eastern pacific post-tropical cyclone rachel discussion number 26

Eastern Pacific Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL DiscussionNumber 26

000

WTPZ43 KNHC 302057

TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014

200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Rachel artfully draws to a close. Deep convection associated with

Rachel dissipated about 15 hours ago and it is unlikely to redevelop

due to unfavorable thermodynamic factors and strong shear. Based on

these conditions, the cyclone is being declared a post-tropical

remnant low at this time. Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased

further and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. Global

model guidance shows the remnant low degenerating into an open

trough by Friday. The official intensity forecast is close to the

previous forecast and the GFS model.

During the last couple of hours, the now-shallow vortex associated

with Rachel has taken on a southward drift. A slow southwestward

motion is expected during the next two days as it continues to move

around the eastern periphery of a low-level ridge. The track

forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, nearly

between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions.

This is the last advisory on Rachel by the National Hurricane

Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under

AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 22.9N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

12H 01/0600Z 22.8N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 01/1800Z 22.6N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 02/0600Z 22.4N 119.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 02/1800Z 22.2N 119.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi/Ramos

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml