data science atl meetup - risk i/o security data science

What Your Security Data Isn’t

Telling You

@mroytman

Michael RoytmanData Scientist, Risk I/OM.S. Operations Research, Georgia Tech

PART 1: !

DATA SCI OPS: !

LESS IS MORE !

LESS TOOLS

LESS DATALESS MODEL COMPLEXITY

MORE IMPACT

LESS DATA SCIENTISTS

SAY “BIG DATA”

ONE MORE TIME

EVERYONE IS A DATA SCIENTIST

TAKE ONLY WHAT YOU NEED

PART 2: !

FIX WHAT MATTERS

Remove the Threat

RemediationAccept the Risk

Repair the Vulnerability

“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data.

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Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of

theories to suit facts.”

C(ommon) V(ulnerability) S(coring) S(ystem)

“CVSS is designed to rank information system vulnerabilities”

Exploitability/Temporal (Likelihood)

Impact/Environmental (Severity)

The Good: Open, Standardized Scores

FAIL 1: A Priori Modeling“Following up my previous email, I have tweaked my equation to try to achieve better separation between adjacent scores and to have CCC have a perfect (storm) 10 score...There is probably a way to optimize the problem numerically, but doing trial and error gives one plausible set of parameters...except that the scores of 9.21 and 9.54 are still too close together. I can adjust x.3 and x.7 to get a better separation . . .”

2: Data FundamentalismSince 2006 Vulnerabilities have declined by 26 percent.” http://csrc.nist.gov/groups/SNS/rbac/documents/vulnerability-trends10.pdf !

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The total number of vulnerabilities in 2013 is up 16 percent so far when compared to what we saw in the same time period in 2012. ” http://www.symantec.com/content/en/us/enterprise/other_resources/b-intelligence_report_06-2013.en-us.pdf

3: Attackers Change Tactics Daily

Repair the Vulnerability

I Love It When You Call Me Big Data50,000,000 Live Vulnerabilities

1,500,000 Assets

2,000 Organizations

I Love It When You Call Me Big Data

15,000,000 Breaches

Baseline AllthethingsProbability (You Will Be Breached On A Particular Open Vulnerability)?

=(Open Vulnerabilities | Breaches Occurred On Their CVE) /(Total Open Vulnerabilities)

2%

Probability A Vuln Having Property X Has Observed Breaches

RANDOM VULN

CVSS 10

CVSS 9

CVSS 8

CVSS 6

CVSS 7

CVSS 5

CVSS 4

Has Patch

0.000 0.010 0.020 0.030 0.040

Counterterrorism

Known Groups

Surveillance

Threat Intel, Analysts

Targets, Layouts

Past Incidents, Close Calls

Uh, Sports?

Opposing Teams, Specific Players

Gameplay

Scouting Reports, Gametape

Roster, Player Skills

Learning from Losing

Defend Like You’ve Done It Before

Groups, Motivations

Exploits

Vulnerability Definitions

Asset Topology, Actual Vulns on System

Learning from Breaches

Probability A Vuln Having Property X Has Observed Breaches

Random Vuln

CVSS 10

Exploit DB

Metasploit

MSP+EDB

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3

Data is Everything and Everything is DataSpray and Pray = 2%

CVSS 10 = 4%

Metasploit and Exploit DB = 30%

www.risk.io/jobs

@mroytman

THANKS!