dsd-int 2015 - hydrological forecasting and decision making in australia - justin robinson

Justin Robinson, Jeff Perkins and Bruce Quig

Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

Hydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia

The Bureau's Hydrological Forecasting Services

Seasonal Forecasts

7 Day Forecasts

Flood Warning Service

• The Seasonal Forecasting Service commenced in 2010

The 7 day forecasts commenced in August and was the first service

using forecasts provided by HyFS.

• The Bureau has been providing flood warnings for over 50 years.

HyFS will become fully operational in all forecasting centres this year.

Australian Flood Warning Service

Forecasting

Decision Making

Response

Bureau

Emergency Services

Community

• The flood forecasting service is a partnership across all

levels of government.

• Strong working relationships are essential.

• A great forecast is worth nothing if there is no response!

Flooding in Australia

Tasmania: Many small rivers and a large amount of hydro-power generation.

Great Dividing Range

East: Many small rivers flowing east to the sea.

West: Large river basins that flow west into the Murray–Darling Basin.

Western Australia: Many large river basins in the north, but sparsely populated.

Inland Australia: Little rainfall and rivers do not flow to the ocean.

Southwest WA: Large decrease in rainfall and little recent flooding.

Most of the Australian population lives along the east coast and is

flood-affected

Institutional Arrangements are Essential

• There are three levels of government in

Australia – National (Bureau), State and Local.

• The Bureau is actively engaged in

consolidating the institutional arrangements.

• The Australia - New Zealand Emergency

Management Committee (ANZEMC) provides

an agreed and clear allocation of roles

responsibilities.

• There are Flood Warning Consultative

Committees (FWCC) in each state.

• Roles are documented in National and State

Arrangements.

http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/

Roles and Responsibilities

• The Bureau is generally responsible for

the rain gauge network

• State and local government are generally

responsible for the river gauge network

• Bureau issues warnings and forecasts

river levels at key locations

• State Emergency Services and local

government interpret the forecasts and

ensure that the community responds

River gauges ~ 2600 (5 per cent Bureau)

Rain gauges ~ 4100 (50 per cent Bureau)

The Bureau's Flood Warning Services

• Primary products:

» Rainfall and river alerts

» Flood Watch

» Flood Scenarios

» Flood Warnings

» Flood data and information

• Products aimed to match user needs for

» Planning, Preparation, Response,

Recovery (PPRR)

» Predictions for rising limb, peak and

falling limb based on agreed flood

classifications

Effective Decision Making Requires Flood Intelligence

A great forecast is worth

nothing if we don't know what

actions to take

The collection of flood intelligence is a key

responsibility of the emergency

management organisations.

» What is the impact of forecast floods levels?

» What protective actions need to be taken?

» When and who needs to take action?

Flood intelligence is used to provide Flood Classifications

Minor: closes minor roads and low

level bridges

Moderate: inundation of low lying areas,

may require evacuations,

major bridges cut

Major: extensive rural inundation,

towns isolated,

urban areas flooded

Flood intelligence cards (NSW SES)

NSW SES 2015

• Links gauge heights to flood effects

and actions.

• The first flood intelligence cards were

developed in the 1970s & 80’s.

• First databases in 1990.

• Large data set derived from actual

floods… less from design (synthetic)

events.

An integrated flood intelligence system (Victoria)

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT LAND WATER AND PLANNING VICTORIA

Outcome of the Victorian Floods Review

(2011) was the development of an integrated

flood intelligence system – FloodZoom

» Flood Warnings and Forecasts

» Real Time Observations

» Flood Mapping

» Property Details

» Sharing information with other agencies

The user can fully interact with the available

flood intelligence and real time data and

forecasts.

Ensuring that agencies and the community take action

• Community readiness

• Warnings and forecasts that are clearly

communicated

• Supporting evidence from multiple sources

• Consistent messaging across all

organisations and communication channels

• Confidence in the Bureau's forecasts

• Requires strong personal and institutional

relationships between the Bureau and

response agencies

Community Readiness

The Bureau undertakes pre-season tours

to ensure that communities are ready.

Tours are undertaken in conjunction with

severe weather (cyclone season),

emergency services and local

government.

Personal engagement with stakeholders is

essential when the critical decisions need

to be made.

www.pfes.nt.gov.au/

www.dfes.wa.gov.au/safetyinformation/flood

Flood Watch • Provides a heads up for possible future

flooding. Usually 2-4 days notice.

• Based on rainfall forecasts and is

developed in close consultation

between the meteorologists,

hydrologists and emergency services.

• Very important service because it is

used by agencies to reallocate

resources and prepare for potential

flooding.

Flood Warnings

• The Bureau talks to the emergency

services – they need additional

context to take action on important

forecasts.

• Emergency Services add additional

safety advice and actions to be

undertaken when communicating to

the public.

• The SES communicate the

information at the local level to the

community effected.

Warning Entry Tool (WET)

• New tool for entering flood warnings

• Efficient and consistent production of

flood forecasts and warnings

• Encodes numerical forecasts (level,

time, type, likelihood) that can support

new forecasting products and

integrate with flood intelligence

systems like FloodZoom

• Integration with HyFS – the forecaster

can monitor issued forecasts in real

time

Web based services

• Plots, tables and maps of the

latest rainfall and river

information – updated at least

hourly

• Provides important context to

the flood warnings and

forecasts

Future Plans for Improving Web Services

Spatial warnings Making our knowledge available

Social Media - Twitter

• Can provide important contextual information that

cannot be included in the flood warning

• Important communication channel for the media

and public

Flood Forecasting Service Trajectory

Deterministic predictions

Best effort QPF from duty forecaster

Event-based riverine flood models

Peak predictions for point locations

Assistance with flash flood

Text based human readable products

Ensemble predictions showing uncertainty

Specialist QPF services utilising ensembles

Continuous flood and flow (7-10 days)

Full hydrograph forecasts

National Flash Flood Information Repository

Machine readable products integrated with

downstream decision support systems

Moving from To deliver

Next Gen Hydrological Forecasting System - HyFS

Stage 1 Requirements and Procurement (2012)

Stage 2 HyFS Functional System (2013)

Stage 3

Stage 4

Stage 5

HyDS National Data System (2013/14)

Model Migration and Integration (2014)

Operational Cutover (2015)

Stage 6 HyFS Metadata Management System

HyFS 2020 Service Harmonisation and Automation

T0

Business Drivers for HyFS

Efficient, robust and sustainable flood warning service

National system – with service delivery from regional and national offices

Meets operational best practice – high level of availability, ready for the COI

Better use of weather forecasting guidance – NexGen, ACCESS, ECMWF

Supports current forecasting techniques – URBS, SWIFT, Peak Heights,…

Realises benefits from investment in R&D – can evolve to utilise new advances

Supports collaboration – with forecasting agencies in Australia and overseas

What's Next – HyFS 2020 (2015-2020)

To build on HyFS to automate and harmonise manual services.

2016. Build the capability of HyFS to deliver products and services

2017. Automated Alerting

2018. Automated Flash Flood Guidance

2019. Automated Flood Scenarios

2020. Enterprise Archiving Solution for the Flood Warning Observation Data

Automated Alerting

Heavy rainfall

bulletin

River height

bulletin

Tasmania

river alerts

Twitter Like Alert Message ?

Automated Riverine Flash Flood Guidance

• Automated flash flood guidance

product.

• Would replace the current manual

riverine flash flood service in NSW

Flash Flood Threat Catchment Wetness Forecast Rainfall

• Extension of Automated Alerting?

• Continuous hydrological modelling?

• Short-Term Ensemble forecasts?

• Nowcasts?

Flood scenario product

Victorian Flood

Scenario Product

7 day forecast using NOAA's

Globe Ensemble Forecast

System (GEFS) rainfall forecasts.

• A service that may be driven by

ensemble rainfall forecasts?

• What additional contextual information do the

emergency service require to interpret these

forecasts?

Conclusions

Effective decision making requires strong institutional and personal relationships

between the forecasting and response agencies as well as the community.

The Bureau is responsible for forecasting while the state based emergency services are

responsible for deciding on the appropriate response.

Flood intelligence is critical in determining what actions needs be taken.

Forecasts and warnings need to be clearly communicated across multiple

communication channels together with contextual information and personal briefings

between the forecaster and the emergency response agencies.

HyFS is going to be fully operational by the end of the year. Plans are in place to

leverage off its capability to automate, harmonise and enhance our services.

Thank you

Any questions?