disaster risk reduction as a pillar of a national adaptation strategy: experience of project noah,...

Disaster risk reduction as a pillar of a national adaptation strategy: experience of Project NOAH, Philippines

Carlo Arcilla and Mahar Lagmay

National Institute of Geological Sciences

University of the Philippines

Civilizations exist,

with geologic consent.

(Will Durant)

Disasters in the Philippines – one of the most vulnerable worldwide• Typhoons

• Floods

• Storm Surges

• Landslides

• Earthquakes

• Tsunamis

• Volcanic eruptions

• Politicians

EQUATOR

TECTONIC AND GEOGRAPHIC SETTINGS OF THE PHILIPPINES

Most of the disasters that have caused most life loss in recent years were extreme-rainfall related

• Guinsaugon landslide Typhoon Pablo

• Typhoon Haiyan (storm surge)

• Typhoon Reming

• Typhoon Frank

• Typhoon Milenyo

• Typhoon Ondoy

• Typhoon Pepeng

• Habagat

Tropical Cyclones• 20 Typhoons enter

Philippines annually on average (most worldwide)• Metro Manila is actually

protected from TCs

• Sep, Oct riskiest months

• Fewer TCs in Nov and Dec but appear further south• More likely to hit land

110E 120E 130E 140E

5N

15N

25N

35N

0

1

2

3

4

Source: Dr. Eman Anglo

Last week: Typhoon Nepartak

Devastation of aquifers from super typhoon Haiyan’s storm surge

M. Bayani Cardenas, Philip C. Bennett, Peter B. Zamora, Kevin M. Befus(Matt Kaufman and Aaron Packman)

Dept. of Geological Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin

Raymond S. Rodolfo*, Hillel B. Cabria, and Mark R. LapusRidge to Reef Solutions, Inc., Philippines and *Ateneo de Manila Univ.

Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan)

Study Site

Simulation and animation courtesy of Maarten van Ormondt

San Antonio

Simulation and animation courtesy of Maarten van Ormondt

Nov. 1912 (4.6-9.1 m surge)

Oct. 1897 (0.4-7.3 m surge, 1,200-1,300 dead, churches destroyed)

Photo: Boston.com

TRMM, NASA

http://www.boston.com

http://www.boston.com

http://www.boston.com

http://www.boston.com

http://www.boston.com

Crowdsourcing before it was famous

Massive debris flows triggered by Typhoon Pablo

(Bopha) on December 4, 2012 in New Bataan,

Compostela ValleyAlfredo Mahar Francisco A. Lagmay1,2, Rodrigo Narod C.

Eco1,2, Jenalyn A. Alconis1, Mary Joy K. Gonzales1, Likha G. Minimo2, Tatum Miko L. Herrero2, Jerico E. Mendoza

1Eric C. Colmenares3, Ryanne Wayne H. Serrado2, Joy T. Santiago1, Kelvin S. Rodolfo4

(Mathias Jacob, 2005)

1.5 m

7.5-9 m

DOST Project NOAH

Project NOAH

• Nationwide Operational Assessmentof Hazards

• Latest government program to address the disaster problem in the Philippines

• Use of Science and cutting edge technology for furture resilience

• Turned 4 years old this month, saved THOUSANDS of lives already

DOST PROGRAMS UNDER THE NOAH PROGRAM

Project NOAH

DREAM-LIDAR FloodNETHydroMet Sensors

Development

Hazard InformationMedia

Doppler System Development

Storm SurgeLandslides and Geohazards

HydroMet SensorsDevelopmentDREAM-LIDARFloodNETHazard Information

MediaLandslides

and GeohazardsDoppler System

DevelopmentCoastal Erosion

and Storm Surge

DOST-Project NOAH launch6 July 2012

1500+

sensors

AWS

ARG

AWLS

1500+

sensors

AWS

ARG

AWLS

714 sensors

AWS

ARG

AWLS

Important: RAIN rate! (measured by Doppler radar and verified by on-land sensor)!

Tropical Storm Gorio

LIDAR• 300 km2 per day• 17 out of the 18

major riverbasins have Lidar mapped floodplains

(Image from USGS website)

LIDAR Unit

2m Resolution

LIDAR DSM

Geomatics Group, Environment Agency UK

1m Resolution

LIDAR DSM

Geomatics Group, Environment Agency UK

50cm Resolution

LIDAR DSM

Geomatics Group, Environment Agency UK

25cm Resolution

LIDAR DSM

Geomatics Group, Environment Agency UK

Compostela Municipality Town Proper

Compostela Municipality Town Proper

Community scale maps, development planning, emergency planning, identifying blocked access routes, evacuation routes, safe a

Safe relocation site

Safe relocation site

Safe relocation site

Safe relocation site

• Future flood hazard based on a 100 year rain return flood scenario is high

Safe relocation site

• Projected flood level: up to 3 meters from the bottom of the river and nearby areas up to 2.5 meters.

Safe relocation site

Success story

• Provided two warnings several hours in advance of incoming Habagatfloods

• 1007 mm of rain August 6-8, 2012

• Zero casualties in Marikina

Lagmay et al., 2013

TY Pablo

Real-time information

Department of Science and TechnologyNationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards

DOPPLER RADAR

Yolanda Doppler Radar image as it traverses the central Philippines region

High-resolution Hazard MapsFlood, Landslide and Storm Surge Hazard Maps simulated over Lidar and IfSAR topography

Lidar

Community scale maps, development planning, emergency planning, identifying blocked access routes, evacuation routes, safe a

Safe Areas: 36.87%

NOAH Landslide, Flood and Storm Surge Hazard MapOrmoc City, Leyte

From Landslide, Flood and Storm Surge hazards

Safe Areas: 41.04%

NOAH Landslide & Flood Hazard MapKananga, Leyte

From Landslide and Flood hazards

NOAH Landslide, Flood & Storm Surge Hazard MapTacloban, Leyte

Safe Areas: 26%

TACLOBAN AREA – 106 SQ KMLANDSLIDE AREA – 50.2 SQ KMFLOOD AREA – 23.4 SQ KMSTORM SURGE AREA – 10.8 SQ KMTOTAL HAZARD AREA – 78.4 SQ KM

From Landslide, Flood and Storm Surge hazards

Real time information and High-Resolution Hazard maps are used to save lives• Real-time information are used to provide hours in advance warning

• High Resolution maps are used to inform people where to safely go when there’s a warning

AVOIDING DISASTERS

NOAH success stories• Real-time information are used for warning hours in advance to complement

days in advance weather forecast models

• Hazard maps are used as reference to move to a “safe” place.

Latest averted disasters• Typhoon Lando (Koppu) and Nona (Melor) extreme flood events

• Debris flows in Nueva Ecija and massive floods in Central Luzon

Source: Interaksyon

Highly successful predictions = 0 deaths but no news!• Good news is rarely news

There are some natural disasters that one just steps aside and are avoided, which is part of adaptation!• E.g., how do you “adapt” to a debris flows?

NOAH Data could check corruption!

Source: DPWH report - Flood management master plan for Metro Manila

and surrounding areas

MORE ACCURATE DEPICTION OF FLOODS IN THE METROPOLIS TO REALLY KNOW THE PROBLEM

NOAH Partial list of awards

1. 2012 New Media digital heroes award2. 2012 Cyberpress best IT product of the year (NOAH app)3. 2013 Best Telecom Project in the recently 16th Telecom Asia Awards

(NOAH app)4. 2013 Future Gov Award (NOAH app)5. 2014 UN World Summit Award (WSA) for best mobile app for m-inclusion

and empowerment (ARKO app)6. 2015 International ICT award for Best Philippine Mobile App of the Year

(ARKO app)7. 2015 PCIEERD Outstanding Research and Development Award (ClimateX) 8. 2015 Manuel L. Quezon Gawad Parangal Award (Proj. NOAH)

Local and International News

Local and International News

Cost of Project NOAH USD$ 40 MILLION!

• Filipino scientists trained in best universities developed local technology and determined only what was needed to be imported

• Dr. Mahar Lagmay (PhD Cambridge) – won European Geosciences Union Plinius medal award for disaster research in 2015

• Dr. CP David (PhD Stanford) developed rain-related disaster research

• Dr. Eric Paringit led LIDAR data acquisition

• Dr. Dennis Villorente led Filipino scientists who developed sensors and all data streamed into the INTERNET.

• We were doing crowdsourcing before it was popular

• NOAH accessible by mobile phone, apps, internet and distributed to local government units

noah.dost.gov.ph

• Mobile app ARKO shows hazard maps (won international award)

Important to tailor-make disaster resilience programs to local geologic and meteorological conditions• Ask help from experts who have extensive local data and are NOT

selling any programs/tools – even in disasters, we need transparency and truth in advertising!

• Satellite-based systems are great, but on-land sensors, detailed topography for flood and landslide and flood modelling, etc. are needed

• Collaborate with TELCOS to have data streamed into INTERNET and focused into vulnerable areas

Take Home Points

• Importance of local, highly trained scientists who can direct and select technologies to employ re disaster reduction

• Packaged disaster programs may not work unless thoroughly informed by local realities

• Detailed topographical survey, (e.g., LIDAR) absolutely important• Satellite data very important, but not enough• Extreme rainfall is a killer due to landslides, floods, debris flows – Doppler

radar and interpretation important• On-land sensors, along with satellite, and Doppler streamed through NET,

to have ON-TIME WARNING SYSTEMS• Important of two-way information between LGU and warning agencies –

cooperation of TELCOS very important (information via cell tower network)

Thank you!We can share our experience – caloy.arcilla@gmail.com

Bonus: Disaster data Can be used for resilienceMainstreaming CCA-DRR in communities for future resilience

• Save lives

• Comprehensive development plans / land–use plans

• Food security

Not all ricefields get flooded

Risk is the combination of the probability of an event and its

negative consequences.

Risk = f (Hazard , Exposure , Vulnerability

Disaster Risk Assessment

, Capacity)

HAZARD DATA PREPARATION/CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION AND ANALYSIS

1. Preparation of High Resolution Imagery and setting-up of GIS tools.

2. Digitization of existing land use data.

3. Data validation.

EXPOSURE(Land Use)

DATAGATHERING

ANDPROCESSING

AERIAL IMAGE

DIGITIZATION OF LAND USE DATA

- ROAD

- COMMERCIAL

- RESIDENTIAL

- AGRICULTURE

- OPEN SPACE

- INSTITUTIONAL

- Etc.

ROAD

COMMERCIAL

RESIDENTIAL

AGRICULTURE

OPEN SPACE

INSTITUTIONAL

EXISTING LAND USE

FINAL OUTPUT

1. Urban Use

2. Natural Resource Production

3. Critical Point Facilities

4. Lifeline Utilities

5. Population

LAND USE EXPOSURE DATA PREPARATION

RISK ANALYSIS

Urban UseNatural Resource

Production Critical Point FacilitiesLifeline Utilities Population

Risk = severity of consequence x likelihood of occurrence