dr rui gomes - 2009 presentation on the millenium development goals
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The Millennium Development Goals:Approaches to Transformation
By Rui A. Gomes
06 July 2009
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Monitoring the Millennium Development Goals
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The state will be based on the rule of law
Prices will be stable and food suppliessecured. The economy and finances will bemanaged efficiently, transparently, and willbe free from corruption
Living standards and services will improve forall, and income will be fairly distributed
Production and employment will increase inall sectors
They will actively participate in economic,social and political development, promoting
social equality and national unity
People will be literate, knowledgeable andskilled. They will be healthy, and live a longproductive life
East Timor will be a democratic country with aprosperous society with adequate food,shelter and clothing for all people and a
sustainable environment
Timor-Leste: Vision 2020
The Millennium Declaration
The Millennium Declaration
Corresponding M D G
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Human Development Ranking 2008(1-179, 179 is the lowest)
Deve
lopingAsia
Pa
cificIslands
Fuelexporters
Timor-Leste
Sub-SaharanAfrica
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
179
Population growth, 2002-06
(in percent pa)
Tim
or-Leste
Fue
lExporters
Dev
eloping
Countries
Dev
elopingAsia
Sub
-SaharaAfrica
Pac
ificIslands
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Population growth is high but human
development indicators are low
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Human development indicators are low even in
oil-producing countries
Sierra Leone
MozambiqueChad
Papua New GuineaSudan
Myanmar
Sao Tome and Principe
Cape VerdeViet Nam
PhilippinesAzerbaijan
Thailand
Malaysia
Portugal
Timor-Leste
AustraliaNorway Iceland
NigeriaAngola
Cambodia
Indonesia
Singapore
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Oil-producing countries
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One in two Timorese is poor
Poverty is multidimensional
and it is not just about income
Vulnerable groups are the most
affected
Poverty affects men and
women differently
High unemployment rate
amongst youth and
underemployment
Domestic violence and crime
are prevalent
The currentThe current
situation...situation...
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50%
14%
36%
Timor-Leste may miss this target...Timor-Leste may miss this target...
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Food security is key to achieve GoalFood security is key to achieve Goal
1...1...
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In 2001, the children who died before they reached the age of fivewere 144/1000. In 2006, the rate dropped to 125/1000. Thetarget to be reached by 2015 will be 96/1000.
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Services are not down to suco and aldeia levels yet...
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The possibility of an outbreak of HIV/AIDS in near future...
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The incidence of malaria in Timor-Leste remains high...In 2000 thecases detected were 113/1000, and increased to 206/1000 in2006. The targt is to bring the incidence down to 45/1000 by2015...
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Unemployment continues to be a big challenge...It is expectedthat the high growth rate in the domestic economy wouldcreate more job opportunities, particularly to the young...
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Scaling-up for the MDGs
MDG
Target
Scaled-up plans to achieve the
MDGs based on country needs
assessments
YEAR
MDG
TARGET
DEADLINE
1990 2007 2015
MDG BASE
YEAR
Slow/little progress to date
2002
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FROM TECHNOCRATIC TO DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIC CHOICE FOR
ACHIEVING THE MDGs
EXISTING APPROACH
EXPERT DRIVEN
RIGID FRAMEWORK COST ESTIMATES DERIVED
FROM INACCURATEMODELS
ASYMMETRY
PROPOSED APPROACH
COUNTRY DRIVEN
FLEXIBLE PROCESS
EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY
MAKING
EQUITY
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Whats next?
Stimulate the domestic economy through
rural development
Invest in human capital
Invest in infrastructure
Promote peace and stability
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How much it will cost to reduce income poverty?
Table 1: Yearly Investment in US Dollars (million)
Required to Meet Poverty Headcount Ratio Target in
Rural Area
Anti-poor growth Neutral growth Pro-poor growth
2008 75.90 52.06 46.89
2009 66.92 53.18 45.80
2010 62.63 51.74 44.60
2011 63.56 51.97 43.63
2012 63.11 52.27 42.88
2013 64.23 50.31 42.20
2014 65.91 49.00 41.16
2015 64.19 48.35 40.31
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