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Economic Development and
Diversification; A Case of
Azerbaijan
CESD
September 2017
Content
- Oil boom vs. post-oil period
- Assessment of the oil boom period
- Rooms for diversification in the post-oil period
- Diversification reforms; done and should be
SOFAZ’s Revenues (billion USD)
16.31
19.8
17.41 17.33
16.23
7.67
5.88
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
TRANSFERS TO THE STATE BUDGET
7.39
11.39
12.67
14.55
11.97
7.92
4.76
5.915
9
9.905
11.35
9.337
8.13
7.615
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Billion USD Billion manat
SHARE OF OIL MONEYTRANSFERS IN
THE REVENUES OF STATE BUDGET, %
51.90%57.30% 57.30% 58.20%
50.70%
66.50%63.50%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ASSETS OF SOFAZ
22.7729.8
34.13 35.88 37.1 33.57 33.15
43.0345.18
48.98 48.0449.31
63.38
87.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Billion USD Assets to GDP,%
GDP OF AZERBAİJAN
52.909
65.95269.683
74.164 75.234
52.97
37.84
42.46
52.0854.74
58.18 59.01
54.38
60.39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Billion USD Billion manat
EXCHANGE RATE OF USD/Manat
0.80.79 0.78 0.78
0.78
1.026
1.6
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
USD/Manat
Money Supply (billion manat)11743.6 11541.9
9109.9
5786.9
7860.57277.5 7788.7
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
31,08,2014 31,12,2014 31,02,2015 31,01,2016 31,12,2016 31,03,2017 31,05,2017
Foreign exchange reserves of the CBA15193.4
13758.3
5016.73974.4 4432.7 4825.4
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
31,07,2014 31,12,2014 30,12,2015 30,12,2016 31,03,2017 31,05,2017
Million USD
THE REVENUES OF STATE BUDGET
14.25
19.87
22.16
2523.47
17.05
10.94
11.4
15.7
17.3
19.518.4
17.5
17.51
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Billion USD Billion manat
THE EXPENDITURES OF STATE
BUDGET
14.7
19.5
22.33
24.5423.88
17.33
11.1
11.77
15.4
17.4219.14
18.7117.78
17.75
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Billion USD Billion manat
Oil Boom
Mono-culture export country; more 95.0 of total export was oil and oil
products
Strong local currency
Import dependency
Subsidized economic growth
Post-Oil Period
• Fiscal consolidation
• Less public spending
• From supply economy to demand economy
• Less strong local currency
• More market based reforms
Conclusion
• From oil boom to post oil period
• Economic transformation to new oil price
• Less public spending, more initiatives
• More chances for diversification
Thank you
www.cesd.az
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