dr. vinton g. cerf

1

Tracking the Internet into the 21st Century

Vint Cerf

June 2007

2

Internet Evangelist

at Work

3

Internet - Global Statistics

(approx. 3.6 Billion Telephone Terminations including 2.5 B mobiles and 1 Billion PCs [Comp. Industries Assoc.])

22.5 Million Hosts (Bellcore June 1997)

50 Million Users (NUA Jul 1997)

433 Million Hosts

(ISC Jan 2007)

1,114 Million Users(InternetWorldStats.com,

Mar 19,2007)

4

360#3

UCSBPDP10

940

#2SRI

#4UTAH

#1UCLA

Sigma7

The Original ARPANET

Dec 1969

5

The SRI Packet Radio Van

6

Packet Satellite Ground Station ETAM W. VA

7

First Three-Network Test of Internet

November 22, 1977

8

Internet 1999

9

Internet Penetration Jan 2007

Asia 398.7 M

No. Amer. 233.2 M

Europe 314.8 M

Latin Am 96.4 M

Africa 33.3 M

Mid-east 19.4 M

Oceania/AU 18.4 M

Total 1,114 M

Source http://www.internetworldstats.com/

No. AM

EuropeAsia

Latin AmAfricaMid East Oceania

16.9% total penetration

10

Technology Shapers

• Internet uses any communication service (IP on everything!)

• IP carries anything digital

• End/End Principle (neutrality and user freedom)

• Radio supplies mobility

• Fiber/Cable/DSL supplies speed

• Broadband (choice, symmetry)

• IPv6 supplies address space

11

IPv4 runout diagram (Geoff Huston)

http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html

12

Internet Traffic Statistics

HTTP downloads include traditional text and images represent 45% of all Web traffic.

Streaming video is 36%

Streaming audio is 5%

YouTube is 20% of all HTTP traffic and thus nearly 10% of all Internet traffic

Source: Ellacoya, June 20070

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

HT

TP

P2

P

Ne

ws

NH

-strm

Ga

min

g

VO

IP

Traffic %

13

Socio-Economic Effects of Internet

Information Consumers are becoming Producers

Democratic access to the world’s information

“Internet is for Everyone” – Internet Society

New educational alternatives and outlets

New business models (value add, low digital media costs)

Risk factors (spam, viruses/worms, social abuse, misinformation, fraud)

Innovation at the edge (e.g. wikipedia)

Localization (information, interfaces, cultural styles)

14

Mobility and Mobiles

• 2.5 Billion Mobiles and counting

• Short Message Systems

• Payment systems

• Innovative interfaces (challenges!)

• Navigation systems– GPS, Galileo, Google Earth/Maps,…

• Geo-location based services

15

Internet-enabled Devices

16

Internet-enabled Devices

Programmable – Java, Python, etc.

Examples:

• WebTV, Personal Digital Assistants, Mobiles,Video games, Picture Frames, Washing Machines, Surf Board!

• Refrigerator (and the bathroom scales)

• Automobiles (Japan, Germany)

• Internet-enabled wine corks (also note new quantum theory of wine: Schrödinger’s wine bottle)

• Internet-enabled socks (clothing)

• Universal Remote Controls

17

Internet Research Problems

Security at all levels

Internet “Erlang” formulas

QOS debates (smart routers?)

Internationalized Domain Names (ccTLDs & GTLDs)

Distributed Algorithms

Presence (multi-level)

Mobility, persistence (processes, connections)

Multihoming

Multipath routing

Broadcast utilization

Mesh and Sensor networks

Scaling (of everything) – IPv6

18

Information management

Semantic Networking

automatic tagging, improved indexing and relevance

Modal indexing (video, audio, text, databases?)

Time and Location as organizing paradigms for data

Are there other semantic organizing principles? People?

What to do about Information decay (Bit Rot)?

is it like fighting tooth decay?

need to preserve bits, software, OS and hardware?

19

New Application Challenges

IPTV and effects of Symmetric Broadband

vPOD practices

Dynamic and interactive advertising

Merging of Virtual and Real Environments

linking of real instruments to virtual spaces

advertising in virtual environments

20

Unsustainable Trends

Increasing Carbon Emissions

% of world population that is poor

Increase in GDP for Health Care

Decreasing ecological diversity

Increasing ocean fishing

Increasing number of nuclear weapons

Decreasing retirement age

Persistant Oil production

US Trade Deficit

21

Sustainable Trends

Increasing computing power, network capacity, storage capacity

Decrease in the cost of everything

Increasing globalization

Increasing labor mobility

Increasing lifetime and productivity

Increasing urbanization

Increasing IQ

Increasing human enhancement (e.g. implants, augmentation)

22

InterPlaNetary Internet

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

2003-2004 Missions to Mars

Spirit

• launched 6/10/2003

• arrived Jan 4, 2004

• Gusev Crater in Gusev Plain

Opportunity

• Launched 7/7/2003

• arrived Jan 25, 2004

• Meridiani Planum

31

32

Mars Orbiters

Mars Odyssey (NASA)

Mars Express (European Space Agency)

Mars Global Surveyor (NASA) [RIP Nov 2, 2006 – 10 yrs]

Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (NASA)

Mars Odyssey relays 95% of all data from Spirit and Opportunity

33

Interplanetary Internet:“InterPlaNet” (IPN)

•Planetary internets

•Interplanetary Gateways

•Interplanetary Long-Haul Protocol

•Delayed Binding of Identifiers

•Email-like behavior

•TDRSS and NASA in-space routing

•Delay and Disruption Tolerant Protocols– Tactical Mobile applications (DARPA)

– Civilian Mobile applications (SameNet!)

34

35

36

37

38

•End-to-end information flow across the solar system

•Layered architecture for evolvability and interoperability

•IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long round trip light times

•Integrated communications and navigation services

39