deutscher wetterdienst fuzzy and standard verification for cosmo-eu and cosmo-de ulrich damrath...

Deutscher Wetterdienst

Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE

Ulrich Damrath (with contributions by Ulrich Pflüger)

COSMO GM Rome 2011

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

General outlook

Upper air verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE

Fuzzy verification

COSI @ DWD

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

error structure in upper tropo-sphere and above smoother, reduced error amplitude

C-EU verification against radiosondes

since July 2010: analysis in lower troposphere warmer

Temperature BIAS, 00 UTC RK, new vertical coord., new reference atm.

V=48

V=24

V=00

summer:troposphere always too warm

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

since July 2010: reduced bias at height of tropopause and above

V=00

V=48

V=24

C-EU verification against radiosondes Geopotential BIAS, 00 UTC (and 12 UTC)

RK, new vertical coord., ,new reference atm.

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

since July 2010: reduced rmse at height of tropopause and above

V=00

V=48

V=24

C-EU verification against radiosondes Geopotential RMSE, 00 UTC (and 12 UTC)

RK, new vertical coord., ,new reference atm.

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

C-EU verification against radiosondes Wind speed, RMSE 00 UTC

V=48

Since July 2010: reduced RMSE of wind speed in upper troposhere

RK, new vertical coord., new reference atm.

wind speed, RMSE Dec 2010/2009

solid: 2010

dashed: 2009

48 h24 h00 h

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

C-DE verification against radiosondes

lower troposphere in summer clearly too warm

Temperature BIAS 00 UTC modifications to mixing length and subgrid scale cloud scheme

V=00

V=18

no change compared to years before

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

V=00

V=12

C-DE verification against radiosondes Temperature BIAS 12 UTC modifications to mixing length

and subgrid scale cloud scheme

boandary layer and lower troposphere too warm especially in summer

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

V=12

V=12

boandary layer and lower troposhere too dry, above too wet

00 UTC

12 UTC pos. bias in rel. humidity decreases in 2011

C-DE verification against radiosondes Rel. humidity BIAS modifications to mixing length

and subgrid scale cloud scheme

pos. bias in rel. humidity slight increase in spr/sum 2011

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Results of verification against radiosondes 2010/2011

COSMO-EU: amplitude of temperature bias between troposphere and above has been

reduced

reduced bias and rmse of gepotential at tropopause and above

slightly reduced error in wind speed at upper troposphere

COSMO-DE: already since 2009 boundary layer too warm (except analysis 00 UTC)

slighty increased humidity bias at 00 UTC but reduced bias at 12 UTC

Modification of radiosonde measurements lead also to the change of RH bias (better results for noon, worse for midnight)

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Outlook for fuzzy verification

Motivation for fuzzy verification State at DWD (until May 2011)

Are the properties of COSMO 2 compared to COSMO 7 other than the properties of CDE compared to CEU?

Quality of CEU- and CDE-forecasts for different regions

Current application of Fuzzy-methods

Operational implementiation

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Traditional point-to-point verification for CEU and CDE

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Fuzzy-Verification in DWD till May 2011

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

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Weusthoff, Tanja, Felix Ament, Marco Arpagaus, Mathias W. Rotach, 2010: Assessing the Benefits of Convection-Permitting Models by Neighborhood Verification: Examples from MAP D-PHASE. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3418–3433.

182.092.447.625.214.0

8.42.8

mm/12 h

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Configuration of precipitation verification with FUZZY-methods

Up to May 2011: Observation data: Radar data prepared by assimilation scheme

Model data: GME-, CEU- and CDE-GRIBS interpolated to CDE-grid (nearest gridpoint)

Run: 00 UTC

Forecast times: GME, CEU: 06-18, 06-30, CDE: 06-18 hours

Verification area: part of CDE that is covered by radar data

Since May 2011: Observation data as before, modell data: CEU- and CDE-GRIBS interpolated to CDE-grid

(nearest gridpoint)

Run: 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18, 21

Forecast times: 01-04, 03-06, 06-12, 12-15, 15-18, 18-21 hours

Verification aread : CDE, Northern part of Germany, Southern part of Germany, North-Western part of Germany, North-Eastern part of Germany , South-Western part of Germany, South-Eastern part of Germany

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Application of Fuzzy-methods

Calculation of all Fuzzy-scores with the IDL-Program by Beth Ebert.

Monthly evaluation of data for Fractions Skill Score and Upscaling ETS

Generation of results for 8 (forecast runs)

* 7 (forecast intervals)

* 3 (2 models and one difference)

* 7 (regions)

* 2 (scores)

---------------------------------------------2352 Plots per time interval

Necessity to have a fast access to the data

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some examples:ETS upscaling July 2011, Run: 00 UTC, forecast time 01-04 hours

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some examples :FSS July 2011, Run: 00 UTC, forecast time 01-04 hours

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some examples :ETS upscaling July 2011, Run: 00 UTC, forecast time 12-15 hours

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some examples :FSS July 2011, Run: 00 UTC, forecast time 12-15 hours

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some examples :ETS upscaling July 2011, Run: 00 UTC, forecast time 18-21 hours

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some examples :FSS July 2011, Run: 00 UTC, forecast time 18-21 hours

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some aggregated results:ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (Germany)

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some aggregated results:FSS July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (Germany)

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some aggregated results:ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (NW-Germany)

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some aggregated results:ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (NE-Germany)

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some aggregated results:ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (SW-Germany)

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some aggregated results:ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (SE-Germany)

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some aggregated results:ETS Upscaling May 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (Germany)

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some aggregated results:ETS Upscaling June 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (Germany)

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some aggregated results:ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (Germany)

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some aggregated results:ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (Germany)

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Principle of boundary conditions for COSMO-DEand latent heat nudging

LHN (RH=const)

U, V, T, p‘, QV, QC, QI, QR, QS, T_SNOW, W_SNOW

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Some aggregated results:ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (Germany)

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

Summary concerning Fuzzy-Verification

The application of Fuzzy-verification for 3h-intervals allows a more detailed insight on the differences between the quality of precipitation forecast of CDE and CEU.

The results got by MeteoSwiss could be reproduces at least in a qualitative way.

Fractions Skill Score and ETS upscaling give for special cases notable different results. But the aggregated results are relatively good correlated.

The effect of LHN is especially for the whole region of Germany and for runs between sun rise and sun set relatively clear pronounced.

Also for parts of Germany this can be stated – but not with the same degree as for the whole region.

For some forecast intervals the effect of threee hour old boundar values of the CEU can be seen.

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

COSI @ DWD

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

COSI @ DWD

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

COSI @ DWD

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

COSI @ DWD

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

COSI @ DWD

Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011

COSI @ DWD