density discussion of the pressures and impacts from high (and low) population densities impacts...

Density

• Discussion of the pressures and impacts from high (and low) population densities

• Impacts from the requirements generated by dense populations in small areas

– recreation tends to be under pressure and therefore different responses evolve

Population Density and Golf(98)

• Canada - density about 5 per km2

• USA - density about 24 per km2

• Japan - density about 292 per km2

• 1,800 golf courses ..

• 14,400 golf courses .

• 1,850 golf courses

Golf in Japan

• In 1957 Japanese golfers won the world cup - the popularity of the sport exploded

• In 1998 Japan was the second largest market in the world for golf equipment

• In a population of 120 million only 2% can play with any regularity

Pressure

• Public greens fees start at $250 (US)– golfers can purchase rain insurance

• Private clubs start an initiation fee at $200,000

• Tokyo’s Koganei Club has an initiation fee of $2.5 million (US)

Response

• Multi-storied driving ranges and driving ranges on the roofs of high rise office towers

• Computerized indoor golf courses

• Travel - to the USA (esp. Hawaii) and BC

• Buy courses

• From 1994 to 1997 Japanese companies spent over $2 Billion (US) acquiring US golf courses

• Japanese firms control all of Hawaii’s golf courses

• Japanese money is a key player in the PGA, LPGA, and USPGA tours

Vital Rates

• Birth and Death rates in a society– rates at which people are added (through natality)

or subtracted (through mortality)– usually expressed per 1,000 pop.

• No accounting of age or sex– important - link with pressure on facility

development within and outside recreation

Sex Ratios

• Number of males to 100 females in a society

– expectation of balance

• imbalance - more males in earlier years, leveling out in the 40’s and female dominance after

– link to higher death rates for males and link to activity choice and expectations

Age Splits

• Distribution amongst age groups

• Expectation of variance

• Link - age to patterns and characteristics (of recreational choices and participation)

Dependency Ratios• Two major ratios are OADR (old age dependency

ratio) and YDR (youth dependency ratio)– Comparison to the ‘working population’ aged

15 - 64

• Combination in the TDR (total dependency ratio

• All have links to facility development

Population Pyramids

• Double bar graph that looks at age and sex

– advantage in simplicity

• graph split into a left half (males) and a right half (females)

• the vertical axis represents age groupings (link to census)

• the horizontal axis deals with population numbers or % of population

Example Pyramids

Advantages

1 Easy to read

2 Quick impressions

3 Large ‘scars’ or differences show up well

4 Has ‘sense’ of prediction built in

Disadvantages

1 Small differences do not ‘jump out’

2 Utility declines for small, volatile (migration) areas

Understanding of specific groups of populations

Small area populationsCounty (pop. 1,670) - Florida

Predictive QualitiesCanada - 2038

Canadian Populationto the 90’s

• The history of population growth in Canada has been one of ebbs and flows

– migrants enter in waves through ‘attractive’ times

– migrants dribble away in less ‘attractive’ times

• 1851 - 1951 7.1 million immigrants 7.1 million immigrants but 6.6 million emigrants6.6 million emigrants

Traditional Comprehension

• The Vital Rates are key to understanding the system

– major factor is the CBR

– migration has impact but is more an influence on CBR, sex ratios, and age structure

Implications for Recreation

• Massive changes in recreational patterns (participation and selection of activities

– impact on the construction of facilities