direct effects of climate change on plants in hungary eszter erdei, j. bobvos**, t. hardy*, e....

Direct effects of climate change on plants in Hungary

Eszter Erdei, J. Bobvos**, T. Hardy*, E. Jozsa*, A. Paldy*

* Natl. Institute of Environmental Health, Natl. Centre for Public Health, Budapest, Hungary

**Metropolitan Institute of State Public Health Service, Budapest

Aim of the studyTo assess the impact of climate variability

on the production of pollen grains and

mould spores in Budapest, Hungary

• To examine changes in aeroallergen

abundance related to climatic conditions

• To give descriptions of the characteristics

of pollen and spore seasons during

longer time period

The yearly Taverage in the last 100 years of Hungary (°C)

Methods• Pollen and spore database: 32 different

allergenic pollen grains and 2 mould spores and other spores are recorded continuously with standardized method (Burkard 7-day volumetric trap) on daily basis by Hungarian Aerobiological Network

2 traps in Budapest (average pg/m3 was used), N=4018 observations!

• Weather database: collected by online air pollution monitoring stations of the Metropolitan Institute of State Public Health Service, Budapest

Consolidated daily aeroallergen countsaeroallergen counts into 3 groups:•spring trees (Alnus, Corylus, Betula, Fraxinus, Populus, Carpinus etc.)•grasses and summer-autumn weeds (Poaceae, Ambrosia, Artemisia, Chenopodiacea, ect.)•mold spores (Alternaria, Cladosporium, other spores, sum)

Meteorological factorsMeteorological factors:

•temperature (daily min, max, range, 24-hour average)•humidity (RH %)•sunshine intensity (kW/hour)•barometric pressure (hPa)•windspeed (km/hour)

• Agrometeorological parameter: total heatsums („growing degree days”) were used including negative T values calculated from 1st January of every study year till the date of the 1% of the total yearly catch of the certain allergen species;-relative percentages of the yearly sums (separately for the studied years) were compared to the starting dates of the pollen seasons (retrospective method, 1% of the total yearly catch) for 8 allergenic pollen produced plant species and the total mould spores

Variations of aeroallergen concentrations in Budapest

1992-2002

YY

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

Mea

n

300

200

100

0

PTREE

PGRASS

ALT

YY

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

Mea

n

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

CLA

EGY

Linear trends of aeroallergen concentrations during

the 11-years-long study periodß CI min CI max

PTREE** 13,84 11,86 15,82

PGRASS** 11,28 9,81 12,75

ALT -1,24 -2,13 -0,346

CLADO 12,30 -1,95 26,55

OS** 257,44 212,94 301,94

Average pollen concentrations by years and trends in

BudapestSpring blooming trees

(birch, ash)Grasses and ragweed

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002

birch

ash

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002

ragweed

grasses

Variability of T24 and starting dates of birch pollen seasons

0

1

2

3

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

20

21358365366365366364366365365365366N =

YY

20022001200019991998199719961995199419931992

95%

CI T

EMPM

AX

22

20

18

16

14

12

Variability of Tmin and starting dates of ragweed pollen

seasons

0

1

2

3

7.18

7.20

7.22

7.24

7.26

7.28

7.30 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 8.11

8.13

8.15

8.17

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

20

21358365366365366364366365365365366N =

YY

20022001200019991998199719961995199419931992

95%

CI T

EMPM

IN

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

Percentages of total heatsum values (±SD) at the starting dates of

pollination seasons of 8 allergenic plant species and mould

101010101010101010N =

FUNGAMBPOAQUERPLATBETCARPFRAXPOP

80

60

40

20

0

-20

20,00

Variabilities of heatsum values related to birch pollination period’s starting

dates in Budapest

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

.02.

26

.03.

01

.03.

05

.03.

09

.03.

13

.03.

17

.03.

21

.03.

25

.03.

29

.04.

02

.04.

06

.04.

10

.04.

14

.04.

18

.04.

22

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

20

21

Variabilities of heatsum values related to ragweed pollination period’s

starting dates

56,00

61,00

66,00

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

20

21

Morbidity data of rhinitis allergica patients in Hungary

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000

1990 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Num

ber o

f patie

nts

Forrás: Országos Korányi TBC és Pulmonológiai Intézet

Number of hospitalized asthmatic patients in Hungary

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000

Num

ber o

f patie

nts

Forrás: Országos Korányi TBC és Pulmonológiai Intézet

Conclusions• Increased production of aeroallergens

during study period in Budapest - direct health impact of climate variability.

• Starts of pollen seasons varied remarkably; associations with T24 and Tmin.

• The abundance of the most allergenic pollen types is enhanced moderately during the study period.

• Prediction can be made using relative heatsum values for starting dates of pollen seasons and fungi spore production.

Acknowledgement

Special thank goes to:• Tamás Bodorics for agrometeorological

advices

• This work was supported by the Hungarian National Environmental Health Action Programme (NEHAP)