ec4333 2008 lecture11

EC4333 Lecture

11Ireland and the EU | Recap

Dr. S. Kinsella | stephenkinsella.net

Today

1. Ireland & The EU

2. Exam stuff

3. Course Recap

1/3 Ireland in the EU

<1973

<1973

depression (negative growth)

high unemployment (18%)

high inflation (16%)

public finances in crisis (deficit of 15.1%)

balance of payments deficit (14.6% of GNP)

depreciating exchange rate

Mass emigration

Rising Poverty

Basket Case

1994~2001

7 years of spectacular growth (average 9%)

low unemployment (3.6%)

low inflation (1.4%)

surpluses on fiscal budget (3.5%)

balance of payments (3.7%)

The Celtic Tiger

2001-2008

6 years of solid growth (average 4%)

2001-2008

6 years of solid growth (average 5.2%)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

35000

40000

45000

50000

GDP Per Capita, US Dollars

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

0.050

0.055

0.060

GDP Real Growth, !

low unemployment (4%)

increasing inflation (~5%)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

0.10

0.15

0.20

Inflation Rate, !

surpluses on fiscal budget turning into

deficits

So.

So.

So.

So.

So.

EU Fundingbuilding the economy; improving transport and communication networks; increasing trade; creating employment; promoting cultural diversity, peace and understanding; cleaning up the environment; restoring tourism amenities; sustaining a country life and protecting human rights

Benefits/Costs of EU Funding

1. billions of euros of EU funding over 33 years

1. billions of euros of EU funding over 33 years

2. a single European market established between the EU members

1. billions of euros of EU funding over 33 years

2. a single European market established between the EU members

3. the break up of national monopolies and their privatisation

1. billions of euros of EU funding over 33 years

2. a single European market established between the EU members

3. the break up of national monopolies and their privatisation

4. deregulation of the marketplace across Europe

1. billions of euros of EU funding over 33 years

2. a single European market established between the EU members

3. the break up of national monopolies and their privatisation

4. deregulation of the marketplace across Europe

5. the encouragement of free and fair competition between EU countries

1. billions of euros of EU funding over 33 years

2. a single European market established between the EU members

3. the break up of national monopolies and their privatisation

4. deregulation of the marketplace across Europe

5. the encouragement of free and fair competition between EU countries

6. unrestricted trade between EU member countries using common rules

6. unrestricted trade between EU member countries using common rules

7. a large and growing market of consumers as the EU enlarged and more countries joined

6. unrestricted trade between EU member countries using common rules

7. a large and growing market of consumers as the EU enlarged and more countries joined

8. low corporate taxes introduced within Ireland (12.5%)

6. unrestricted trade between EU member countries using common rules

7. a large and growing market of consumers as the EU enlarged and more countries joined

8. low corporate taxes introduced within Ireland (12.5%)

9. a stable Irish political system

6. unrestricted trade between EU member countries using common rules

7. a large and growing market of consumers as the EU enlarged and more countries joined

8. low corporate taxes introduced within Ireland (12.5%)

9. a stable Irish political system

10. a young educated English mother-tongue population

6. unrestricted trade between EU member countries using common rules

7. a large and growing market of consumers as the EU enlarged and more countries joined

8. low corporate taxes introduced within Ireland (12.5%)

9. a stable Irish political system

10. a young educated English mother-tongue population

11. high levels of Foreign Direct Investment flowing into Ireland

Ireland in 2008

(ESRI Q.EC Commentary)

Ireland in 2008

GDP growth expected to stall, or fall slightly

(ESRI Q.EC Commentary)

Ireland in 2008

GDP growth expected to stall, or fall slightly

Consumption growth of 1%

(ESRI Q.EC Commentary)

Ireland in 2008

GDP growth expected to stall, or fall slightly

Consumption growth of 1%

15% decline in investment

(ESRI Q.EC Commentary)

Ireland in 2008

GDP growth expected to stall, or fall slightly

Consumption growth of 1%

15% decline in investment

CPI expected to average 4% in 2008

(ESRI Q.EC Commentary)

Ireland in 2009

Ireland in 2009

GDP growth stagnant

Ireland in 2009

GDP growth stagnant

Consumption recovery, tax increases

Ireland in 2009

GDP growth stagnant

Consumption recovery, tax increases

2nd Budget by June 2009

Ireland in 2009

GDP growth stagnant

Consumption recovery, tax increases

2nd Budget by June 2009

Property crash continues

Ireland in 2050

Ireland in the EU?

GDP Growth @ 2% to 2050 Implies GDP per capita of 70,000 Euros per annum

Investment/Climate Change/Fertility/Technology

2/3 Exam

Exam2.5 Hours

10 Short Qs

4qs, Longer, do 3. (I’ll take your best 3)

Points inside qs determine time allotted.

3/3. Recap

History

History

EMU/OCA

History

EMU/OCA CAP

History

EMU/OCA CAP

Competition

History

EMU/OCA CAP

Competition Inequality

History

EMU/OCA CAP

Competition Inequality

Enlargement

History

EMU/OCA CAP

Competition Inequality

Enlargement Globalisation

History

EMU/OCA CAP

Competition Inequality

Enlargement Globalisation

EU & Ireland

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EC4333 Lecture

11Ireland and the EU | Recap

Dr. S. Kinsella | stephenkinsella.net