economic growth in the information age by dale w. jorgenson harvard university saturday, october 12,...
Post on 12-Jan-2016
221 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Economic Growth in the Information Age
By
Dale W. Jorgenson
Harvard University
Saturday, October 12, 2002
Economic Growth in the Information Age
INTRODUCTION:
Prices of Information Technology
THE INFORMATION AGE:
Faster, Better, Cheaper!
ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY:
IT Prices and the Cost of Capital
AMERICAN GROWTH RESURGENCE:
IT Investment and Productivity Growth
ECONOMICS ON INTERNET TIME:
The New Research Agenda
THE INFORMATION AGE:Faster, Better, Cheaper!
MOORE'S LAW: The number of transistors on a chip doubles every 18-24 months(Pentium 4, released November 20,2000, has 42 million transistors).
MOORE (1998): "If the automobile industry advanced as rapidly as the semiconductor industry, a Rolls Royce would get half a million miles per gallon, and it would be cheaper to throw it away than to park it."
INVENTION OF THE TRANSISTOR:
Development of Semiconductor Technology.
THE INTEGRATED CIRCUIT:
Memory Chips; Logic Chips.
Transistor Density on Micro Processors and Memory Chips
HOLDING QUALITY CONSTANTMatched Models and Hedonics
SOFTWARE:
Prepackaged, Custom, and Own-Account.
SEMICONDUCTOR PRICE INDEXES:
Memory and Logic Chips.
COMPUTER PRICE INDEXES:
The BEA-IBM Collaboration.
COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT:
Terminal, Switching, and Transmission.
Relative Prices of Computers and Semiconductors, 1977-2000
0
0
1
10
100
1,000
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997
Log
Scal
e (1
996=
1)
Computers Memory Logic
All price indexes are divided by the output price index .
95 97 99 02 05 08 11
1994 NTRS
1997 NTRS
1998 / 1999 ITRS
M
inim
um
Fe
atu
re S
ize
(n
m)
(D
RA
M H
alf
Pit
ch
)
500
350
250
180
130
100
70
50
35
25 95 97 99 02 05 08 11
92
92
1992 NTRS
2000 Plan
International SEMATECH
Area for Future Acceleration
Semiconductor Roadmap Acceleration
0
1
10
100
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997
Log
Scal
e (1
996=
1)
Computers Central Off ice Sw itching Equipment Prepackaged Softw are
All price indexes are divided by the output price index.
Relative Prices of Computers, Communications, and Software, 1977-2000
0
1
10
100
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997
Log S
cale
(199
6=1
)
Computers Communications Semiconductors Software Services
Relative Prices of Computers, Communications, Software, and Services, 1977-2000 All price indexes are divided by the output price index.
ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY:IT Prices and the Growth of Output.
OUTPUT CONTRIBUTION BY TYPE:
Computers, Communications Equipment, Semiconductors, Software, and IT Services.
OUTPUT SHARES OF IT:
Computers, Communications Equipment, Semiconductors, Software, and IT Services.
OUTPUT CONTRIBUTION OF IT:
IT versus Non-IT Value Added.
Value Added Shares of Information Technology by Type, 1977-2000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997
%
Computers Communications Semiconductors Softw are Services Total
Share of current dollar gross domestic product.
Industry Contributions to Value Added Growth
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1977-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000
An
nu
al C
on
trib
uti
on
(%
)
Computers Communications Semiconductors Software ServicesNote: Services is the capital service f low from Household and Government IT capital.
Domar-w eighted contrubtions of industry value added
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1977-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000
Annu
al C
ontri
butio
n (%
)
Non IT IT
Industry Contribution to Value Added
Average annual percentage growth rates, weighted by the value share.
Industry Contributions to Value Added Growth, 1977-2000
-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Oil and Gas MiningGas
Petroleum RefiningMachinery excl. Computers
Non Energy MiningPrimary Metal
Coal MiningStone, Clay, Glass
Motor VehiclesInsurance
Other Electrical MachTextiles, Apparel, Leather
ConstructionEducation, private
PaperOther Transportation Equipment
Fabricated MetalLumber, Wood, Furniture
LegalPrinting and Publishing
ChemicalsCommunications Equipment
Instruments and Miscellaneous Mfg.Government Enterprises
ElectricityRubber and PlasticFood and Tobacco
TransportationGovernment Education
Computer ServicesCommunications
AgricultureOther ServicesHealth private
Government excl. EducationBusiness Svc excl. Computer
Electronic ComponentsReal Estate (rental)
Retail and EatingComputers and Office Equipment
Professional and Social Svcs.Finance
Wholesale TradeHousehold
ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY:IT Prices, Investment, and Productivity.
CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION BY TYPE:
Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software.
INPUT SHARES OF IT:
Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software.
CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION:
IT versus Non-IT Capital Services.
Capital Input Contribution of Information Technology
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1977-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000
Ann
ual C
ontr
ibut
ion
(%)
Non-IT Capital Services IT Capital Services
Average annual percentage growth rates, weighted by income shares.
-0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45
Coal MiningNon energy MiningPetroleum RefiningEducation, private
AgriculturePrimary Metal
Lumber, Wood, FurnitureTextiles, Apparel, Leather
PaperStone, Clay, Glass
Rubber and PlasticMotor Vehicles
Other Electrical MachComputers and Office
Fabricated MetalGas
ConstructionOther Transportation
Food and TobaccoCommunications Equipment
Oil and Gas MiningGovernment Education
Electronic ComponentsChemicals
LegalInstruments and
ElectricityOther ServicesHealth private
TransportationGovernment EnterprisesPrinting and Publishing
Machinery excl. ComputersInsurance
Real Estate (rental)Retail and Eating
Computer ServicesGovernment excl. Education
CommunicationsProfessional and Social SvcsBusiness Svc excl. Computer
Wholesale TradeFinance
Household
IT Capital Non-IT Capital
Industry Contributions to Capital Input Growth, 1977-2000
Note: Industries sorted by IT capital contribution.
Capital Input Contribution of Information Technology by Country
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
90-95 95-1999 90-95 95-2000 90-95 95-1999 90-95 95-2000 90-95 95-2000 90-95 95-1999 90-95 95-1999 90-95 95-2000 90-95 95-2000
Australia Canada Finland France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States
Annu
al C
ontri
butio
n (%
)
Non-IT ICT
AMERICAN GROWTH RESURGENCE: IT Investment and Productivity Growth.
AVERAGE LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH:
Capital Deepening, Labor Quality, TFP.
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY:
IT-Production versus Non-IT Production.
SOURCES OF U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH:
Capital Input, Labor Input, and TFP.
Sources of U.S. TFP Growth
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1977-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000
Annu
al A
vera
ge C
ontri
butio
n(%
)
Reallocation of Non-college Educated Labor Reallocation of College Educated Labor Reallocation of Non-IT Capital
Reallocation of IT Capital Wgt Sectoral TFP (Other) Wgt Sectoral TFP (IT Producers)
Industry Contributions to Productivity, 1977-2000
-0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20
ConstructionHealth private
Oil and Gas MiningInsurance
GasProfessional and Social Svcs
Machinery excl. ComputersLegal
Business Svc excl. ComputerPrinting and Publishing
Petroleum RefiningEducation, private
Computer ServicesChemicals
Motor VehiclesHousehold
Government excl. EducationGovernment Education
Other ServicesGovernment Enterprises
CommunicationsNon energy Mining
PaperStone, Clay, Glass
ElectricityLumber, Wood, Furniture
TransportationOther Transportation Equipment
Fabricated MetalRetail and Eating
Instruments and Miscellaneous Manuf.Communications Equipment
Coal MiningOther Electrical Mach
Primary MetalReal Estate (rental)Rubber and Plastic
Textiles, Apparel, LeatherFood and Tobacco
FinanceAgriculture
Wholesale TradeElectronic Components
Computers and Office Equipment
Note: Industries sorted by productivity contribution.
Sources of U.S. Economic Growth
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1977-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000
Aver
age
Annu
al C
ontri
butio
n (%
)
Non-college Educated Labor College Educated Labor Non-IT Capital IT Capital TFP
Sources of Growth in Industry Output, 1977-2000
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Government EducationGovernment excl. Education
HouseholdGovernment Enterprises
Other ServicesProfessional and Social Svcs.
Education, privateLegal
Health privateBusiness Svc excl. Computer
Computer ServicesReal Estate (rental)
InsuranceFinance
Retail and EatingWholesale Trade
GasElectricity
CommunicationsTransportation
Rubber and PlasticPetroleum Refining
ChemicalsPrinting and Publishing
PaperTextiles, Apparel, Leather
Food and TobaccoInstruments and MiscellaneousOther Transportation Equipment
Motor VehiclesElectronic Components
Communications EquipmentOther Electrical Mach
Computers and OfficeMachinery excl. Computers
Fabricated MetalPrimary Metal
Stone, Clay, GlassLumber, Wood, Furniture
ConstructionOil and Gas Mining
Coal MiningNon Energy Mining
Agriculture
Intermediate Labor Capital Productivity
Output Growth, 1990-95 versus 1995-2000
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Australia Canada Finland France Germany Italy Japan UnitedKingdom
United States
%
1990-95 1995-2000Note: Latest available output growth is 1995-1999 for Finland, Italy, and Japan.
Sources of U.S. Labor Productivity Growth
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1977-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000
Ave
rage
Ann
ual C
ontr
ibut
ion
(%)
Labor Quality Non-IT Capital Deepening IT Capital Deepening TFP
Sources of Industry Labor Productivity Growth, 1977-2000
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Government EducationGovernment excl. Education
HouseholdGovernment Enterprises
Other ServicesProfessional and Social Svcs.
Education, privateLegal
Health privateBusiness Svc excl. Computer
Computer ServicesReal Estate (rental)
InsuranceFinance
Retail and EatingWholesale Trade
GasElectricity
CommunicationsTransportation
Rubber and PlasticPetroleum Refining
ChemicalsPrinting and Publishing
PaperTextiles, Apparel, Leather
Food and TobaccoInstruments and MiscellaneousOther Transportation Equipment
Motor VehiclesElectronic Components
Communications EquipmentOther Electrical Mach
Computers and OfficeMachinery excl. Computers
Fabricated MetalPrimary Metal
Stone, Clay, GlassLumber, Wood, Furniture
ConstructionOil and Gas Mining
Coal MiningNon Energy Mining
Agriculture
Capital Deepening Intermediate Deepening Labor Quality Productivity
ECONOMICS ON INTERNET TIME: The New Research Agenda.
• Modeling IT and the semiconductor industry: permanent versus transitory contributions to economic growth.
•The Solow Paradox -- we see computers everywhere but in the productivity statistics -- versus the Information Age.
•Equity Valuations and Growth Prospects: accumulation of intangible assets versus irrational exuberance.
•Widening Wage Inequality:capital-skill complementarity versus skill-biased technical change.
top related