, the average length of stay for an intake with a Drug Selling Offense is 101 days.

The following set of slides reflect placements

93

Observation: The number of juveniles entering into an RYDC has grown steadily since FY2003. The annualized growth rate is 4.1%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

94

Placements (RYDC)

95

Observation: The number of RYDC Placements as a % of the At Risk Population has varied by region.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

95

RYDC as a % of At Risk Population: by Region

9696

Observation: While the number of RYDC Placements as a % of the At Risk Population has remained relatively stable for females, it has exhibited a slight increase for males.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

96

RYDC as a % of At Risk Population: by Gender

9797

Observation: While the % of White juveniles in RYDC Placement has decreased, the % of Black juveniles has increased. The % of Hispanic juveniles has remained relatively stable.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

97

RYDC as a % of At Risk Population: by Ethnicity

98

Placements – RYDC: Region 1

Observation: The number of juveniles entering into an RYDC in Region 1 has grown annually with the exception of FY2006. The annualized growth rate is 4.6%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

99

Placements – RYDC: Region 2

Observation: Until FY2007, the number of juveniles in an RYDC in Region 2 was increasing at an annualized rate of 5.1%. In FY2007, there was a -16.9% decrease from FY2006.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

100

Placements – RYDC: Region 3

Observation: Region 3 has experienced a fairly steady increase in the number of juveniles entering into an RYDC. The annualized average growth rate is 5.6%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

101

Placements – RYDC: Region 4

Observation: Region 4 has experienced a fairly steady increase in the number of juveniles entering into an RYDC. The annualized average growth rate is 7.0%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

102

Placements – RYDC: Region 5

Observation: Region 4 has experienced a slow steady increase in the number of juveniles entering into an RYDC. The annualized average growth rate is 2.3%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

103

Placements – RYDC: Gender

Observation: There is a difference in RYDC placement growth rates. The average annualized growth rate for males is 4.8%, while the average annualized growth rate for females is 2.0%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

104

Placements – RYDC: Black

Observation: The number of Black juveniles in RYDC placement has increased steadily since FY2003. The annualized average growth rate is 7.5%. The change from FY2006 to FY2007 was only 2.0%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

105

Placements – RYDC: White

Observation: After a slight increase from FY2003 to FY2004, the number of White juveniles entering into RYDC placement has decreased at an average annualized rate of -3.6%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

106

Placements – RYDC: Hispanic

Observation: Although the overall numbers are small, the rate of increase for Hispanic juveniles entering into RYDC placement is increasing at a rate of 15% per year.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

107

Placements – RYDC: Drug Sales (MSO1)

Observation: The number of RYDC placements for a Drug Selling offense has increased 32.5% per year since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

108

Placements – RYDC: Drug Use (MSO2)

Observation: The number of RYDC placements for a Drug Usage offense has remained fairly stable sinceFY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

109

Placements – RYDC: Property (MSO3)

Observation: After several years of decrease, the number of RYDC placements related to a Property offense has increased at an annualized average rate of 7.4% since FY2005.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

110

Placements – RYDC: Public Order (MSO4)

Observation: The number of juveniles entering RYDC for a Public Order offense has increased fairly steadily at an average annualized rate of 4.0%

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

111

Placements – RYDC: Non-Violent Sex (MSO5)

Observation: The number of juveniles entering an RYDC with a Non-Violent Sex offense is very small and has remained stable since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

112

Placements – RYDC: Status (MSO6)

Observation: The number of juveniles entering an RYDC with a Status offense has increased steadily until FY2006 – the average annualized rate from FY2003 to FY2006 was 12.4%. The number for FY2007 was a 1% decrease from FY2006.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

113

Placements – RYDC: Traffic (MSO7)

Observation: The number of juveniles entering an RYDC with a Traffic offense has increased from FY2003 to FY2005, and then decreased from FY2005 to FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

114

Placements – RYDC: Violent (MSO8)

Observation: The number of juveniles entering an RYDC with a Violent offense increased steadily since FY2003. The annualized average rate of increase is 7.1%. The change from FY2006 to FY2007 was about .9%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

115

Placements – RYDC: Violent Sex (MSO9)

Observation: The number of juveniles entering RYDC placement for a Violent Sex offense has gradually decreased since FY2003. the annualized average rate of decrease is -4.2%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

116

Placements – RYDC: Technical (MSO10)

Observation: The number of juveniles entering RYDC placement for a Technical offense increased from FY2003 to FY2005. After a decrease in FY2006, the number remained stable in FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

117

Placements – RYDC: Weapons (MSO11)

Observation: The number of juveniles entering RYDC placement for a Weapons offense has increased steadily since FY2003. The annualized average growth rate is 9.1%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

118

Placements – RYDC: ALOS by Region

Observation: The Average Length of Stay in an RYDC varies by Region.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

119

Placements – RYDC: ADP by Region

Observation: The Average Daily Population in an RYDC varies by Region. It should be noted that Region 3 experienced a 13.3% increase from FY2006 to FY2007, and Region 4 experienced a 16.6% increase over the same period.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

120

Placement - STP

Observation: Since the high number of STP placements in FY2004, the annualized average decrease to FY2007 has been 18.8%

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

121121

Observation: The number of STP Placements as a % of the At Risk Population has exhibited a sharp decline across all regions.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

121

STP as a % of At Risk Population: by Region

122122122

Observation: The number of STP Placements as a % of the At Risk Population has exhibited a sharp decline for both genders.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

122

STP as a % of At Risk Population: by Gender

123123123

Observation: The number of STP Placements as a % of the At Risk Population has exhibited a sharp decline across all Ethnicities.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

123

STP as a % of At Risk Population: by Ethnicity

124

Placements – STP: Region 1

Observation: Region 1 has exhibited a similar trend in STP placements. The overall annualized average decrease since FY2004 has been over 22%. However, the change from FY2006 to FY2007 was only -4.8%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

125

Placements – STP: Region 2

Observation: Region 2 has exhibited a similar trend in STP placements. The overall annualized average decrease since FY2004 has been over 17%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

126

Placements – STP: Region 3

Observation: Region 3 has exhibited a similar trend in STP placements – until FY2007. The overall annualized average decrease since FY2004 has been over 15%. However, from FY2006 to FY2007, STP placements increased 2.7%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

127

Placements – STP: Region 4

Observation: Region 4 has exhibited a slightly different trend in STP placements. The number of STP placements peaked in FY2005. The region has exhibited an annualized average decrease of 9% since the FY2005 peak.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

128

Placements – STP: Region 5

Observation: Region 5 has exhibited a trend in STP placements similar to that of most of the other regions. The overall annualized average decrease since FY2004 has been 12.9%. However, the decrease from FY2006 to FY2007 was only 5.7%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

129

Placements – STP: Gender

Observation: The number of STP placements has exhibited approximately the same trend for each gender.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

130

Placements – STP: Black

Observation: The number of Black juveniles entering STP placement has decreased at an annualized average rate of 11.9%, since FY2004.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

131

Placements – STP: White

Observation: The number of White juveniles entering STP placement has decreased at an annualized average rate of 17.2% since FY2004.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

132

Placements – STP: Hispanic

Observation: The number of Hispanic juveniles in STP placement exhibited a similar trend to juveniles of other races, until FY2007. The increase from FY2006 to FY2007 was 13.5%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

133

Placements – STP: Drug Selling (MSO1)

Observation: The number of juveniles with an STP placement for a drug selling offense has varied. The change from FY2006 to FY2007 was a 27.4% increase – albeit on a small base.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

134

Placements – STP: Drug Use (MSO2)

Observation: The number of juveniles with an STP placement for a drug usage offense has exhibited the same basic trend as STP placement overall – a steady decline since FY2004. The annualized average decrease has been 16.5%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

135

Placements – STP: Property (MSO3)

Observation: The number of juveniles with an STP placement for a property offense has exhibited the same basic trend as STP placement overall – a fairly steady decline since FY2004. The annualized average decrease has been 10.9%. Although the decrease from FY2006 to FY2007 slowed to 4.9%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

136

Placements – STP: Public Order (MSO4)

Observation: The number of juveniles with an STP placement for a Public Order offense has exhibited the same basic trend as STP placement overall – a fairly steady decline since FY2004. The annualized average decrease has been 14.5%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

137

Placements – STP: Non-Violent Sex (MSO5)

Observation: The number of juveniles with an STP placement for a Non-Violent Sex offense is very small and has decreased since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

138

Placements – STP: Status (MSO6)

Observation: The number of juveniles with an STP placement for a Status offense peaked in FY2005 and decreased at an annualized average rate of 18%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

139

Placements – STP: Traffic (MSO7)

Observation: The number of juveniles with an STP placement for a Traffic offense are small. They peaked in FY2004 and then decreased.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

140

Placements – STP: Violent (MSO8)

Observation: The number of juveniles with an STP placement for a Violent offense peaked in FY2004, and then decreased at an annualized average rate of 12.8%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

141

Placements – STP: Violent Sex (MSO9)

Observation: The number of juveniles with an STP placement for a Violent Sex offense peaked in FY2004, and then decreased at an annualized average rate of 12.1%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

142

Placements – STP: Technical (MSO10)

Observation: The number of juveniles with an STP placement for a Technical offense peaked in FY2004, and then decreased at an annualized average rate of 16.2%. The decrease from FY2006 to FY2007 was only 5.1%

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

143

Placements – STP: Weapons (MSO11)

Observation: The number of juveniles with an STP placement for a Weapons offense peaked in FY2004, and then decreased at an annualized average rate of 11.8%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

144

Placements – STP: ALOS by Region

Observation: The five regions have demonstrated the same general decreasing trend in the Average Length of Stay in a STP Placement since FY2003, with the exception of FY2006, when Regions 1 and 2 increased – and then fell back down in FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

145

Placements – STP: ADP by Region

Observation: The five regions have demonstrated the same general decreasing trend in the Average Daily Population in a STP Placement since FY2003. It should be noted that Region 1, which had the highest ADP in FY2003, had the lowest ADP in FY2007, while Region 4 had the lowest ADP in FY2003, had the highest ADP in FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

146

Placements – STP: All Types

Observation: Since FY2005, the mix of STP Placements has changed from predominantly RYDC to YDC (ST).

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

147

Placements – STP: RYDC

Observation: The number of juveniles in an STP:RYDC placement has decreased since FY2004. The annualized average decrease was 22.8%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

148

STP:RYDC as a % of At Risk Population: by Region

Observation: The number of STP:RYDC Placements as a % of the At Risk Population has exhibited a sharp decline across all regions.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

149149

STP:RYDC as a % of At Risk Population: by Gender

Observation: The number of STP:RYDC Placements as a % of the At Risk Population has exhibited a sharp decline across both Genders.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

150

Placements – STP: RYDC - ALOS

Observation: The Average Length of Stay in an STP:RYDC varies by Region.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

151

Placements – STP: RYDC - ADP

Observation: Although the Average Daily Population for STP:RYDC Placement varies by Region, all five regions demonstrate the same basic trend – a dramatic decrease in ADP from FY2005 to FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

152

Placements – STP: At Home

Observation: After an increase from FY2003 to FY2005, there has been a dramatic decrease in the number of juveniles placed in STP: At Home.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

153153

STP: At Home as a % of At Risk Population: by Region

Observation: With the exception of Region 3, all regions have exhibited an increase in the number of STP:At Home Placements as a % of the At Risk Population.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

154154154

STP: At Home as a % of At Risk Population: by Gender

Observation: The number of STP: At Home Placements as a % of the At Risk Population has exhibited an increase for Genders.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

155

Placements – STP: At Home - ALOS

Observation: The Average Length of Stay for STP: At Home placement varies by Region. It should be noted that from FY2006 to FY2007 both Region 5 and Region 3 have experienced a strong increase, while the other regions have either decreased or remained stable.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

156

Placements – STP: At Home - ADP

Observation: Across all regions, the Average Daily Population for STP: At Home placement has decreased dramatically since FY2005.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

157

Placements – STP: NSC/Residential

Observation: The number of STP: NSC placements has varied year over year since FY2003. However, the annualized trend has been downward – the average annualized decrease from FY2003 to FY2007 is -4.5%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

158158158

STP: NSC as a % of At Risk Population: by Region

Observation: The number of juveniles in an STP:NSC Placement as a% of the At Risk Population, has varied across all five regions. However, all regions have exhibited a sharp decline in the percentage of STP:NSC Placements since FY2005. Note that the percentages are very small.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

159159159159

STP: NSC as a % of At Risk Population: by Gender

Observation: The number of STP: NSC Placements as a % of the At Risk Population has exhibited a recent decrease for both Genders. Note that the percentages are very small.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

160

Placements – STP: NSC/Residential - ALOS

Observation: The Average Length of Stay for STP: NSC placement varies slightly by Region. With the exception of Region 3, all regions had an ALOS of between 160 and 180 days in FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

161

Placements – STP: NSC/Residential - ADP

Observation: The Average Daily Population of STP:NSC placements increased dramatically in Region 3 from FY2006 to FY2007 – 21% increase. The other regions have remained fairly constant. Region 4 experienced a slight increase from FY2006 to FY2007 – 14%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

162

Placements – STP: YDC (Short Term)

Observation: The number of STP: YDC had decreased steadily from FY2003 to FY2006, but increased from FY2006 to FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

163163163163

STP: YDC as a % of At Risk Population: by Region

Observation: The number of juveniles in an STP:YDC Placement as a% of the At Risk Population, has decreased across all five regions. Note that the percentages are very small.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

164164164164

STP: YDC as a % of At Risk Population: by Gender

Observation: The number of juveniles in an STP:YDC Placement as a % of the At Risk Population, has decreased across both Genders. Note that the percentages are very small.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

165

Placements – STP: YDC (Short Term) - ALOS

Observation: The Average Length of Stay for STP: YDC has decreased steadily and consistently across the five regions from FY2003 to FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

166

Placements – STP: YDC (Short Term) - ADP

Observation: The Average Daily Population of STP:YDC placements has decreased steadily and consistently across the five regions – until FY2006. From FY2006 to FY2007, Regions 1 experienced an increase, while Regions 3 and 4 were stable from FY2006 to FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

167

Placements – Commitment

Observation: The number of Commitments has varied over time.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

168168

Placements – Commitment

Observation: Note that this is the same slide with a different axis.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

169169169169169

Commitments as a % of At Risk Population: by Region

Observation: The number of juveniles in a Commitment Placement as a% of the At Risk Population, has varied across the five regions.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

170170170170170170

Commitments as a % of At Risk Population: by Gender

Observation: The number of juveniles in a Commitment Placement as a% of the At Risk Population, has remained relatively stable for both Genders.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

171171171171171171

Commitments as a % of At Risk Population: by Ethnicity

Observation: The number of juveniles in a Commitment Placement as a% of the At Risk Population, has varied by Ethnicity. After several years of stability, the % of Black juveniles increased in FY2006.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

172

Placements – Commitment: Region 1

Observation: Region 1 has exhibited a slight decline in Commitments since FY2004 – annualized average decrease of 3.1%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

173

Placements – Commitment: Region 2

Observation: Region 2 has exhibited a slight decline in Commitments since FY2004 – annualized average decrease of 4.2%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

174

Placements – Commitment: Region 3

Observation: Region 3 has exhibited a strong increase in Commitments since FY2005 – annualized average increase of 9.5%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

175

Placements – Commitment: Region 4

Observation: Region 4 has exhibited a slight increase in Commitments since FY2004 – annualized average increase of 3.7%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

176

Placements – Commitment: Region 5

Observation: Region 5 has exhibited variation in Commitments since FY2003 – but the annualized average change from FY2003 to FY2007 was a slight decrease of 1.3%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

177

Placements – Commitment: Gender

Observation: Although the number of Commitments has not varied dramatically for either gender, the change from FY2003 to FY2007 for males was slightly positive, while the change for females was slightly negative.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

178

Placements – Commitment: Black

Observation: The number of Black juveniles in Commitment has increased since FY2003. The annualized average increase has been 3.7%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

179

Placements – Commitment: White

Observation: The number of White juveniles in Commitment has decreased since FY2003. The annualized average decrease has been 6.9%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

180

Placements – Commitment: Hispanic

Observation: Although the base is small, the number of Hispanic juveniles in Commitment is increasing at an annualized average rate of 16%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

181181

Placements – Commitment: Hispanic

Observation: Same slide with a different axis

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

182

Placements – Commitment: Drug Selling (MSO1)

Observation: The number of Commitments for a Drug Selling offense has increased since FY2003. The annualized average increase from FY2003 to FY2007 is 28.8% - albeit from a small base.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

183

Placements – Commitment: Drug Usage (MSO2)

Observation: The number of Commitments for a Drug Usage offense has decreased since FY2004. The annualized average decrease from FY2003 to FY2007 is 3.7%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

184

Placements – Commitment: Property (MSO3)

Observation: The number of Commitments for a Property offense has varied since FY2004. The annualized average decrease from FY2003 to FY2007 is 1.2%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

185

Placements – Commitment: Public Order (MSO4)

Observation: The number of Commitments for a Property offense has varied since FY2004. The annualized average decrease from FY2003 to FY2007 is 1.1%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

186

Placements – Commitment: Non-Violent Sex (MSO5)

Observation: The number of Commitments for a Non-Violent Sex offense has varied since FY2003. Although the numbers are small, the increase from FY2006 to FY2007 was 34%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

187

Placements – Commitment: Status (MSO6)

Observation: Since FY2004, the number of Commitments with a Status offense has steadily decreased at an annualized average rate of 4.8%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

188

Placements – Commitment: Traffic (MSO7)

Observation: Since the peak number in FY2005, the number of Commitments with a Traffic offense has steadily decreased at an annualized average rate of 27% - albeit from a small base.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

189

Placements – Commitment: Violent (MSO8)

Observation: The number of Commitments with a Violent offense has increased steadily since FY2003 at an annualized average rate of 3.6%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

190

Placements – Commitment: Violent Sex (MSO9)

Observation: The number of Commitments with a Violent Sex offense had decreased steadily from FY2003 to FY2006, but then increased in FY2007 by 3.5%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

191

Placements – Commitment: Technical (MSO10)

Observation: The number of Commitments with a Technical offense had increased steadily from FY2003 to FY2006, but then decreased in FY2007. From FY2003 to FY2007, the annualized average increase was 9.1%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

192

Placements – Commitment: Weapons (MSO11)

Observation: The number of Commitments with a Weapons offense has varied since FY2003.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

193

Placements – Commitment: ALOS by Region

Observation: The five regions have demonstrated roughly the same trend for Average Length of Stay – a variable decrease from FY2003 to FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

194

Placements – Commitment: ADP by Region

Observation: Consistent with the ALOS tends, the Average Daily Population has decreased from FY2003 to FY2007 across all five regions. It is worth noting that Region 4 had the lowest ADP in FY2003 and the highest ADP in FY2007, while Region 1 had the highest ADP in FY2003 and the lowest ADP in FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

195

Placements – Commitment: RYDC

Observation: The number of juveniles in a Committed RYDC Placement has increased since FY2003. While there has been variation year over year, the annualized average increase is 2.3%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

196196196196196196

Commitments: RYDC as a % of At Risk Population: by Region

Observation: The number of juveniles in a Commitment:RYDC Placement as a % of the At Risk Population, has varied across the five regions. Note the percentages are very small.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

197197197197197197197

Commitments: RYDC as a % of At Risk Population: by Gender

Observation: The number of juveniles in a Commitment:RYDC Placement as a % of the At Risk Population, has remained fairly stable for both Genders. Note the percentages are very small.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

198

Placements – Commitment: RYDC - ALOS

Observation: With the exception of Region 1, all regions have followed the same basic ALOS trends, with all regions exhibiting an ALOS of approximately 42 days in FY2007. Region 1 is lower at 36 days.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

199

Placements – Commitment: RYDC - ADP

Observation: The Average Daily Population for Committed RYDC placements varies by Region. While the other four regions have experienced limited or negative growth between FY2003 and FY2007, Region 3 has experienced an annualized growth rate of 5.4% .

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

200

Placements – Commitment: At Home

Observation: The number of juveniles in a Committed At Home Placement has increased steadily from FY2003 to FY2007. The average annualized increase is 2.3%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

201201201201201201201

Commitments: At Home as a % of At Risk Population: by Region

Observation: The number of juveniles in a Commitment: At Home Placement as a % of the At Risk Population, has varied across the five regions. Note the percentages are very small.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

202202202202202202202202

Commitments: At Home as a % of At Risk Population: by Gender

Observation: The number of juveniles in a Commitment: At Home Placement as a % of the At Risk Population, has remained fairly stable for both Genders. Note the percentages are very small.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

203

Placements – Commitment: At Home - ALOS

Observation: The ALOS for Committed At Home Placements varies by region. It should be noted that Regions 2, 4 and 5 experienced a dramatic rise in ALOS from FY2006 to FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

204

Placements – Commitment: At Home - ADP

Observation: The ADP for Committed At Home placements varies by region. It should be noted that Region 3 exhibited an annualized average growth of 10.4% since FY2003 and Region 4 exhibited an annualized growth rate of 8.2%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

205

Placements – Commitment: NSC/Residential

Observation: The number of juveniles in a Committed NSC Placement has fluctuated between FY2003 and FY2007. However, the overall trend has been one of decrease. The average annualized decrease is 4.5%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

206206206206206206206206

Commitments: NSC as a % of At Risk Population: by Region

Observation: The number of juveniles in a Commitment: NSC Placement as a % of the At Risk Population, has varied across the five regions. Note the percentages are very small.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

207

Commitments: NSC as a % of At Risk Population: by Gender

Observation: The number of juveniles in a Commitment: NSC Placement as a % of the At Risk Population, has exhibited recent increases for both Genders. Note the percentages are very small.

Analysis:

Data Source: RYDC Placements come from DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) At Risk Population based on US Census Data.

Based on 159 Counties.

208

Placements – Commitment: NSC/Residential - ALOS

208

Observation: The ALOS for Committed NSC Placements varies by region. However, all five regions have exhibited a recent increase. Regions 1 and 3 have increased at an annualized average rate of over 75% since FY2005.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

209

Placements – Commitment: NSC/Residential - ADP

Observation: The ADP for Committed NSC Placements has decreased since FY2005 for all five regions.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

210

Placements – Commitment: YDC (Long Term)

Observation: After several years of increases, the number of Committed YDC Placements decreased in FY2007.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

211

Placements – Commitment: YDC (Long Term) - ALOS

Observation: The ALOS for Committed YDC Placement has varied across the regions. It is worth noting that Region 5 has exhibited a steady increase since FY2003 – an annualized average increase of 19.3%.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

212

Placements – Commitment: YDC (Long Term) - ADP

Observation: The ADP for Committed YDC Placement has varied across the regions. It is worth noting that Regions 3 and 4 have exhibited a steady increase since FY2004 – an annualized average increase of over 15% for both.

Analysis:

Data Source: DJJ Case Data (received December 13, 2007) Based on 159 Counties.

Still need numbers here.

213

214

ALOS for MSO by Placement- FY2007

MSOType RYDC STP:RYDC STP:At Home

STP:NSC

STP:YDC Commitment:RYDC

Commitment:YDC

Commitment:Home

Commitment:NSC

1 14 22 98 8 37 30 312 125 140

2 15 25 172 222 36 31 308 173 173

3 21 22 89 114 38 38 325 150 170

4 16 19 101 125 37 32 261 159 155

5 23 72 . 438 38 33 426 132 182

6 11 21 235 153 36 20 117 190 172

7 17 22 37 139 34 47 412 136 282

8 27 27 113 123 41 55 403 148 205

9 73 36 . 458 33 140 421 349 282

10 16 23 135 189 36 25 167 138 164

11 15 23 53 79 36 38 324 139 212