eficas nudp/ca meeting luangprabang,...50,600 ha covering: kham and nonghet districts spot imagery...
Post on 07-Mar-2021
0 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
1
Agrarian and land use transitions in maize production areasof Sayaboury and Xieng Khouang Provinces
EFICAS‐NUDP/CA MeetingLuang Prabang , 27/03/2017
Outline
• Surveys and datasets used to assess livelihood and land use changes
• Key results‐ Maize boom (and bust?)
‐ Land use and land cover changes
‐ Livelihood trajectories
• Putting the pieces together
• Conclusion
2
Surveys and datasets
Sayaboury Province Xieng Khouang ProvinceSocioeconomic surveys
Livelihood and farming system data:Demographics, housing and equipment, incomes, on‐farm and off‐farm activities, etc.
21 villagesIn Boten, Kenthao, Paklay and Thongmixay districts
8 villagesIn Kham and Nonghet districts
2000+ sample households in 2005‐2008630 sample households in 2014
240 sample households in 2009 & 2016
Remote sensing
Supervised classification of land use/cover in 9 classes:Paddy field, upland crops, fallow, shrub, open forest, dense forest, water, settlement, cloud
242,729 haCovering: Boten, Kenthao and Paklay districts
50,600 haCovering: Kham and Nonghet districts
SPOT imagery (6m) Landsat imagery (30m)
The maize boom in the two study areas
• The maize boom (and bust?)
‐ Booming production in 2003 in Sayaboury; 2005‐2006 in XiengKhouang
‐ Clear production drop observed in Sayaboury since 2010 ‐> shift towards cassava and alternative crops after a decade of maize predominance
• A key driver for landscape and livelihood changes...
Maize production in Sayaboury and Xieng Khouang (1995‐2014)
Boom
Bust?
3
Land use / land cover changes
Kham & Nonghet districts, Xieng KhouangBoten, Kenthao & Paklay districts, Sayaboury
2002 2006
2010 2015[0] Unclassified
[1] Paddy field
[2] Upland crop
[3] Shrub
[4] Fallow
[5] Open/mixed forest
[6] Dense forest
[7] Water
[8] settlement
[9] Cloud
Dense and open forests have been cleared (over 30,000ha) and converted mainly into upland crops (96%)
At the exception of a few spots of forest regrowth, deforestation has generally been very high in both study areas
Decreasing forest
Increasing forest
Land use / land cover changes
Sayaboury 2009‐2016 Xieng Khouang 2002‐2015
• Changes in forest cover in the study areas
4
Paddy fields have expanded very significantly (over 7,000 ha) following conversion of upland crop areas, fallow land and open forests
In Kham district, important surface areas of paddy have been lost to other land uses along the road network (impacts of urban expansion in Kham district centre)
Decreasing paddy
Increasing paddy
Land use / land cover changes
Sayaboury 2009‐2016 Xieng Khouang 2002‐2015
• Changes in paddy field cover in the study areas
Land use trajectories
Mean area of upland crops per household in Boten district (2005‐2014)
Mean area of upland crops per household in Kenthao district (2005‐2014)
Mean area of upland crops per household in Paklay district (2005‐2014)
Mean area of upland crops per household in Thongmixay district (2005‐2014)
Mean area of upland crops per household in Kham district (2005‐2015)
Mean area of upland crops per household in Nonghet district (2005‐2014)
• Agricultural expansion, land saturation and crop diversification
‐ After a rapid expansion, agricultural land use by households appears to reach a saturation point – a slight contraction is even observed in Kenthao and Kham districts
‐ In areas long engaged in maize production, land saturation is accompanied by a crop diversification process
5
Livelihood trajectories
• Major changes in the household economy
‐ Household incomes increased rapidly in areas recently engaged in the maize boom – e.g. Thongmixay and Nonghet districts
‐ In contrast, agricultural incomes decreased in areas long engaged in maize production
‐ A clear livelihood diversification pattern can be observed in all study areas ‐> off‐farm + livestock raising
Mean household income per source in Boten district (2004‐2013)
Mean household income per source in Kenthao district (2004‐2013)
Mean household income per source in Paklay district (2004‐2013)
Mean household income per source in Thongmixay district (2004‐2013)
Mean household income per source in Kham district (2009‐2015)
Mean household income per source in Nonghet district (2009‐2015)
Livelihood trajectories• Mitigated impacts of the maize boom on poverty
‐ Poverty decreased strongly in areas recently engaged in the maize boom – e.g. Thongmixay and Nonghet districts
‐ In the medium term, areas long engaged in maize production display alarming increases in poverty headcount – e.g. Kenthao and Paklay districts, some villages in Kham district
Poverty headcount in Sayaboury(2004‐2013)
Poverty headcount in Xieng Khouang(2009‐2015)
!
!!
!
6
Putting the pieces together (work in progress...)
Two examples
1. Drop in farming and forest regrowth in Kenthao district, Sayaboury
2. Paddy expansion in Boten district, Sayaboury
1. Drop in farming in Kenthao district
• Significant forest regrowth (green pixels) along Road No. 4, around Houayped, Houaylod villages
• Driven by livelihood diversification (off‐farm jobs)Average household incomes and sources in Houaylod, Houayped (THB per year, 2004‐2013)
Strong increase inoff‐farm incomes
Strong decrease inagricultural incomes
7
1. Drop in farming in Kenthao district
• Significant forest regrowth (green pixels) along Road No. 4, around Houayped, Houaylod villages
• Driven by land sales (conversion to fallow/pastureland)
Land sales recorded between 2010‐2014
% of families having sold some land
Mean land area sold (ha/family)
Houayped 10% 2.54
Houaylod 10% 1.15
According to Houayped authorities:“Many villagers sold some land in the past few years. Around 10 families sold 17ha in 2015 and 20 families sold 30ha in 2014.”
According to Houaylod authorities:“Since 2013, around 80ha of the village land has been sold by villagers to wealthy traders who have developed fallow pastureland for cattle farming.”
2. Paddy expansion in Boten district
• Significant paddy development (yellow pixels) around Nongphakbong, Thanang villages
• Driven by reinvestment of cash incomes from upland crops into terracing of new paddy land
Average paddy land cultivated(hectares per household, 2005‐2014)
2005 2008 2014
Nongphakbong 0,73 0,70 0,93
Thanang 0,67 0,79 1,01
Average household incomes(THB/year, 2004‐2013)
2004 2008 2013
Nongphakbong 36 920 78 007 139 122
Thanang 27 100 68 773 128 867
8
Conclusion
• After a decade of agricultural expansion driven by a boom in maize production in the 2000s...
• ... We are still observing major changes in the landscapes and livelihoods of southern Sayaboury and northeastern Xieng Khouang Provinces:
‐ Continued conversion of open and dense forest for agriculture in remote areas
‐ Rapid crop / livelihood diversification in areas long engaged in maize production
‐ Terracing of new paddy fields fuelled by a reinvestment of cash incomes from maize
‐ Forest regeneration where people engage in off‐farm activities / sell their land
Conclusion
• Some trajectories of change are clearly a cause of concern...
Land use diversificationincl. paddy expansion
Shift to off‐farm
Forest re‐growth
(Up)land regeneration
• Other observed trajectories constitute positive avenues to be built upon for more sustainable livelihoods and landscapes
Agricultural expansion
Forest conversion
Land saturation
Land use intensification
(Up)land degradation Poverty
top related