dr ramon lobato - swinburne university of technology - piracy - friend or foe?

Piracy: Friend or Foe?

Ovum OTT TV Summit 2016

Dr Ramon Lobato

Senior research fellow

Swinburne Institute for Social Research

Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne

rlobato@swin.edu.au

Research focus

- Socio-cultural media research:

understanding what audiences do

- Special interest in piracy Understanding piracy in relation to

changing market structures

Cultural contexts & values underpinning behaviour

Approaches

- Tracking technologies and uses

- Legal and policy analysis

- International comparisons

Research focus

- Socio-cultural media research:

understanding what audiences do

- Special interest in piracy Understanding piracy in relation to

changing market structures

Cultural contexts & values underpinning behaviour

Approaches

- Tracking technologies and uses

- Legal and policy analysis

- International comparisons

What do we know about digital piracy?

What do we know about digital piracy?

Analysis of P2P traffic shows trends in relation to particular content.

Examples: TorrentFreak data

What do we know about digital piracy?

Focus groups and surveys measure attitudes and behaviours.

Examples: CCA/IPAF, Dept of Comms, MPAA, Essential, IPSOS, etc

What do we know about digital piracy?

Economic modelling produces estimates of industry losses.

Examples: MPAA, ACIG, BSA, etc.

How relevant is all this data to OTT TV?

Not entirely relevant, because:

1) Piracy is not a ‘thing’; it is a market effect.

2) Piracy metrics don’t help us to understand

willingness to pay or revenue foregone.

3) Streaming markets have specific

characteristics that we need to consider.

Let’s look at the issue differently,

starting with the audience

1: Audiences are diversely motivated

CATALOG DEPTH

DIVERSITY

QUALITY

TIMELINESSCO

NT

EN

T-R

ELA

TE

D

RELIABILITY

CONVENIENCE

LATENCY/GLITCHES

INTERACTIVITY

UX

PRICE

VALUE

REPUTATION

PAYM’T MODEL

EC

ON

OM

ICS

OC

IO-C

ULT

UR

ALBRAND POWER

SOCIAL NORMS

TECH-SAVVINESS

CONNECTIVITY

2: The streaming market is complex;

formal + informal services coexist

3: There are multiple kinds of piracy

with diverse economic effects

Substitution effect for TVOD,

but not SVOD and AVOD

A la carte

D/L piracy

Substitution effect for SVOD,

TVOD (sometimes) and AVOD

Pirate

streaming

Revenue dispersal,

not substitution

Parallel

importation

Usability and convenience factors

BIT TORRENT

- 15 years old

- Diverse content

- Trackers

moderately

blockable

- Often used w/ VPN

- Usability: medium

ILLEGAL

STREAMING SITES

- Ephemeral but

plentiful

- General and niche

sites

- On-demand or live

(for sports)

- Usability: easy

POPCORN TIME

- P2P backend,

Netflix-like client

- Mostly US

movies and TV

- Close to OTTTV

experience

- Usability: easy

PROXIES,

VPNs

- Location tools

(+ anon)

- Parallel-

importing, not

piracy

- Usability:

medium

BIT TORRENT

- 15 years old

- Diverse content

- Trackers

moderately

blockable

- Often used w/ VPN

- Usability: medium

ILLEGAL

STREAMING SITES

- Ephemeral but

plentiful

- General and niche

sites

- On-demand or live

(for sports)

- Usability: easy

(but higher risk)

POPCORN TIME

- P2P backend,

Netflix-like client

- Mostly US

movies and TV

- Close to OTTTV

experience

- Usability: easy

PROXIES,

VPNs

- Location tools

(+ anon)

- Parallel-

importing, not

piracy

- Usability:

medium

Usability and convenience factors

Usability and convenience factors

BIT TORRENT

- 15 years old

- Diverse content

- Trackers

moderately

blockable

- Often used w/ VPN

- Usability: medium

ILLEGAL

STREAMING SITES

- Ephemeral but

plentiful

- General and niche

sites

- On-demand or live

(for sports)

- Usability: easy

(but higher risk)

POPCORN TIME

- P2P backend,

Netflix-like client

- Mostly US

movies and TV

- Close to OTTTV

experience

- Usability: easy

PROXIES,

VPNs

- Location tools

(+ anon)

- Parallel-

importing, not

piracy

- Usability:

medium

BIT TORRENT

- 15 years old

- Diverse content

- Trackers

moderately

blockable

- Often used w/ VPN

- Usability: medium

ILLEGAL

STREAMING SITES

- Ephemeral but

plentiful

- General and niche

sites

- On-demand or live

(for sports)

- Usability: easy

POPCORN TIME

- P2P backend,

Netflix-like client

- Mostly US

movies and TV

- Close to OTTTV

experience

- Usability: easy

PROXIES,

VPNs

- Location tools

(+ anon)

- Parallel-

importing, not

piracy

- Usability:

medium

Usability and convenience factors

Usability and convenience factors

BIT TORRENT

- 15 years old

- Diverse content

- Trackers

moderately

blockable

- Often used w/ VPN

- Usability: medium

ILLEGAL

STREAMING SITES

- Ephemeral but

plentiful

- General and niche

sites

- On-demand or live

(for sports)

- Usability: easy

(but higher risk)

POPCORN TIME

- P2P backend,

Netflix-like client

- Mostly US

movies and TV

- Close to OTTTV

experience

- Usability: easy

PROXIES,

VPNs

- Location tools

(+ anon)

- Parallel-

importing, not

piracy

- Usability:

medium

From software to hardware

But let’s not forget the convenience factor

CATALOG DEPTH

DIVERSITY

QUALITY

TIMELINESSCO

NT

EN

T-R

ELA

TE

D

RELIABILITY

CONVENIENCE

LATENCY/GLITCHES

INTERACTIVITY

UX

PRICE

VALUE

REPUTATION

PAYM’T MODEL

EC

ON

OM

ICS

OC

IO-C

ULT

UR

ALBRAND POWER

SOCIAL NORMS

TECH-SAVVINESS

CONNECTIVITY

But let’s not forget the convenience factor

But let’s not forget the convenience factor

SERVICE NUMBER + TYPE OF USER ACTIONS REQUIRED

3 Open URL/app, select content, play

NETFLIX USA +

DNS/VPN

11+Register & pay x2, install & open client/change

DNS settings, open URL/app, select content,

play

STREAMER BOX

20+Buy box, watch online tutorials, (download and

install player), change settings, find & install

repo, install addon, select content, play

In conclusion, 3 strategic questions

(and reasons to be optimistic)

• What is the relative exposure of OTT TV

to piracy?

• What’s the relationship between piracy

and paid consumption?

• Where is the value – for companies and

for consumers?

In conclusion, 3 strategic questions

(and reasons to be optimistic)

• What is the relative exposure of OTT TV

to piracy? → value-add of curation, serendipity, etc

• What’s the relationship between piracy

and paid consumption?

• Where is the value – for companies and

for consumers?

In conclusion, 3 strategic questions

(and reasons to be optimistic)

• What is the relative exposure of OTT TV

to piracy? → value-add of curation, serendipity, etc

• What’s the relationship between piracy

and paid consumption? → may co-exist

• Where is the value – for companies and

for consumers?

In conclusion, 3 strategic questions

(and reasons to be optimistic)

• What is the relative exposure of OTT TV

to piracy? → value-add of curation, serendipity, etc

• What’s the relationship between piracy

and paid consumption? → may co-exist

• Where is the value – for companies and

for consumers? → focus on what piracy cannot

provide

Thank you

Queries, comments,

feedback welcome:

rlobato@swin.edu.au