digital resistance in repressive regimes
Post on 04-Dec-2014
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Is Digital ResistanceReshaping the Public Sphere?
Patrick P. Meier
The Fletcher School at Tufts &Berkman Center, Harvard University
1. Examples…
DigiActive
Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text”
DigiActive
Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text”
Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS”
DigiActive
Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text”
Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests”
DigiActive
Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS”
Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text”
Tibet - “Media Blackout?”
Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS”
Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests”
Tibet - “Media Blackout?”
Morocco ‘08 - “Exposing Abuse”
Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS”
Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests”
Tibet - “Media Blackout?”
Morocco ‘08 - “Exposing Abuse”
Egypt - “Exposing Torture”
Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests”
Tibet - “Media Blackout?”
Morocco ‘08 - “Exposing Abuse”
China - “Live-Twittered Arrest”
Egypt - “Exposing Torture”
2. Question…
ICT a statistically significant predictor of protests events?
3. Previous studies…
Data-driven
Data-driven
Eyck 2001
Data-driven
Eyck 2001
Stodden and Meier
2008
Data-driven
Eyck 2001
Stodden and Meier
2008
4. Data…
Parameters
Parameters
Protests
ICTs
Controls
Parameters
Protests
ICTs
Controls
Time period
1990-2007
country-year
Parameters
Protests
ICTs
Controls
Time period
1990-2007
country-year
22 regimes
Graphs
Graphs
Protests
Graphs
Protests
Internet
Graphs
Protests
InternetMobiles
Summary Stats
N = 396
5. Methods…
Regressions
Regressions
yi,t = i + 1 Inti,t +2 Mobi,t + 3 Landi,t +4 Autoci,t + 5 Unempi,t +6 GDPi,t +i,t
Regressions
Observed vs Projected
Observed vs Projected
Fi = yobs,i - ymodel,i
6. Findings…
Results*
*preliminary, subject to change
Results*
Internet
-0.12 (0.03)
99% sig level
Results*
Internet
-0.12 (0.03)
99% sig level Mobiles
-0.06 (0.06)
not significant
Results*
Internet
-0.12 (0.03)
99% sig level Mobiles
-0.06 (0.06)
not significant
Other
variables
not significant
Results*
Rsq = 0.613Rsq = 0.155
6. Conclusion & Next
Thoughts Why?
Thoughts Why?
Other methods?
Thoughts Why?
Other methods?
Field research!
Thank You
patrick@DigiActive.org
www.iRevolution.wordpress.com <- blog
Twitter @patrickmeier
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