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Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 1

Globalization Chances and Risks

Lecture by Dr. Christopher Stehr

polymundo - Consultancy for Globalization

Habilitation - Faculty of Mathematics and Economics University Ulm

Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 2

Content1. Globalization - What is that?2. Globalization - Who makes it?3. Globalization - Designable?!

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9. November 1989

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11. September 2001

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11. December 2001

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MIGRATION

MIGRATION

Worldwide Developments

(INNER-)CONFLICTS(INNER-)CONFLICTS

EnvironmentEnvironment

Global CitiesGlobal Cities

POPULATION

POPULATION

FUNDAMENTALISM

FUNDAMENTALISM

SS

TERRORISM

TERRORISM

NN

KLIMATEKLIMATE

WEATHERWEATHER

CAPITALCAPITAL

RESSOURCECONFLICTS

RESSOURCECONFLICTS

ABC-WeaponsABC-Weapons

Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 8

"Globalization is the continuous interlinking process of different worldwide happening occurrences in the fields of economy, technique, politics, culture and social aspects of nations with interlinked inter-dependenciesand consequences.“

Definition Globalization

Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 9

Not a “new” „Phenomena“No fixed steady State..But a continuous ProcessIncrease, Consolidation, Condensation of cross-frontier Activities Increase of transnational Players

What is Globalization?

Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 10

First of all economical „Phenomena“Worldwide Opening of Marketsfor Goods, Currency and Work ForceInterlocking and Dependencyof different MarketsInternational/Global (?)Value added Chain

Was ist Globalization?

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Forms of Globalization

World ProductionWorld TradeWorld Market

World Communication

EnvironmentEnvironmental Consciousness

World CulturWorld SocietyWorld Politics

Environmental Crisis

World InformationWorld Standards

Economy

Technique

Ecology

Politics

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SpeedInterlinkageChange of PowerPlaceless, TimelessChange of Hierarchy

InterdependencyTime

Space

The “new” Globalization

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Globalization Index

Konjunkturforschungsstelle ETH Zürichhttp://globalization.kof.ethz.ch

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What is measured?

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What is measured?

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Schwellenländer (BRICS)Multinationale UnternehmenSupranationale OrganisationenInternationale KMU und NGO´sKapitaleigentümer (>1Mrd. US$)

What is measured?

Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 17

Globalization Degree - World

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Globalization Degree - World

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Globalization - Top 15

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Globalization - Last 15

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Globalization Index total: Nr. 15Economical Globalization: Nr. 40Social Globalization: Nr. 16Political Globalization: Nr. 6

Globalization Degree - Germany

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Globalization Degree - Germany

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Globalization Degree - ComparisonUSA - Germany

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Globalization Degree - ComparisonJapan - Germany

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SummaryWhat is Globalization?Forms of GlobalizationGlobalization IndexWhat is measured?Globalization Degree WorldIndex: Top 15 - Last 15Globalization Degree Germany, USA, Japan

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Content1. Globalization - What is that? 2. Globalization - Who makes it?3. Globalization - Designable?!

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Economy

Technique

Ecology

Politics

Player of the Globalization

Enterprises

Nations

Individuals

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USAJapanG7, G8, G12Old vs. New EuropeUnited Nations (Council)

Old Player

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Emerging Countries (BRICS)Global Cities and RegionsMultinational Enterprises (MNE)Supranational OrganizationsInternational SME and NGO´sCapital Owner (>1Billion US$)

New Player

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BRICS - Status QuoBrazil:MaterialsResources

India:GenericProductsSoftware

Russia:Crude Oiland NaturalGasoline

China:FactoryWorkshopof the World

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ATTA

C

SM

ENGO´s

UNO

LA

ASEAN

Quantitative DimensionsEU

RUS

USA

IWF

MNE

JAPANCHINAWTO

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ATTA

C

SM

ENGO´s

UNO

LA

ASEAN

EURUS

USA

IWF

MNE

JAPANCHINAWTO

MIGRATION

MIGRATION

(INNER-)CONFLICTS(INNER-)CONFLICTS

EnvironmentEnvironment

Global CitiesGlobal Cities

POPULATION

POPULATION

FUNDAMENTALISM

FUNDAMENTALISM

SS

TERRORISM

TERRORISM

NN

KLIMATEKLIMATE

WEATHERWEATHER

CAPITALCAPITAL

RESSOURCECONFLICTS

RESSOURCECONFLICTS

ABC-WeaponsABC-Weapons

+ Qualitative Dimensions

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SummaryPlayer of the GlobalizationOld PlayerNew PlayerEmerging Countries (BRICS)Quantitative DimensionsQualitative Dimensions„Globalization Accelerators“

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Content1. Globalization - What is that? 2. Globalization - Who makes it?3. Globalization - Designable?!

Globalization University Ulm International Summerschool 10.07. 2007 Dr. Christopher Stehr 36

Solutions

1998 to 2007 Follow Up Conf.

1997 Kyoto – World Climate

1993 Wien – World Human Rights

1992 Rio – World Eco Conference

1994 Cairo – World Population

1995 Copenhagen – World Social

1995 Peking – World Women C.

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Global Player (Transnationality Index)

Small/Medium Enterprises (SME)

Hidden Champions International SME Grown Global SME„Born Globals“(Export orientated)

New Player - Enterprises

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Level of Needs Ressources

Possibility of Control

Low

HochLow

HighLeadership

Cooperation

Representation

Setting UpEnterprise

Merger & Acquisitions

Joint Venture

Franchising LicensingExport

Going Global - Strategies

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Going Global - Strategies

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Internationalization GlobalizationValue Added Chain and

(Sourcing, Production, Sales)other Areas of Operation (HR, F)

Glokalisierung (Adaptation/Innovation)

Global Concentration

Globalization Branch Luxury

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Challenges I

Organization Finance

Management Employee

Globalization

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Challenges II

Stability Innovation

Reform People

Globalization

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More Globalization Countries/PlayersDistribution/DeregulationGlobal Competition:Work, Ground, CapitalKnowledge and Innovation

Globalization - even more?!

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Globalization - even more?!

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„Achieving States“Goals:DevelopmentHuman ResourcesWelfare„Important Role/World“

The Asiatic Century ?!

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Chances in the Future?!

3.500 3.300 2.700 2.000

44.500

35.000

27.500

6.500 6.000 5.500

China

USA

Indien

Japa

nBras

ilien

Russla

nd UKDeu

tschla

ndFran

kreich

Italie

n

Quelle: Goldman Sachs, 2003

The Economies in 2050

GDP ( Basis 2003 in Billion US$)

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0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

BRICs

G6

Development GDP - BRICS

Quelle: Goldman Sachs, 2003

GDP (in Billion. US$)

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Super PowerUnilateralism Liberal EmpireEnemy ProjectionValues = SecurityMissionary TaskWorld built after US-Values

The American Dream

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Global Responsibility Civil SocietyPeace and FreedomSustainabilityHuman RightsWelfare State

The European Dream

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Glocalisation“Zweite Moderne”Instability/Conflicts Ecological QuestionsDemocracy/WelfareIncome Distribution

Chances and Risks

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Global SolutionsGoing Global Strategies (SME)Challenges I + IIThe Asiatic CenturyChances in the FutureThe American DreamThe European DreamChances and Risks

Summary

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Summary1. Globalization - What is that? 2. Globalization - Who makes it?3. Globalization - Designable!?

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Thank you very muchfor your attention

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Success -in your global future!