designing futures to flourish: isss 2015 keynote

Designing a Futuresfor Flourishing

Peter Jones, PhD

OCAD University, TorontoDialogic Design International

2015 International Society for the Systems Sciences, Berlin

Reframing thelong crisisof theAnthropocene

Pope Francis, June 17, 2015

INTEGRAL ECOLOGY

“Since everything is closely interrelated, and today’s problems call for a visioncapable of taking into account every aspect of the global crisis, I suggest that wenow consider some elements of an integral ecology, one which clearly respects itshuman and social dimensions.”

“We urgently need a humanism capable of bringing together the different fields ofknowledge, including economics, in the service of a more integral and integratingvision. Today, the analysis of environmental problems cannot be separated fromthe analysis of human, family, work related and urban contexts, nor from howindividuals relate to themselves, which leads in turn to how they relate to othersand to the environment”

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Training new Systems Thinkers & Designers.

MDes STRATEGIC FORESIGHT & INNOVATION• Business & Design Thinking• Human Factors• Systemic Design / Systems Thinking• Innovation Research Methods• Strategic Foresight• Innovation Strategy• Business Model Innovation• Strategic research with faculty & students

Kelly Kornet (2015) Causing an Effect. Major Research Project, OCAD University.

William Georg (2015) From the Bottom of the Pyramid to the Bottom Line. Major Research Project, OCAD University.

If we are all entailed within a long crisis(or “emergency”)

Then, the creation of hope …

(as Andy Stirling said) becomes critical.

Harness fearlessness & novel experience ofstudents & new stakeholders.

Hasan Ozbekhan, Toward a General Theory of Planning, 1967

“Matters of Concern”Modes of ExistenceThe Bad Anthropocene

Kelly Kornet (2015) Causing an Effect. Major Research Project, OCAD University.

Shearing layers

Multiple sources: Stewart Brand (1994),

All connected – But different timescales

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Communications & Coordination

Community Projects & Arts

Policy & Social Services

Ecological StewardshipCommunity Stewardship

Resources StewardshipSocio-ecological Stewardship

Rich Picture Modeling

CHANGE

PREDICTION &FORESIGHT

UNDERSTANDING

DESIGN

TeamSyntegration

SimulationSystemigrams

BoundaryCritique / CSH

GIGAmap

Scenarioplanning

Soft SystemsMethodology

Dialogic Design

AppreciativeInquiry

SYSTEMS THINKING METHODS BY DESIGN INTENT

Novel – Future or unknown

Reform of the known system

SystemDynamics

DevelopmentalEvaluation

Design or VisualCyberneticEvaluativeSocial, Participatory

Systemic Design adapts methods to problem

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Strongly Sustainable BusinessModel adapted to future designof “Flourishing Cities”

5-10 year foresight (2nd Horizon)

Canvas + Generative workshop

- Ontological Design- Convergent & redirective- Foresight (Anticipatory)- Boundary Critique- Rich Picture Models

Tetrad (foresight) method to (futures) problem

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Tetrad cycle adapted to civicengagement for “transition toresilience”

5-10 year foresight (2nd Horizon)

Tetrad + Panel + dialogic workshop

- Stakeholder discovery- Redirective practice- Foresight (Anticipatory)- Boundary Critique- Transition design models

Collaborative foresight method adapted tostrategic policy

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Dialogic Design adapted forstakeholder inquiry for SSHRCImagining Canada’s Future

20 year foresight (3rd Horizon)

SDD (Dialogic workshop +Influence map + strategic research)

- Structured Dialogic Design- Stakeholder discovery- Collaborative Foresight- Boundary critique- Strategic advisory

OCAD UniversityUniversity of WindsorYork UniversityRyerson UniversityUOIT

"In the face of intensified urbanization worldwide, what arethe highest impact social & human challenges for SouthernOntario, now through 2030?”

13 Challenges by Leverage + Vote

Top Ten social challenges for social sciences policy funding(what SSHRC wanted) represented from influence map:

1. Advancing a diverse and inclusive society2. Enabling equitable access to ICT3. Governing ourselves responsively4. Designing sustainable cities5. Overcoming fear of change6. Including indigenous rights in planning7. Transitioning to a digital economy8. Upgrading transportation systems9. Stewarding regional ecosystems10. Supporting our aging population

Systemic design methods for strategic policy

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Stakeholder workshop series for SSHRC3rd Horizon policy finding:Canadian Governance in the Digital Era

Stakeholder workshops + Gigamapping

- Foresight (3 Horizons)- GIGAmap visual model design- Open Space + Small group work- Transition design- Strategic advisory

Governance in the Digital Era

Reinventing Democracy in the Digital Era

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reinventdemocracy.info

• Future Worlds Center (Yiannis Laouris) and UNDEF• SDD workshops held in 5 different cities across 4

continents• 1000 young people design action plans and lay the

foundations for coordinated actions• Plans & media co-production• 5 awards will be offered for participating groups

Bears striking consonance with SSHRC interests inmobilization and partnership

Stakeholder coalition formationStakeholder discoveryHarnessing commitment & continuity across events

Plenty of Questions for the Early Anthropocene

• If scientific institutions are at risk of the political sphere, howmight we best apply knowledge to action?

• Can an Action Design pedagogy & program result in betterpolicy & governance?

• Given the trends, how might we …- Better enact long-horizon actions from creative planning?- Envision & enact approaches to coalition formation?- Engage systemic methods across differing cultures & “Modesof Existence”?

• The “cathedral” layers of ecodemocracy are pure feedforward.How will we track, guide, & facilitate bioregion design plans?