eimear hennessy, business unit director - nielsen
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Eimear HennessyBusiness Unit Director,Nielsen Ireland
THE THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES AT PLAY FOR OUR FAVOURITE BRANDS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE & € SPEND
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO RISE
Q4 2012
65Q4 2013
77Q4 2014
90
IRE Consumer Confidence IndexQ4 2012
18%Q4 2013
26%Q4 2014
46%
Job Prospects - Excellent/Good
Q4 2012
27%Q4 2013
40%Q4 2014
45%
Personal Finances - Excellent/Good
Q4 2012
26%Q4 2013
29%Q4 2014
37%
Readiness to Spend- Excellent/Good
Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey Ireland Q4 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015
Q4 2015
99
Q4 2015
56%
Q4 2014
53%
Q4 2015
53%
Burden of financial constraints now improving for the majority.
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CHANGING CONCERNS FOR IRISH CONSUMERSIncreasing Utility Bills remains unchanged illustrating the burden that consumers feel in this area but the biggest change is around Health and Work/Life Balance (pre recession concerns)
Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey, Ireland
8%
13%
14%
11%
8%
8%
13%
15%
5%
14%
20%
5%
Increasing Utility Bills
Job Security
Health
Debt
Economy
Work Life Balance
Q4 2015 Q4 2012
Q7a. What is your biggest concern over the next six months?
2015Consumer Confidence
Index
99
2012Consumer Confidence
65
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2015 MAT vs LY
TOTAL FMCG MARKET WORTH €15.5BNVOLUME-LED GROWTH
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner , Total Market Read| MAT to Dec 2015
+0.5%
+0.4%
+0.9%
+3.2%
0%
+3.2%
Volume
Price
Value
Nov/Dec 2015 vs LY
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STEADY VOLUME GROWTH OVER 2015Optimistic signs ahead for 2016 in terms of Volume but still significant price resistance.
-1.5
-0.1
0.0
0.9
2.2
3.2
-2.7
-1.0
-0.5
0.4
2.1
3.2
Jan/Feb 2015 Mar/Apr 2015 May/Jun 2015 July/Aug 2015 Sep/Oct 2015 Nov/Dec 2015
VALUE UNITS
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner , Total Market Read| Bi-Monthly YoY Performance up to Dec 2015
Total FMCG Value and Unit Growth
CHANNELPERFORMANCE
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8Strategic Planner | MAT to Dec 2015 | Scantrack/Market Track incl Discounters & Dunnes| VALUE
MAT to Dec 2015
+0.9%
DISCOUNTERS AND CONVENIENCE WINNING AT THE EXPENSE OF THE MULTIPLES
46.1%
36.2%
17.7%
MULTIPLES + DUNNES
CONVENIENCE
DISCOUNTERS
-1.5%
+7.4%
+1.1%
Nov-Dec 2015
+3.2%
48.7%
34.1%
17.2%
MULTIPLES + DUNNES
CONVENIENCE
DISCOUNTERS
+1.6%
+10%
+2.2%
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DISCOUNTERS STILL CONTINUING TO INVEST IN NEW STORE OPENINGS.Turnover now approaching €2.7 billion
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
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20
04
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06
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20
15
263 Stores6% Growth
Nielsen Data Science - Discounter Store Numbers 1999 - 2015
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6.5 6.1 5.74.1 4.4
1.3
6.0 6.24.2
3.5 2.0
1.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
LIDL ALDI TESCO SUPERVALU DUNNES MARKS & SPENCER
Press TV
LIDL & ALDI MAKING UP 48% OFADVERTISING SPEND AND GROWING.
Supermarket Adspend FY 2015
+13% +6%
+5%
-13%
+8%
+35%
Lidl24%
Aldi24%Tesco
19%
SV15%
Dunnes12%
M&S6%
SHARE OF
SPEND
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix – Full Year 2015/ Includes TV (ROI Channels) and National Newspapers
FMCG based on Defined set including Food, Drink, Health & Beauty, Household, Tobaccco & Accessories / Retailers includes large Supermarkets & Discounters
€m
-5%
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11Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner Total Market Read Data to December 2015
55 50 47 46 44
4336 36 36 35
214 17 18 21
2006 2013 2014 2015 2020
FMCG Trended Channel Share
MULTIPLES & DUNNES CONVENIENCE DISCOUNTERS
DISCOUNTERS REMAIN ON TRACK TO REACH 21% SHARE IN NEXT 5 YEARS
CATEGORY & BRAND GROWTH
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VALUE GROWTH IN ALL CATEGORIESPrice deflation drives volume growth ahead of value growth.
VALUE UNITS PRICE
BIMONTH VALUE €M BIMONTH % CHG BIMONTH % CHG BIMONTH % CHG
GROCERY €464 +2.7 +4.5 -1.7
CONFECTIONERY €423 +4.3 +2.4 +1.9
ALCOHOL €407 +2.5 +3.5 -0.9
TOBACCO & SUNDRIES €263 +4.2 -1.3 +5.6
HOUSEHOLD €104 +1.9 +3.7 -1.7
BAKERY €93 +2.0 +2.1 -0.1
HEALTH & BEAUTY €79 +4.0 +6.1 -2.0
FROZEN FOOD €56 +1.6 +3.2 -1.6
Total value +3.2% Total units +3.2%
Strategic Planner | MAT to Dec 2015 | Scantrack/Market Track incl Discounters & Dunnes| VALUE
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WHICH CATEGORIES DELIVERED THE MOST ADDITIONAL SALES?
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner Total Market Data MAT DEC 2015
22.8
12.2
11.2
9.5
7.9
7.1
6.9
5.5
4.6
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.2
CONFECTIONERY
MINERAL WATERS
TABLE WINES
CRISPS/SNACKS/TUBES
NUTS
INSTANT/GROUND COFFEE
SPECIAL DIETARY PRODUCTS
SPARKLING WINES
PETFOOD
WHISKEY
DETERGENTS
GRANOLA BARS
TOILET TISSUES
RTD FLAV MILK & SHAKES
CHEESE
PACKED SALADS
CAKES
YOGHURT, FROMAGE FRAIS AND YOGHURT
BUTTER/SPREADABLE BUTTER
NUT BUTTERS
Incremental Value €'m
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TOP 20 BRAND WINNERS IN 2015These brand winners are using two to four of the levers for success.
MF MALTESERS
MONSTER
CADBURY BOOST
COCA COLA LIFE
PRINGLES
EXTRA
BUDWEISER
VIT HIT
INNOCENT
BALLYGOWAN
ALPRO
CADBURY DAIRY MILK
MOOJU
GUINNESS
KINDER
CARROLL MEATS
CARLSBERG
NICKY
ORCHARD THIEVES
€1.8m€1.8m
€2.2m€2.3m€2.3m€2.3m€2.3m
€2.7m€2.7m€2.8m€2.8m
€3.1m€3.2m€3.2m€3.3m
€4.6m€4.8m€4.8m
€5.2m
Source: Nielsen Scantrack including Discounters – Data up to the 27th Dec 2015
BRAND LEVERS FOR GROWTH
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WHICH BUTTON DO YOU ACTIVATE?As brand owners are we challenging our investments wisely enough?
AVAILABILITY
It is no longer good enough to get listings. Brand owners need to assess the quality of
that distribution.
PROMOTIONS
Ever increasing promotions on
offer but as brands owners
have we measured
their profitability?
ADVERTISING
FMCG Brand owners have
increased their advertising
spend but have they evaluated the reaction it has generated?
INNOVATION
Long term sustainable
growth requires brand innovation but only 10% are deemed as
truly successful.
Retail reality
1
8
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THE QUALITY OF YOUR DISTRIBUTION COUNTSTo get products in front of consumers can be a big ask but also with big € returns.
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TOTAL MARKET
+9% +4%
RETAILER SPEND
+11%
FMCG SPEND
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix – Full Year 2015/ Includes TV (ROI Channels) and National Newspapers
FMCG based on Defined set including Food, Drink, Cosmetics & Toiletries, Household, Petcare & Tobaccco & Accessories
Retailers includes large Supermarkets & Discounters
MANUFACTURERS SPENDING HEAVILY WITH RETAILERS REMAINING STEADY
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REACTIONHow did it change their behavior?
RESONANCEDid it positively change their opinions?
REACHWho saw the campaign/content?
MEASURE CAMPAIGN EFFECTIVENESS BY FOLLOWING THE CONSUMER
PAID – OWNED - EARNED
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A THIRD OF MULTIPLES VALUE IS SOLD ON DEAL VARYING BY SECTOR
Source: Nielsen Multiples Data Week Ending 27th Dec 2015
33.2 33.537.2 36.8 38.6 38.3 38.6 38.8
MAT YA MAT TY 12 WEEKSYA
LATEST 12WEEKS
8 WEEKSYA
LATEST 8WEEKS
4 WEEKSYA
LATEST 4WEEKS
Total FMCG - Value % On Deal
38.836.1
29.032.0 33.0
36.0
23.6
ALCOHOL CONFECTIONERY GROCERY HEALTH &BEAUTY
HOUSEHOLD FROZEN FOOD BAKERY
Product Class Value % On DealMAT TY
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DAIRY
75%
MEAT
62%
FRO
ZEN
FO
OD
S
66
%
GEN
ERA
L M
ERC
HA
ND
ISE
60
%
HO
USE
HO
LDC
AR
E
56
%GROCERY
73%
PER
SON
AL
50
%
BAKERY
73%
PET CARE
66%
HEALTH
59%
BEAUTY CARE
50%
PRODUCE
74%
DELI
72%
70-75%65-69%60-64%55-59%50-54%
% OF WEEKS THAT DON’T BREAK EVEN
ON AVERAGE, 67% OF PROMOTIONS DON’T MAKE MONEY.
Trade promotion effectiveness varies from across departments
Source: Nielsen Trade Promotion Landscape Analysis 2014 Q3
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SOME RECENT EXAMPLES OF SUCCESSFUL NPDBy our Favourite Brands offering new Consumer Occasions/Experiences/Packaging
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BUT MOST PRODUCTS HAVE A SHORT LIFELess than 3 out of 10 items survive their first year
Source: Nielsen Innovation Analysis, across France, UK, Italy, Spain
% of new itemswith store sales 100% 55% 24%
LAUNCH
Week 1 Week 26 Week 52
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>75%
Success rate with Nielsen Factors for SuccessTM
All New Products
10%
INCREASING THE ODDS OF SUCCESS
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AT NIELSEN WE CHALLENGE TO CREATE SUCCESS.As brand owners are we challenging our investments wisely enough.
AVAILABILITY
Store Testing allows you to
make informed choices before making a full investment.
PROMOTION
Have you measured how efficiently your
promotions are working
for you? Knowing your profitability allows for
greater agility.
ADVERTISING
Do we continue with
the same media
campaigns or start afresh?
Measure your return on
investment before making that decision.
INNOVATION
Successful innovation is neither luck nor magic there is a
logical framework to
follow to increase your success rate.
THANK YOU
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