egg market evolution in the mediterranean basin

Egg Market Evolution in the Mediterranean

BasinDr. Thomas Elam, President, FarmEcon LLC

Data sources:

• Egg production statistics are from FAO ProdStat database• Population data to 2050 are from UN population studies• GDP statistics are from World Bank, World Development Indicators

database• U.S. egg feed costs are from USDA feed ingredient prices, FarmEcon

costing formula• All data projections except population are from FarmEcon LLC

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Projected Per Capita Production, Total Meat/Poultry, Milk and Eggs

Eggs Meat + Poultry Milk

Meeting Growing Global Food Demand• Most significant long run challenge facing food producers• World’s population projected to hit about 9 billion by 2050• Increasing incomes: demand for animal-based products increases faster than population.• Recent global egg production growth averaged about 2.2% per annum• 2014-2050 conservative 2% average per annum egg demand growth• Need about 100 million tons of egg production to meet potential 2050 demand• Meeting potential demand, while producing a safe, environmentally responsible, welfare

friendly egg supply is going to be a major challenge• Up to the people in this room, and others like you around the world, to make it possible. • Opportunities to bring hen productivity up in middle income areas of the world• Doing so would go a long way toward meeting increasing food demand with minimal

environmental impact.

Element (UOM) Agricultural Item (UOM)2013-2050

CAGRProduction (per cap) Eggs 1.13%Production (per cap) Total Meat 0.81%Production (per cap) Milk 0.93%

Population Population 0.81%

Production (tonnes) Eggs 1.95%Production (tonnes) Total Meat 1.63%Production (tonnes) Milk 1.75%

Coarse Grains Area harvested (Mill Ha) -0.25%Coarse Grains Yield (MT/Ha) 1.09%Coarse Grains Production (Mill MT) 0.83%

Oilcrops Area harvested (Mill Ha) 1.08%Oilcrops Yield (MT/Ha) 1.34%Oilcrops Production (Mill MT) 2.43%

Total Feed Crops Area harvested (Mill Ha) 0.45%

Mediterranean Egg Industry Prospects

The Global Scenario

Today $0.38

Meeting Growing Global Food Demand• Global egg sector is a dynamic, growing, food source• Per capita consumption benefiting from income growth, especially in Asia and

Africa. • The Mediterranean Basin region is sharing in this growth• But compared to the global industry not fully benefiting from income growth• Within the region a very wide range of economic and political situations,

production systems, demand growth, and regulatory regimes• Yet, many common issues facing egg producers across the entire area• Hen productivity in many low productivity countries are a major opportunity

to meet 2050 potential demand with minimal increase in hen numbers • Increased hen productivity would also effectively address many of the other

major issues identified above.