employment targets · 2014-06-10 · setting the context: policymakers around the world face...
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Decent Work for All ASIAN DECENT WORK DECADE 2006-2015
Kee Beom Kim Employment Specialist
ILO Bangkok November 20, 2013
Employment targets and projections, Jakarta, November 20-21, 2013
Employment targets
Outline
I. Setting the context
II. Employment targets for quantity and quality of jobs
III. Concluding thoughts
Setting the context: Policymakers around the world face increasingly complex economic and employment challenges
While economic growth has been robust in Asia and the Pacific in recent decades, more exposed to external shocks and periodic crises
Real gross domestic product, 1991-2012 (%)
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p2012p
East Asia South-East Asia & the Pacific South Asia
Source: IMF: World Economic Outlook Database, July 2012 update.
Source: World Bank (2012), PovcalNet data, supplemented by household survey data from India and publications of official statistical offices (Republic of Korea and Taipei, China))..
And (robust) growth has often not been inclusive…
Gini coefficient, earliest year in 1990s and latest year
28.9
30.0
32.1
32.8
34.2
35.6
36.5
36.7
37.0
38.9
40.0
40.3
43.0
43.4
44.4
46.2
20 25 30 35 40 45
Korea, Rep. of (1992-2010)
Pakistan (1991-2008)
Bangladesh (1992-2010)
Nepal (1996-2010)
Taipei, China (1990-2010)
Viet Nam (1993-2008)
Mongolia (1995-2008)
Lao PDR (1992-2008)
India (1993-2010)
Indonesia (1990-2011)
Thailand (1990-2009)
Sri Lanka (1991-2007)
Philippines (1991-2009)
China (1990-2008)
Cambodia (1994-2007)
Malaysia (1992-2009)
Earliest year
Latest year
Employment by economic class (millions)
Source: Kapsos and Boumpoula (2013).
And while remarkable progress has been made in reducing extreme working poverty, many are above but near the poverty line
Many countries are also faced with “jobless growth” 3,
7
3,8
3,7
3,2
3,6
3,3
3,2
3,3
3,5
3,2
3,0
3,1
3,1
3,0
3,3
3,4
3,5
3,6
3,1
3,5
3,2
3,2
3,3
3,6
3,4
3,2
3,3
3,3
3,2
3,5
3,7
3,9
4,0
3,8
4,3
4,2
3,7
3,7
3,9
3,7
3,3
3,3
3,3
3,1
3,3
172
149
125
75 8169
59 59 5647
30 25 20 16 16
184165
135
92 9273
63 61 61 5438
30 27 2221
327
290
227
157 150 145
121 114 121106
8466 59
46 40
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Indonesia: total effects on gross output and employment
Constr. Output multiplier Avg - Output multiplier Agric - Output multiplier
Constr. Employment multiplier Avg - Employment multiplier Agric - employment multipliers
Source: ILO (forthcoming).
Countries face the challenge of creating more jobs, and in Asia, where unemployment rates in remain relatively low…
Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, October 2012.
…the challenge of improving the quality of jobs, including those in “vulnerable employment”…
Share of own-account and contributing family workers (“vulnerable employment”) in total employment (%)
Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, October 2012.
…or in informal employment…
0 20 40 60 80 100
China
Thailand
Sri Lanka
Viet Nam
Philippines
Indonesia
Pakistan
India
Nepal
Total Female Male
Informal employment as a share of non-agricultural employment, most recent year (%)
Note: Indonesia includes only Banten and Yogyakarta; Sri Lanka excludes the Northern Province; China covers six urban areas. Source: ILO: Statistical update on employment in the informal economy (Geneva, June 2012); National statistical offices.
…which is often characterized by inadequate earnings, poor working conditions, with little or no social protection or protection by law
Total and youth unemployment rates (%)
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
Thailand (Q2 2012)
Macau, China (Q2 2012)
Viet Nam (2011)
Singapore (Jun 2012)
Korea, Rep. of (Sep 2012)
Japan (Aug 2012)
India (2010)
Pakistan (2011)
Marshall Islands (2011)
Australia (Sep 2012)
Taiwan, China (Aug 2012)
Hong Kong, China (Jul 2012)
New Zealand (Jun 2012)
Philippines (Jul 2012)
Sri Lanka (Q3 2011)
Indonesia (Feb 2012)
Youth Total
Note: Youth aged 15-24, except Hong Kong, China (aged 15-19); Macau, China (aged 16-24); Pakistan (aged 15-19); Singapore (Residents aged 15-29) and Viet Nam (aged 20-24). Source: National statistical offices; ILO: Key Indicators of the Labour Market, 7th Edition (Geneva, 2011).
Labour market situation particularly bleak for world’s youth
But many young people are queuing for “good quality jobs”, for which there are not enough of
4.5
2.1 2.2
1.2
2.8
1.0
15.8
1.8
16.9
1.4
18.4
1.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
15-24 25+ 15-24 25+ 15-24 25+
2010 2011 2012
(%)
Youth and adult unemployment rates in Viet Nam, by education
Never attended
Incomplete primary
Completed primary
Completed lower secondary
Completed upper secondary
Vocational training
College (technical)
University and above
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Youth unemployment rate, by education, Indonesia 2013
Source: ILO, based on national labour force surveys
While much progress has been made, gender gaps remain wide
Labour force non-participation rate by sex, 2011 (%)
Note: Data for Viet Nam and Cambodia are for 2009. Source: National statistical offices; ILO: Laborsta, Economically Active Population Estimates and Projections .
Need also to boost labour productivity, including by addressing sectoral differences in productivity
Output per worker by sector, constant 2000 US$
Source: ILO calculations based on World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2011 and national statistical offices.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Cambodia(2009)
Viet Nam(2009)
Indonesia(2010)
Philippines(2010)
Thailand(2010)
Malaysia(2009)
Agriculture
Services
Industry
Decent Work Agenda
G20: “Creating more productive and better quality jobs is at the heart of our countries’ policies aimed at achieving strong sustainable and balanced growth, poverty reduction and increasing social cohesion” (G20 Leaders ‘ Declaration, September 2013, para 25)
Post 2015 Development Agenda: “The key elements of the emerging vision
for the development agenda beyond 2015 include: …”(c) inclusive economic transformations ensuring decent jobs, backed by sustainable technologies, to shift to sustainable patterns of consumption and production;…” (Report of the Secretary-General: A life of dignity for all: accelerating progress towards the Millennium Development Goals and advancing the United Nations development agenda beyond 2015, July 2013”)
Amidst complex challenges, employment increasingly prominent in international and national policy agendas
And countries are increasingly adopting various types of employment targets, including both quantitative and qualitative…
Create five million jobs by 2020 in order to bring the
unemployment rate down from 25% to 15% (South Africa, New
Growth Path)
30,000 additional jobs in the tourism sector (Cambodia, National
Strategic Development Plan Update 2009-2013)
75% of the working-age population (20-64 years) in work (EU,
Europe 2020)
Create one million jobs with fair wages (Chile, Government
programme: For Change, future and hope Chile 2010-2015)
Annual non-agricultural private sector job growth rate over 2%
(Burkina Faso, National Employment Policy 2008)
… …as employment targeting can support policy coordination, coherence and
accountability among the many actors involved in employment creation
Indonesia National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2010-2014
Reduce unemployment rate to 5-6% at the end of 2014
Creating more jobs and reducing unemployment critical issue
But in countries with a large number of people clustered around the
poverty line and lacking effective unemployment insurance systems,
many people often have no choice but to work in order to support
themselves and their families
Thus the major challenge is underemployment and working
poverty
Low unemployment rates alone do not appear to correlate with development performance in Indonesia
…while other measures (i.e formal employment) better indicating development performance (in terms of peal capita RGDP)
Source: Tadjoeddin, M. Z (forthcoming).
Vulnerable employment also closely correlated with labour productivity in ASEAN+3
Source: ILO, Labour and Social Trends in ASEAN 2008.
The current MDG framework recognizes the critical issue of quality jobs for poverty reduction and development…
MDG1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, Target B (‘full and productive employment and decent work’)
1.4 Growth rate of GDP per person employed
1.5 Employment-to-population ratio
1.6 Proportion of employed people living below $1 (PPP) per day
1.7 Proportion of own-account and contributing family workers in total employment (“vulnerable employment”
MDG3 Promote gender equality and empower
women
3.2 Share of women in wage employment in the non-
agricultural sector
…as does the emerging vision on the post 2015 development agenda
Report of the High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post-2015 Development
Agenda (“A New Global Partnership: Eradicate Poverty and Transform Economies through
Sustainable Development (Chaired by Dr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf
and David Cameron)
Transform economies for jobs and inclusive growth: “This is a challenge for every
country on earth: to ensure good job possibilities while moving to the sustainable patterns of
work and life that will be necessary in a world of limited natural resources.”
Illustrative goals and targets:
Concluding thoughts
In addition to underemployment and working poverty, heterogeneity of employment types have increased in recent decades, underscoring the importance of targeting beyond employment quantity
BPS already collects data on time-related involuntary underemployment, vulnerable employment, informal/formal employment, should further consideration be given to qualitative employment targets in addition to quantitative targets
Employment projections models serve as important analytical tools to monitor progress towards employment targets
Need for models to also address both the quantity and quality of
employment
ASIAN DECENT WORK DECADE 2006-2015
Decent Work for All
For more information, please contact:
Kee Beom Kim (kim@ilo.org)
ILO Decent Work Technical Support Team
For East and South-East Asua and the Pacific
www.ilo.org/asia
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