defining a pro-business agenda: election 2012 what is a pro-business agenda? whats at stake? ...
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Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
What is a “Pro-Business” Agenda? What’s at Stake?
Congress: US House & US Senate The White House
What’s the Industry Impact & Involvement?
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
What is a “Pro-Business Agenda?” It’s one that…
– IS a reflection of core positions on issues of environmental, labor, postal and tax issues, but
– IS responsive to ever-changing political and economic dynamics– IS often collaborative, combining the best ideas regardless of
partisan ideology– IS dedicated to promoting the value of print and debunking
public relations myths about the industry Overall, it is one that supports growth & success in graphic
communications industry by advocating for legislation that both enhances and protects the business opportunities and climate for printers nationwide.
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
U.S. House of RepresentativesAll 435 seats up for reelection.Current make-up
R’s 242; D’s 193Dems need 25 seats to flip party control
TrendsRedistricting based on 2010 census – likely a “wash”Loss of moderates (especially Democrats)Expected “correction” of 10-12 seats from historic “wave” election of House GOP in 2010 (+80 seat pick up)
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
U.S. House of RepresentativesBattleground Districts
Approximately 25-50 “toss up” seats across country“Orphan seats” in IL, NY, CA biggest trouble spots for GOP
What to Watch – Generic Ballot Poll (2/14/11 – 6/4/2012)
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
U.S. House of RepresentativesGeneric Ballot Poll
Current: GOP 44.2% Dems 43% Pre-Election 2010 GOP 51%Dems 42%
Predictions…House stays in solid GOP control w/ expected loss <20GOP likely loses net 10-14 seatsSpeaker Boehner/Majority Leader Cantor stay in place
…and drive a Congressionally-focused legislative agenda in a Romney Administration
Dem Leader Pelosi stays in charge? Fate unclear.Could see a leadership shake-up in Dem Caucus
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
U.S. SenateOne third of Senate seats up for reelection.Current make-up
D’s 51 (+2 Independents Lieberman/Bernie Sanders) = 53; R’s 47
GOP need 4 seats OR 3 seats +White House (VP) to flip party control
Trends11 Senate retirements to date (6 D’s (+1 Ind); 5 R’s)Lieberman (CT), Ben Nelson (NE), Snowe (ME) retirements leave major void of centrist Senators
Anti-establishment voter behavior (a.k.a., The Palin Effect?)
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
Sarah as the Political Madonna (staying power)?
The skill of remaining relevant...? The art of personal
reinvention…? The ability to fill arenas and
stadiums…? The power of just one
blockbuster name…? The “material girl”…?
Hmmm…?
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
U.S. Senate Trends (continued)
SuperPACsAnd “pacts” against the SuperPACs (MA Senate race)
SuperPAC spending on TV ads in battleground presidential states impacts downballot Senate race
Top 10 Funniest SuperPAC Names
1. Talkin’ Smack PAC2. I Ride Inside – The Pets Against Romney Committee3. Cats for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow4. Buck Up to Beef Up America5. Just Drink the Koolaid6. Raptors for Jesus7. Same vs the Machine8. WOLF PAC(Winning Our Liberty and Future ) 9. Joe Six PAC10. Americans for More Rhombus
1. 4. Cats for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow2. 5. Science!3. 6. Buck Up to Beef Up America4. 7. DogPAC5. 8. Peeps PAC6. 9. Winning Our Liberty and Future (Wolf) PAC7. 10. I Ride Inside – The Pets Against Romney Committee8. 11. Same vs the Machine9. 12. Why Not ZoidPAC?10. 13. Just Drink the Koolaid11. 14. The Internet12. 15. A SuperPAC13. 16. Joe Six PAC14. 17. Americans for More Rhombus15.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76797.html#ixzz1wHilYmTO
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
U.S. Senate: Battleground States
GRAY=No RaceDARK BLUE= Safe DemLIGHT BLUE=Likely DemDARK RED=Safe GOPLIGHT RED=Likely GOPGREEN=Safe IndependentYELLOW=Toss Up SeatsARROWS=Likely Party Flip
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
US Senate: Battleground States Massachusetts
Sen. Scott Brown v. Elizabeth Warren (Harvard professor)
43.5% 42.8%
US Senate: Battleground States Virginia
Tim Kaine (Dem Nat’l Cmte Chair) v. George Allen (former Senator)
45% 45.2%
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
US Senate: Battleground States Wisconsin
Tommy Thompson (former Gov) v. Rep. Tammy Baldwin
48.3% 40.7%
US Senate: Battleground States Missouri
Claire McCaskill v. Steelman 46.5% 43% Brunner45.5% 44.5% Akin 46.5% 43.5%
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
US Senate: Battleground States New Mexico
Heather Wilson v. Heinrich 47% 42.5% Balderas 43% 43%
US Senate: Battleground States Montana
Sen. Jon Tester v. Rep. Denny Rehberg
48% 45.5%
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
US Senate: Battleground States Nevada
Sen. Dean Heller v. Rep. Shelley Berkley
46.7% 42.3%
US Senate: Battleground States Ohio
Sen. Sherrod Brown v. Josh Mandel (State Treasurer)
46.5% 38.8%
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
US SenateWhat to Watch
If you want to see the balance of power flip from Dems to GOP…
Predictions…True toss up! Split between majority will shrink to a razor thin margin – perhaps one or two seat majority by either party.
Loss of centrists plus tighter political party margins will make compromise – the hallmark of the Senate – less likely.
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
White HouseGAME ON!
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
Obama Head-to-Head 47.2% Favorable View 51.6% Unfavorable View 43.4% Battleground States
OH 47.2% FL 44.8% VA 47.2% NH 48.7% PA 48% NC 47.5%
Romney Head-to-Head 43.6% Favorable View 39.9% Unfavorable View 41.3% Battleground States
OH 42.3% FL 45.3% VA 44.7% NH 42.3% PA 40.7% NC 45%
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
The White HouseWhat to Watch…
The key three data points (at mid-summer 2012):1.Unemployment Rate
Anything above 8% is trouble for Obama. Current rate: 8.1% (April)
2.POTUS Approval/Disapproval RateAnything above 50% disapproval is trouble for Obama. Current rate is: Approve 48.4% Disapprove: 47.2%
3.Right Track/Wrong Track PollMood of the country correlates to “throw the bums out” voter
behavior. Asks voters if they think country is heading in right or wrong direction.
Current poll is: Right: 33.8% Wrong: 58.5%
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
The White HouseVeep-Stakes – Whose on the short list?*
1. Rob Portman – Senator from Ohio2. Bobby Jindal – Governor of Louisiana3. Marco Rubio – Senator from Florida4. Paul Ryan – Congressman from Wisconsin5. Mitch Daniels – Governor of Indiana6. Bob McDonnell – Governor of Virginia7. Chris Christie – Governor of New Jersey8. Kelly Ayotte – Senator from New Hampshire
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
The White HouseVeep-Stakes – The Dark Horse Choices…
Sen. Pat Toomey (PA) Sen. John Thune (SD)Gov. Susana Martinez (NM) Gov. Brian Sandoval (NV)
Former Gov. Mike HuckabeeRep. Luis Fortuño (Puerto Rico)
Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA)
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012 The White House
More to Watch…The “Bain” of Romney’s Existence?
Who wins the debate on defining the costs/benefits of “private equity” – and who will claim the mantle on capitalism?
The Solyndra Saga?Who wins the debate on whether job creation via private/public
investment is the right direction – or too risky?
Religion – A Non-Issue in 2012?A far-right SuperPAC floated Jeremiah Wright; it’s a lead balloon in
2012. The Mormon question? Unanswered, but waning.
As Goes Greece…and Spain…and France…Global economic policy is in the face of general voters like never
before – how badly will it scare them?
Big Labor voter motivation in Big States?Wisconsin’s long national nightmare of union referendums & politician
recalls may be moving to another big state – Michigan.
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
Industry Impact on Key IssuesPostal Policy
Obama: Neutral GOP: Neutral
Labor PolicyObama: ----- GOP: +++++
Tax PolicyObama: --- GOP: +++++
Health CareObama: ----- GOP: +++++
Environmental/Regulatory PolicyObama: ---- GOP: +++++
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
Industry InvolvementWhat can printers do to get involved in Election 2012?
Visit www.printersvote.org (launching Sept1st). Complete voter resource guide includes candidate profiles and voting records & tools like absentee ballot applications, polling location directory, and voter registration.
Contribute to PrintPAC. 100 percent of contributions go to electing pro-print, pro-business candidates for federal office.
Participate in “Put Ink on Paper – Printer’s Vote ‘12” non-partisan, civic responsibility program sponsored by PrintPAC. PrintPAC contributors receive posters, bumper stickers, and other collateral Get Out the Vote material to encourage voting among the industry.
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
Industry Involvement I want to invest in the industry’s future. How can I learn more
about PrintPAC?PrintPAC brochure (available here at Offset & Beyond)Online at www.printpaconline.org
How much do printers contribute?All help is appreciated, but the most effective contributions are about $40 per month. In other words, a lot less than an OHSA or EPA fine or a walloping postal rate increase.
I’m sold on the ROI of PrintPAC! What’s the first step to participate?
Fill out a “Prior Approval Form” to let us know you’re interested. We’ll email you w/ more info.
Defining a Pro-Business Agenda: Election 2012
For more information on the industry’s political & legislative advocacy, please contact:
Printing Industries of America601 13th Street, NW, Suite 350 South
Washington, DC 20005
PH: (202) 730-7970 FX: (202) 730-7981E-mail: govtaffairs@printing.org
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