dts tecnosylva fire response

15 years supporting Wildfires

operations

From Aragón to San Diego

J Ramirez & JM Lahoz (tecnosylva)

D Buckley (dtswildfire)

Cedar Fire, going through Sycamore Creek Neighborhood in Poway Ca., October 2003 http://youtu.be/-IG9Jhx4xIA

Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response System at NASA/GSFC http://youtu.be/eET7jwJOOqA

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

acr

es

bu

rnt

Fires

Acres

http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_

statistics.html

fires

Lower number of fires but bigger - The better we are fighting fires, the bigger those we cannot win

American Flight 1956-57 Yes, it is Arc !

1994 Spain fire season 437.000 ha burnt

Aragón: Villarluengo 27.000 ha

393 forest rangers 46 engines 9 helicopters 8 helicrews 69 crews 2 advanced command posts 152 small engines + 2 canadair 1 sokol 1 Kamoc 1 BRIF

Helicopter crash in Alcorisa, Mar 18th, 6 fatalities Total fatalities 2011:

Geotechnologies &Wildfires

•

•

Geotechnologies & Wildfires

Wildfire GTs

GIS

GNSS

Mobility

Sensors

Communications Predictive Services

Remote Sensing

BI & Document

Management

Artificial Inteligence

…ok, maybe we need some help on the field ¡¡¡ do you have these trees in US?

What is geospatial fire simulation?

1938 Honey Fire, Louisiana

The science and art of GWS

• Where the fire is going to be in the next …?

• How is it burning process?

• When can we expect to stop it?

• What is the potential of the fire?

• Why is the fire jumping?

All these questions have spatio-temporal answers

Who’s who in GWS

Harry T. Gisborne

First true specialist in forest fire research in the Nation

Jack S. Barrow

Director of the Missoula fire Lab

The Mann Gulch Fire (1949)

Farsite: Mark Finney’s First complete GWS (1991-1998)

for this problem… we need models¡

• Models help us to better understand complex systems

• Helps us to quantify the problems • Fire behavior involves (in a short

approach) – Weather – Fuel – Terrain – Human factors

• Spatial and Temporal combined analysis is needed

Modeling fire behaviour

R. C. Rothermel, 1987

Managing Research for Success Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-101 Berkeley, CA. Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, Forest Service, U.S.

Department of Agriculture; 1987

Models are out there Models completed in period 1990-2007

12 Physical

7 quasi-physical

15 empirical

5 quasi-empirical

11 simulation

22 mathematical analogous

Andrew L. Sullivan Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990–2007

International Journal of Wildland Fire Volume 18 Number 4 2009

.

FBAN’s: the guys that need tools to run the models ant the right place ¡

Refine ignition points, active fronts,

secondary spots

Refinement of the scenario: fuels, firebreaks,

operations

Weather input review: predictions&RAWS vs in

field measurements

Atention to sensible parameters: local wind effects, fuel moisture

Evaluation of observed ROS: field observers, AVL resources, aerial imagery

Weather & Fuel ROS adjustmens

(Adapted from Stratton 2005)

We need to take sims from the lab…

LANL Coupled Fire/Atmosphere Modeling, FIRETEC http://ees.lanl.gov/ees16/FIRETEC.shtml

to the Incident Command Post …

… to support operations

Agency Wide Incident Management

Integrated WF System Vision

Software Vision

Incident Lifecycle

• Includes all phases of wildland firefighting requirements, from:

• Detection

• Resource management

• Response & suppression management

• Impact analysis & damage assessment

• Documentation & tracking

How Does it Work?

• Seamless Synchronization • Uses a data replication

approach based on transactional architecture

• Facilitates exchange of data between seamlessly between users

• Designed to ensure data synchronization occurs in the most severe operational scenarios

• Designed for EOC and related command hierarchy

Vulnerable asset

Dangerous side Wind will push fire toward asset

Save side Wind will push fire away asset

Dangerous side Wind will push fire toward asset

Save side Wind will push fire away asset

Each cell represents: the TIME a fire would take to get to the evacuation point with the given conditions…

Alabama Forestry Commission Suppression Budget Analysis

Fire ignition

Fire Perimeter & Origin

May 7-9, 2007 – St. Clair Stone Fire

St. Clair Stone Fire

Wildfire Simulation – Nearby Communities

St. Clair Stone Fire

Wildfire Simulation – Comparison

Actual Perimeter

Accumulative Population Impacted

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52

16

137 160 244

479

615

1.052

1.229 1.246 1.345

1.418 1.510

1.704

Hour of Wildfire

St. Clair Stone Fire Simulation Accumulative Residential Population Impacted

By Hour Progression of Wildfire

St. Clair Stone Fire

Wildfire Simulation – Impacted Parcels

Total Structures Impacted

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52

39

60

20 32

137

69

258

105

21 33

49

81 89

Stru

ctu

res

Imp

acte

d

Hour of Wildfire

St. Clair Stone Fire Simulation Number of Structures Impacted by Wildfire

By Hour of Progression

Accumulated Structure Loss

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52

$3,9 $7,2 $8,1

$12,8

$24,4

$32,1

$66,8

$73,7 $75,7 $77,9 $81,5

$89,0 $93,6

$ in

Mill

ion

s

Hour of Wildfire

St. Clair Stone Fire Simulation Accumulative Potential $ Loss of Structures

By Hour Progression of Wildfire

Click the image to play the AFC YouTube video that describes

the analysis

new uses of operational simulations

Prevention

• Observed Fire Behavior database

• Fuel management

• Analyze firebreaks efficiency

• Resources location optimization

Operations

• Every Alarm Evaluation

• Multiple incidents

• IAP support

• Integration in DSS

Post fire

• Fire Scenarios

• Impact assesment

• What if?

• Historical analysis

• New local models

Thank you for your attention

I’ve got a question…

anyone joins the lady?

Joaquín Ramírez jramirez@tecnosylva.com

David Buckley

dbuckley@dtsgis.com