designing algorithms for industrial iot analytics
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Srikanth Muralidhara, Flutura Decision Sciences and Analytics
October 2015
Algorithms &
Industrial IOT
Forces at Play - The New World Order
• Increased focus on Super Optimization and Automation in mature markets
• Innovation will be led from emerging markets and then brought to mature markets
Source : Oxford Economics
2021 G8
Compounded by Scale of Inefficiencies
Electric power transmission and distribution losses (% of output) in India was 27%
Global retail industry inventory preventable loss at $300 billion
And many more…..
Wide range of unsolved problems – Need for Innovative SolutionsA core part of the solution would be Scalable Algorithms
Industrial IOT Areas and Applicability of Algorithms
4Source : Industrial Internet Consortium
Think “Narrow + Deep”
5Formulate Problems - Narrow and Deep
What should be the tilt in the runner to
maximize RPM?
When can the first service be deferred for a
given seismic region ?
How soon would the pump be affected due to
cavitation?
Think “Subsytems”
6Define Sub System Boundaries and Interaction Points Clearly
Think “Breadth+ Depth”
7Richness in the breadth and optimal depth in data. This is where it all starts !
8
Grey-Box Model
Gracefully marry mechanistic and statistical models
𝑃 = 𝑃𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟𝜂 = 𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦𝜌 = 𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟
𝑔 = 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡ℎ = ℎ𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑞 = 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒
Think “Greybox”
Think “Edge + Central ”
9
Location of the algorithm - Edge versus Centrally Controlled Intelligence
Think “Autonomous”
10Extent of Automation and Control
Unmanned systemsRemotely Assisted Remotely Controlled
Tying it all together – Predicting Turbine Failure
Data Preprocessing
•Mahalonobis Outlier Detection
•Pearson Correlation
•Missing Value Imputation
Feature Engineering
•Dominant Frequency Analysis
•Principal Component Analysis/Factor Analysis
•Mean Time Between Failure
Model Development
• Survival Analysis
• Logistic Regression
•Boosted Trees
•Random Forest
• What is the probability the coupler will survive for the next 6 months ?
• Which components are in the last stage of degradation ?
• Is the turbine X axis vibration in the normal operating range?
• Which are the main lead indicators affecting the plant load factor?
• What is the operating range of turbine X axis vibration?
• How does the lubricant oil temperature affect the bearing temperature?
Closing thoughts – 3 core points
• Age of Super Automation taking shape• Intersect of IOT + Analytics can pave the way for responding to this market condition
• Algorithms for unsolved problems
• Grey Box algorithms for better outcomes• Mechanistic + Statistical Models
• Breadth of data key to realizing successful outcomes• Uncovering and fixing data blind spots
13
“The price of light is less than the cost of darkness”Arthur C. Nielsen
IOT
Analytics
srikanth@flutura.com
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