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Early Warning DecisionSupport System for theNational DisasterWarning Center, Thailand
Dr. Allen Clark, Pacific Disaster Center, Maui, Hawaiiaclark@pdc.org
INTERNATIONAL DISASTER REDUCTION CONFERENCEEarly Warning - Development, Implementation and Innovation
31 August 2006Davos, Switzerland
Allen Clark - PDC
Thailand Disaster Background
Most Significant Disasters: In past 30 years, 10
disasters have affected over35 million people, combined
These disasters are floods,droughts, tsunamis, andwind storms
Tsunami killed 8,345 in2004
Over past 60 years, 10disasters killed over 100people in each event
Source: EM-DAT www.em-dat.net
Allen Clark - PDC
Purpose of PDC Technical Assistance
Work closely with the National Disaster WarningCenter in its overall creation andimplementation, and specifically to: Define and document existing capabilities and
emergency processes Implement an integrated architecture for an all-hazard
disaster early-warning and decision support platform Create a platform that is user-friendly—with web-
accessible GIS, automated event tracking, and basichazard modeling
Allen Clark - PDC
Early Warning Components…
Earthquake
Tsunami
Floods/Storms
National / International
Data Providers
Modeling
Assessment
Risk Maps
Risk Analysis
PublicNotification
Allen Clark - PDC
… Leading to the DesiredIntegrated Solution
Earthquake
Tsunami
Floods/Storms
Modeling
Assessment
Risk Maps
Risk Analysis
National / International
Data Providers
PublicNotification
Allen Clark - PDC
NDWCDecisionSupportSystem
CONOPS SystemRequirements
DataInventory
ICTSurvey
SystemArchitecture
SystemImplementation
Early Warning System:Principal Project Components
Allen Clark - PDC
Goal:To develop the requirements for theDecision Support System, therebyimproving and enhancing the NDWC’sdecision-making capabilities to provideearly warning.
Concept of Operations
Allen Clark - PDC
InformationSources(Input)
Evaluation & Decision
InformationUsers
(Output)
ThaiOrganizations
(Domestic) CentralGovernment
LocalGovernment
RescueUnits
AffectedGroups
GeneralPublic
InternationalOrganizations
ContactCenter
Concept of Operations Flow ofInformation
Allen Clark - PDC
Purpose of ICT Gap Analysis
Determine Short-term ICT Gaps for theEstablishment of a Multi-Hazard Early WarningSystem: Identify the data feeds and linkages to/from NDWC; Document the existing ICT and related facilities; Compare the existing ICT with what is needed for
multi-hazard early warning and identify gaps Formulate specifications for hardware/software
Allen Clark - PDC
Approach and ProcessPre-Survey
Analysis
Conduct
Survey
Post-Survey
Analysis
Develop Benchmarks – “Performance measurements foroperation of the NDWC.”
Develop Survey
Compare results against
Benchmarks
AdministrateSurvey
ICT Survey
Identify gaps to guide
ICT acquisition plan
Identify recommendations
to address gaps
Workshop and Spec Hardware/Software
Identify ICT-Related Categories
Identify SupportFunctions
BaselineArchitecture
Allen Clark - PDC
Logical Multi-hazard Early WarningSystem Architecture
Main Services
File Svc
Web Svc (WWW)
EWSCode
DynamicData Processor
DynamicData
Sources
File & GIS Libs
Custom Scripts
DesktopGIS Tools
(COTS)
InternetIP/HTTP
User
DBMS Svc EWSDB
Spatial Data Engine (SDE)
Internet Map Svc (IMS)
Allen Clark - PDC
Early Warning Challenges …
Warnings / Risks areNOT Understood
Information is Scattered Dissemination is Limited “High Availability” and
Redundancy areEssential
Time is LIFE
HURRICANE DAVID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL EP04020000Z WED AUG 29 1979
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 58.0W AT 29/0000ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11KTESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MBMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS 135 KT.WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICALMILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 58.0W AT 29/0000ZAT 28/2300Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 57.0W
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.2N 59.2WMAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.45 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.34 KT... 135NE 135SE 135SW 135NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.8N 60.3WMAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.34 KT... 130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.
Allen Clark - PDC
DynamicData
Processor
EarthquakeAdvisoryBulletin
AutomatedData
Engine
TsunamiAdvisoryBulletin
EarthquakeDetectionSystems
TidalGauge
Readings
TsunamiDetectionSystems
Tsunami Warning Criteria
Tsunami Warning Level
NDWC Atlas
EarthquakeAdvisoryBulletin
TsunamiRiskMaps
TsunamiTravelMap
HazardImpacts
Assessment
WaterLevel Mapand Table
TsunamiAdvisoryBulletin
EarthquakeRiskMaps
PopulationInformation
InfrastructureInformation
NDWCWarnings
Database
NDWC Decision Support Platform
Allen Clark - PDC
In Summary …
Reducing Impacts By: Integrate, Simplify, &
Expedite Processes Understand Dangers
and Risks Disseminate Warnings Decide & Act on Latest
Assessments
HURRICANE DAVID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL EP04020000Z WED AUG 29 1979HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 58.0W AT 29/0000ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMPRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285DEGREES AT 11 KT
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII INNAUTICALREPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 58.0W AT 29/0000ZFORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.2N 59.2WMAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.45 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.34 KT... 135NE 135SE 135SW 135NW.FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.8N 60.3WMAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.34 KT... 130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.
Multi Hazard Information and Warning
Allen Clark - PDC
Acknowledgements:Contributing Authors Ray Shirkhodai - Pacific Disaster Center, Kihei, Maui, Hawaii Cherdsak Virapat - National Disaster Warning Center, Bangkok,
Thailand Stanley Goosby -Pacific Disaster Center, Kihei, Maui, Hawaii James Buika - Pacific Disaster Center, Kihei, Maui, Hawaii Chris Chiesa - Pacific Disaster Center, Kihei, Maui, Hawaii
Project Partners Pacific Disaster Center - USA National Disaster Warning Center – Thailand Lockheed Martin Information Technology, USA Environmental Systems Research Institute, USA Sun Microsystems, Inc. USA
Thank you for your kind attention!
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