eads moores law
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Moores Law and Its Future
Mark Clements
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This WeekMoores Law
History of Transistors and circuits
The Integrated circuit manufacturing process Moore Law is announced
Benefits of ICs
Extrapolating Moores Law to its conclusion Technological advances
Moores Law version 2?
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Discrete Transistors and Circuits
The transistor succeeded the valve in the late 1940s
Electronic engineers began to design complex circuitsusing discrete componentstransistors, resistors, capacitors
Performance and other problems were noticed due tothe number of separate components
Circuits were unreliable and heavyHigh power consumption long time to assemble
Expensive to produce
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The Solution Integrated Circuits
Build entire circuit on a wafer of silicon
Use masking and spraying techniques in manufacturePure silicon wafers made from large crystals of silicon
Areas of silicon doped with suitable elements e.g. Be
Conductive tracks made from aluminiumUse this technique to produce other components e.g.capacitors and resistors on the same wafer
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Problems solved
Inter-device distances reduced faster circuits
Lightweight circuits suitable for space travelCheaper assembly cost after recovery of R&D costs
Identical circuit properties better matching
Less power required less heat dissipated
Smaller circuits smaller devices could be built
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Gordon Moore - Observations
Gordon Moore worked for Fairchild Semiconductors
He noticed a trend in IC manufactureEvery 2 years the number of components on an area ofsilicon doubled*
He published this work in 1965known as Moores Law
His predictions were for 10 years into the future
His work predicted personal computers and fasttelecommunication networks
* Sources vary regarding time period
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Graph of Moores Law
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IC Technologies
Small Scale Integration (SSI) combined around 10discrete components onto 5mm square of silicon
substrate.SSI led to Medium Scale Integration (MSI), then LargeScale Integration (LSI) with many thousands ofcomponents in the same area of silicon.
Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) provided the meansto implement around 1 million components per chip.
Current technology produces silicon wafers with around50 million components per chip. The Pentium 4 has
around 55 million components on the wafer (2003).
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IC Technology
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Why does the law exist?
Some of the factors that contribute to Moores Law:
Manufacturers wishing to keep up with the law
Competition between manufacturers
Successive technologies providing better design tools
Customer demand for better productsMans constant struggle to advance knowledge
There may be other factors too
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The Next Step
Intel have announced that they have the
technology to produce microprocessorscontaining more than 400 million transistors,
running at 10 gigahertz and operating at less
than one volt, in the next five to ten years.
This is in line with Moores law
http://www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.htm?iid=techtrends+tech_manuf_expertise&http://www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.htm?iid=techtrends+tech_manuf_expertise& -
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Shrinking the Size of a Component
How small can a component become?
What limits the size of a device? What do we make the devices from?
Do quantum effects have an influence here?
If there is a limit, what happens to MooresLaw?
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The Current Limitations
Circuits cannot be reduced beyond atomic size
Quantum effects reduce the reliability as size decreases
Lithographic techniques become more complex as the
size of components becomes smaller than the
wavelength of lightSpeed of electrical signals is finite
This suggests that Moores Law will finally end
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Lateral Thinking
To improve the performance of devices, new
technologies are in development:
Quantum storage (quantum data registers - a faster,
more efficient way to store and retrieve data than the
binary system we use today)
Light operated transistors
Electro-optical polymers and more are showing new
techniques for achieving the ever higher performance
demanded by industry and consumers
http://www.umich.edu/~focuspfc/http://www.evidenttech.com/applications/optical_transistor.phphttp://www.evidenttech.com/applications/optical_transistor.phphttp://www.umich.edu/~focuspfc/ -
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The Future of ICs
Moore acknowledged that his "law" won't hold forever.
He asserted that the right technological approaches can
delay "forever", extending the longevity of his original
prediction.
Intel are working on new ideas such as SiGe and
strained silicon to delay the end of Moores Law
Designing transistors that switch at speeds around THz(can switch on and off a trillion times per second)
The advances continue!
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The End of the Line?
It is obvious that technology will improve
We may meet the lower size limit of atransistor
Therefore the abilities of the transistor itself
will have to improve instead Faster switching, lower power designs etc.
ICs still improve
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Moores Law version 2?
After his law is no longer valid what can we use tomeasure trends?
Component density?No it would be fairly constant
Performance?Yes but which metric?
Switching rate?
Individual or bulk?Rise time?Access time or read/ write timeOther measurable attributes
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Moore version 2s metric(s)
Technological advances will continue as long as there isdemand for digital devices
It is immaterial whether the component density limit isreached
Another metric will have to be chosen to allow the ICevolution to be mapped and to allow valid predictions to
be made
Which metric this is extremely complex to choose
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Conclusion
Moores law will eventually reach its inevitable conclusion
Technology will continue to advance
ICs with improved properties will be manufactured
Another metric will need to be chosen to allow the future
trends to be mapped and predictedThe complexity of current IC design means this choice
will be difficult
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References
http://www.intel.com/labs/features/mi03031.htm#extend
http://www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.htm?iid=techtr
ends+tech_manuf_expertise&http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htm
http://www.intel.com/labs/features/mi03031.htm
http://www.intel.com/labs/features/mi03031.htmhttp://www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.htm?iid=techtrends+tech_manuf_expertise&http://www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.htm?iid=techtrends+tech_manuf_expertise&http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htmhttp://www.intel.com/labs/features/mi03031.htmhttp://www.intel.com/labs/features/mi03031.htmhttp://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htmhttp://www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.htm?iid=techtrends+tech_manuf_expertise&http://www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.htm?iid=techtrends+tech_manuf_expertise&http://www.intel.com/labs/features/mi03031.htm
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