election campaign planning-research and targeting

Campaign Planning: Research & Targeting Basics

www.KarakoyunStrategies.com

Elections are about the future, not the past

Voters want to know what you will do to make their lives better. The election is about voters.

It is not about the candidate, the party, the European Union.

The Essence of Every Campaign

Math• Determine how many votes to win

Targeting

• Determine where those votes will come from

Voter contact

• Persuade that many voters to vote for you and ensure that many supporters vote

Four Strategic Choices to Winning

Mobilize voters

Persuade undecide

d

Change the

electorate

Do some combinati

on

CAMPAIGN PLAN:

A campaign plan is a written document that contains all of the strategies, tactics and activities that will drive your campaign.

A campaign plan defines the priorities of your campaign and outlines why, what, how and when you are doing things, and what those things will cost.

Roadmap to Success

A Good Plan:

Written Flexible Explainable Takes nothing for granted and includes the

obvious Based on research Has clear goals and objectives Links targets + message + voter contact Has a timeline, clear responsibilities and a

budget

If it’s not WRITTEN DOWN, the plan does not exist.

Golden Rule

1) Research & Vote Goals 2) Campaign Message 3) Communications Strategy 4) Message testing5) Finance plan6) Turnout and election monitoring

Campaign Plan in 6 Steps

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Research & Targeting The Building Blocks of Your Strategy

Prepare: Research Leads to InformationKnow the candidate

Who are they, why are they running?

Who do they represent ?External Environment

Who are the voters? What are the “hot”

issues/problems?What is your local political

environment? Know Your District's Election History

Get into Your Opponents Shoes

Information Builds a StrategyDetermine a vote goal

Path to victory

Set the other goals you hope to achieve Path to long term success

Build a strategy to attain your goal(s)

Identify your targets

How many votes do I need to win?

Different math, same concept

Proportional Representation makes votes to win calculation more complicated

But the tactics are similar: Do we more efficiently increase our numbers by

trying to turnout our base or persuading undecided voters?

Are there certain geographical areas that are more receptive than others?  

Are there certain demographic groups that are more receptive?

Why Research First?

Research determines where you put your people and how you spend time & money.

Research drives your message.Research builds confidence in

your strategy.Without research, you’re just

guessing

What Should We Research?

1) Election rules

2) Characteristics of the district

3) Characteristics of the voters

4) Past elections

5) Main factors affecting this election

6) Your candidate(s)

7) Viable opponents

Targeting

Universe

of likely supporters

“Saints”

Base supporters

“Those who can be saved”

Both sides will pursue them

“Sinners”

You will never have these supporters

Questions to ask…

• Who are my main group of supporters?

• How many persuadable voters are there?• Where do they live?• How do I reach them?

• Do persuadable voters care about different issues than my supporters?

“Patterns of Life”: major employers, population centers, commuting patterns, gathering places, community events

Political landscape: Important political players, strength of other political parties, influential families, civic and business leaders; Who are your opinion leaders, your “influential 10%”

Media: Where voters get information, gathering places, religious centers, local media outlets, reporters?

Additional Research

How do voters get information?

Data is Your Friend!

Geographic: population centers, urban/rural %

Demographic: age groups, income levels, education levels, main professions, religious or ethnic backgrounds..

European Parliament Election 2014Voting Trends from 2009

2009 EP Voting Trends

The turnout was 43% Significant increase in turnout in eight countries Very little change in eight others Very sharp fall in the 11 others

Voting Behavior Slightly fewer women vote than men voted

42% compared to 44% Fewer young people than elderly people

71% of 18-24 year olds did not vote Fewer unemployed people than senior

managers Fewer early school leavers than graduates Slightly fewer city dwellers than inhabitants of

rural areas Political affiliation

59% of centre did not vote 61% of right did, 20 point difference in turnout

Attachment to the EU resulted in only a nine point difference

Walk Away

Hardest groups to mobilize: left school before the age of 16 are unpoliticised have difficulty in making ends meet

at the end of the month

Need more advance time, more resources and more targeted persuasive messaging

Decision time

When abstainers decided not to vote (of the 57%)

“Unconditio

nal

” 22% were

never g

oing to

“Considered”

33% said weeks

or months prior

“Impulsive”32% said few days before or day of Ignore them, but how to identify?

65% of drop off combined

Lack of Trust Biggest Reason Why

Recollection of a Campaign?

67% of Europeans remembered having seen a television or print media campaign encouraging them to vote.

If you want influence, start early Half of voters said they always vote the

same way. Party loyalists One-third early deciders.

If election programs begin only in the final weeks, does this influence voter choice?

Reasons for voting

Reasons directly linked to the European Union are not among the main reasons to vote, or not vote (in 2009)

Voters who turned out did so first and foremost to fulfil their duty as citizens, ahead of strictly political or European motivations.

A little under a quarter of voters said they voted to support a political party to which they felt close.

Most Motivating Issues