doomsday survival code export - ruoran's epi notes · •imagine you’re writing a story on a...

DOOMSDAY SURVIVAL CODE A B E G I N N E R ’ S G U I D E T O

O U T B R E A K I N V E S T I G A T I O NR U O R A N L I , F E B 1 7 , 2 0 1 9

P U B L I C H E A L T H S Y M P O S I U M F O R Y O U N G L E A D E R S I N C H I N A

SARS 2002-03

What is this mysterious illness?

Where does it come from?

How many ill? How many dead?

Am I in danger?

How can I stay safe?

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 22/17/19

ACUTE NEUROLOGICAL ENCEPHALOPATHY, INDIA, 1980S - 2017Is it really a new disease?Is it transmissible?Why are only some children sick?How can we stop the children from dying?How can we stop further disease?

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 32/17/19

WHAT IS A DISEASE OUTBREAK?• Exercise: talk to your neighbors, and come up with three

outbreaks in history (past or present)

• Pre-class:�������

• Summarize definition

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 42/17/19

WHY DO WE NEED TO INVESTIGATE DISEASE OUTBREAKS?• Studying a new phenomenon leads to new scientific

discoveries– knowledge and invention

• Control disease, reduce suffering– Medical and spiritual

– Reinstate societal functions: healthcare system, governance

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 52/17/19

WWI

Great depression

WWII

Broadcast ad ban 1971

First modern report linking smoking and lung cancer 1950

Federal cigarette tax doubles 1983

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 62/17/19

GENERAL PHASES OF AN OUTBREAK INVESTIGATION

Descriptive

ExplanatoryResponse

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 72/17/19

S T E P S I N O U T B R E A K I N V E S T I G AT I O NA B E G I N N E R ’ S G U I D E

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 82/17/19

OBJECTIVES OF A FIELD INVESTIGATION• Identify the:

– Disease-causing agent– Source, and/or– Mode of transmission

• Characterize the extent of the outbreak: who has been affected?• Identify exposures or risk factors

that increase risk of disease• Develop and implement control

and prevention measures

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 92/17/19

Cholera in London

THE BEGINNING

• Imagine you’re writing a story on a deadly doomsday outbreak – the virus that’s going to kill everyone; zombies… Answer the following questions:

– Who is the hero of your story? How does he discover the outbreak? What does he do?

• Now think about what happens in real life…

– Who is usually the person that first discovers an outbreak?

– What would this person do next?Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 102/17/19

GENERAL PHASES OF AN OUTBREAK INVESTIGATION

Descriptive

ExplanatoryResponse

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 112/17/19

THE DESCRIPTIVE PHASE

Describe Descriptive epidemiology: who, what, where, when?

Find Find cases systematically and record information

Define Verify the diagnosis and construct a case definition

Confirm Confirm existence of an outbreak

Prepare Prepare for fieldwork

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 122/17/19

CDC HIV and AIDS timeline:https://npin.cdc.gov/pages/hiv-and-aids-timeline

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 132/17/19

HIV in the US

2/17/19 Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 14

HOW DO YOU PREPARE FOR FIELDWORK?• Form a team

– Group work: who should be in a team?

• Learn about the disease• Make administrative, personnel,

and logistic arrangements• Coordinate with local contacts

2/17/19 Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 15

Epidemiology

LaboratoryEnvironmental

CONFIRM THE OUTBREAK• REMEMBER: not all increases in number of cases

represent outbreaks!

– What are examples of increases in cases that do NOT represent an outbreak?

• Review reports

• Confirm same disease

• Confirm the number of cases exceeds the usual number

2/17/19 Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 16

CASE DEFINITION2/17/19 Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 17

• laboratory confirmed, compatible symptoms, more specific Confirmed

• Compatible symptoms, epidemiologically linkedProbable

• Compatible symptoms, more sensitivePossible or Suspected

2/17/19 Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 18

MMWR 64(03);70-73

After defining a case, describe: who, where, when? Ebola, 2014

5 MIN BREAK

GENERAL PHASES OF AN OUTBREAK INVESTIGATION

Descriptive

ExplanatoryResponse

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 202/17/19

THE EXPLANATORY PHASE

Reconcile Reconcile epidemiology with laboratory and environmental findings

Test Evaluate hypotheses epidemiologically

Hypothesize Develop hypotheses

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 212/17/19

GENERATING HYPOTHESES IN AN OUTBREAK

• Hypothesis: educated guess about an association between an exposure and outcome, and/or about mode of spread.

– Testable

• How to generate hypothesis?– Subject-matter knowledge

– Descriptive epidemiology (where, who, where?)

– Outliers (�� ���������– Talk to people! (open ended questionnaires)

2/17/19Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak

investigation 22

EPIDEMIOLOGY (IN ONE SLIDE)• How do you test if something is a

cause for a disease?• Conduct a study by

1. identifying a cohort of people who have the potential to have the disease

2. Ask about their exposures (X)

3. Analyze the data on exposures and disease to test the hypotheses1. Are those exposed to X more

likely to get disease?

2. Are those with disease more likely to have been exposed to X?

2/17/19 Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 23

Naveen Phuyalhttps://www.slideshare.net/naveen5112/5-cohort-studies

2/17/19 Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 24

What patients reported in open ended interviews:• 5 of 5 ate ground beef • 3 of 5 ate strawberries • 5 of 5 ate raw cookie dough• 4 of 5 ate Brand X raw cookie dough

Cases Controls

Ate raw cookie dough 33 4

Did not eat raw cookie dough

3 33

Could this be due to chance? p<0.0001

E. coli through raw cookie dough

Epidemiology

LaboratoryEnvironmental

THE RESPONSE PHASE

Communicate Communicate findings

Surveillance Initiate or maintain surveillance

Control Implement and evaluate prevention and control measures

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 252/17/19

R E L A T I V E P R I O R I T Y O F I N V E S T I G A T I V E A N D C O N T R O L M E A S U R E S

2/17/19 Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 26

PREVENTION AND CONTROL MEASURES• Immediate control measures

– Work with persons at risk

– Reduce mortality (early presentation, hypoglycemia)

– Reduce morbidity (food before bed)

• Long term control measures

– Work with regulators and government

– Address underlying vulnerabilities (under-nutrition)

2/17/19 Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 27

Acute neurological encephalopathy, India

WWI

Great depression

WWII

Broadcast ad ban 1971

First modern report linking smoking and lung cancer 1950

Federal cigarette tax doubles 1983

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 282/17/19

GENERAL PHASES OF AN OUTBREAK INVESTIGATION

Descriptive

ExplanatoryResponse

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 292/17/19

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

2/17/19 Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 30

Dr. Kayla Laserson, Investigating Outbreaks course in HSPH (EPI523)

CDC EIS Resources

India EIS Programme

ASSIGNMENTA B E G I N N E R ’ S G U I D E TO O U T B R E A K I N V E S T I G AT I O N

2/17/19 Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 31

ASSIGNMENTOPTION A

• Choose one outbreak in history you’re interested in exploring. Focus on one outbreak (e.g. Ebola during 2014-15), rather than a disease.

• Describe to the class how this outbreak was investigated. Make sure to identify historical events with the different steps in an outbreak investigation you have learned in this class.

• As a bonus, critique aspects of the investigation and tell us what you would have done if you were investigating the outbreak.

– 5 min presentation

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 322/17/19

OUTBREAKS MENTIONED IN THIS CLASS• SARS

• Acute neurological encephalopathy (lychee)

• Cholera

• HIV

• Ebola

• �����• Cookie dough E. coli outbreak

2/17/19 Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 33

But you can choose any other outbreak in history!

• Toxic shock syndrome

• Influenza during WWI

• A recent school/migrant tuberculosis outbreak

• MERS

• Others…

ASSIGNMENTOPTION B

• Either choose or design a fictional productwhich illustrates the ideas of an outbreak investigation

• Present to the class how this fictional productembodies the different steps in an outbreak investigation. Make sure to explain what this fictional product is, and answer the following questions:

– Which steps are illustrated in this product?

– Which steps are missing in this product?

– What is the role of individual citizens in this outbreak, and what is the role of the government in this outbreak?

– 5 min presentation

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 342/17/19

FICTIONAL PRODUCT• A novel

• A painting

• A game

• A TV/radio show

• A song

• Anything else

Ruoran Li: A beginner’s guide to outbreak investigation 2/17/19 35

Extra challenge:Find a Chinese language literature/game/show!