enabling sep 13, 2016 low carbon...
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EnablingLowCarbonCommuni1es
Therolesofsmartplanningtoolsandplace-basedsolu1ons
ChrisJones,Ph.D.Director,CoolClimateNetworkProgramChair,BECCConferenceUniv.ofCalifornia,Berkeley
ISEEEnergy2030Sep13,2016
WeiM,Nelson,J.H,GreenblaQ,J.B.,Mileva,A.,Johnston,J.,Ting,M.,Jones,C.M.,Yang,C.,McMahon,J.E.,Kammen,D.M.,Deepcarbonreduc-onsinCaliforniarequireelectrifica-onandintegra-onacrosseconomicsectors.EnvironmentalResearchLeQers(8)014038
Mee1ngCalifornia’s2050GHGreduc1ontarget
0"
100"
200"
300"
400"
500"
600"
700"
GHG#Em
ission
s#[Mt#C
O2eq]#
Increased)Efficiency:"por&olio"of"measures"in""buildings,"transporta5on,"and"industry;""electricity"decoupling"
Low1GHG)Electricity:"low:GHG"loading"order,"renewable"energy,"fossil"fuels"with""carbon"capture"and"storage,"nuclear"
Hea6ng)Electrifica6on:"water"and""space"hea5ng"in"buildings,"some"industrial"processes"
Vehicle)Electrifica6on:"plug:in"hybrid"and"ba>ery""electric"vehicles,"including"cars,"trucks,"buses"and"trains"
Low)1GHG)Biofuels:"cellulosic"ethanol"and"advanced"biofuels""
Conserva6on:"less"driving,""more"reuse"and"recycling"
2050##Reference##
Case#
2050##Compliant##
Case#
############Policy#Landscape#"""""""Long"term"targets"needed"""""""Long"term"targets"and""""""""accelerated"implementa:on""""""""needed"""""""No"enabling"policy"framework""""""""
43%"
27%"
16%"
36%"
35%"16%"
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Mee#ngCalifornia’s80%GHGReduc#onTargetby2050
GeneralizedLearningCurve
GeneralizedLearningCurve
2020203020402050
WeiM,Nelson,J.H,GreenblaQ,J.B.,Mileva,A.,Johnston,J.,Ting,M.,Jones,C.M.,Yang,C.,McMahon,J.E.,Kammen,D.M.,Deepcarbonreduc-onsinCaliforniarequireelectrifica-onandintegra-onacrosseconomicsectors.EnvironmentalResearchLeQers(8)014038
ElectricityDemandunder80%GHGReduc#onScenario
Spheres of influence
6 A Socio-Ecological Model of Human Behavior Adapted from Bronfenbrenner’s Ecological Framework for Human Development
PublicPolicy
Communi1es
Organiza1ons
Interpersonal
Individual
motor fuel (direct)
air travel
vehicle mfg
natural gas snack food
meat
dairy
fruits & veg.
furniture & appliances
clothing
health care
motor fuel production
auto. maintenan.
electricity production
fuel production
w ater / w aste
construction
grains / bakery
entertainment
medicalpersonal care
personalentertainment
charitymisc.
education
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2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
motor fuel (direct)
air travel
vehicle mfg
natural gas snack food
meat
dairy
fruits & veg.
furniture & appliances
clothing
health care
motor fuel production
auto. maintenan.
electricity production
energy indirect
w ater / w aste
construction
grains / bakery
entertainment
medicalpersonal care
personalentertainment
charitymisc.
education
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
Carbon footprint of average U.S. household 50 metric tons carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) per year
Source: coolclimate.berkeley.edu Jones & Kammen (2011)
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2
4
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10
12
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Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
Carbon footprint of average global household 10 metric tons carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) per year
8
Source: coolclimate.berkeley.edu Jones & Kammen (2011)
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
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Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
Average global household under climate stabilization 2 metric tons carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) per year
9
Source: coolclimate.berkeley.edu Jones & Kammen (2011)
motor fuel (direct)
air travel
vehicle mfg
natural gas snack food
meat
dairy
fruits & veg.
furniture & appliances
clothing
health care
motor fuel production
auto. maintenan.
electricity production
fuel production
w ater / w aste
construction
grains / bakery
entertainment
medicalpersonal care
personalentertainment
charitymisc.
education
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
motor fuel (direct)
air travel
vehicle mfg
natural gas snack food
meat
dairy
fruits & veg.
furniture & appliances
clothing
health care
motor fuel production
auto. maintenan.
electricity production
energy indirect
w ater / w aste
construction
grains / bakery
entertainment
medicalpersonal care
personalentertainment
charitymisc.
education
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
Carbon footprint of average U.S. household 50 metric tons carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) per year
10
Source: coolclimate.berkeley.edu Jones & Kammen (2011)
motor fuel (direct)
air travel
vehicle mfg
natural gas snack food
meat
dairy
fruits & veg.
furniture & appliances
clothing
health care
motor fuel production
auto. maintenan.
electricity production
fuel production
w ater / w aste
construction
grains / bakery
entertainment
medicalpersonal care
personalentertainment
charitymisc.
education
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
Previous studies: • Fuel processing • Fuel transport/storage • Power plant construction Our study: • Procurement • Full supply chain LCA
energyindirect
motor fuel (direct)
air travel
vehicle mfg
natural gas snack food
meat
dairy
fruits & veg.
furniture & appliances
clothing
health care
motor fuel production
auto. maintenan.
electricity production
energy indirect
w ater / w aste
construction grains / bakery
entertainmentmedical
personal care
personal
entertainmentcharitymisc.
education
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
Carbon footprint of average California household 47 metric tons CO2e per year
11
Source: coolclimate.berkeley.edu Jones & Kammen (2011)
motor fuel (direct)
air travel
vehicle mfg
natural gas snack food
meat
dairy
fruits & veg.
furniture & appliances
clothing
health care
motor fuel production
auto. maintenan.
electricity production
energy indirect
w ater / w aste
construction
grains / bakery
entertainmentmedical
personal care
personalentertainment
charitymisc.
education
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
Carbon footprint of average St. Louis household 49 metric tons CO2e per year
12
Source: coolclimate.berkeley.edu Jones & Kammen (2011)
motor fuel (direct)
air travel
vehicle mfg
natural gas snack foodmeatdairy
fruits & veg.
furniture & appliances
clothing health care
motor fuel production
auto. maintenan.
electricity production
energy indirectw ater / w asteconstruction
grains / bakery
entertainmentmedicalpersonal carepersonalentertainmentcharitymisc.education
-
5
10
15
20
25
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
1-person CA household: $10k/yr Carbon footprint: 16 tCO2e/yr
13
Source: coolclimate.berkeley.edu Jones & Kammen (2011)
motor fuel (direct)
air travel
vehicle mfg
natural gas snack foodmeatdairy
fruits & veg.
furniture & appliances
clothing health care
motor fuel production
auto. maintenan.
electricity production
energy indirectw ater / w asteconstruction
grains / bakeryentertainment
medicalpersonal care
personalentertainment
charitymisc.education
-
5
10
15
20
25
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
1-person CA household: $45k/yr Carbon footprint: 31 tCO2e/yr
14
Source: coolclimate.berkeley.edu Jones & Kammen (2011)
motor fuel (direct)
air travel
vehicle mfg
natural gas snack food
meatdairy
fruits & veg.
furniture & appliances
clothing
health care
motor fuel production
auto. maintenan.
electricity production
energy indirectw ater / w aste
construction
grains / bakery entertainmentmedical
personal care
personalentertainment
charitymisc.
education
-
5
10
15
20
25
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
2-person CA household: $70k/yr Carbon footprint: 51 tCO2e/yr
15
Source: coolclimate.berkeley.edu Jones & Kammen (2011)
motor fuel (direct)
air travel
vehicle mfg
natural gas snack food
meat
dairy
fruits & veg.
furniture & appliances
clothing
health care
motor fuel production
auto. maintenan.
electricity production
energy indirectw ater / w aste
constructiongrains / bakery
entertainmentmedical
personal care
personalentertainment
charitymisc.
education
-
5
10
15
20
25
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
3-person CA household: $70k/yr Carbon footprint: 55 tCO2e/yr
16
Source: coolclimate.berkeley.edu Jones & Kammen (2011)
motor fuel (direct)
air travel
vehicle mfg
natural gas snack food
meat
dairy
fruits & veg.
furniture & appliances
clothing
health care
motor fuel production
auto. maintenan.
electricity production
energy indirect
w ater / w aste
construction grains / bakery
entertainmentmedical
personal care
personalentertainment
charitymisc.
education
-
5
10
15
20
25
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
4-person CA household: $70k/yr Carbon footprint: 61 tCO2e/yr
17
Source: coolclimate.berkeley.edu Jones & Kammen (2011)
motor fuel (direct)
air travel
vehicle mfg
natural gas snack food
meat
dairy
fruits & veg.
furniture & appliances
clothing
health care
motor fuel production
auto. maintenan.
electricity production
energy indirect
w ater / w aste
construction
grains / bakery
entertainmentmedicalpersonal care
personalentertainment
charitymisc.
education
-
5
10
15
20
25
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
mt C
O2e
/yr
4-person St. Louis household: $70k/yr Carbon footprint: 64 tCO2e/yr
18
Source: coolclimate.berkeley.edu Jones & Kammen (2011)
23
TypicalCaliforniaSchool
But,doesinforma1onchangebehavior?
PublicPolicy
Communi1es
Organiza1ons
Interpersonal
Individual
CoolCalifornia Challenge
25
Sponsored by:
26
Theore#calFounda#onforCompe##ons:Whydotheywork?1. Compara#veFeedback:letpeopleknowhowwelltheyaredoingvs.peers
2. Norms:provideinforma1ononwhatothersaredoingandexpectedbehavior
3. Collabora#on&Compe##on:fostercollabora1onwithingroupstomeetgoals;friendlycompe11onbetweenout-groups
4. SocialDiffusion:spreadadop1onthroughexis1ngsocialnetworks
5. Gamifica#on:earningpointsforsmalltasksand“levelingup”increasesenjoymentoftakingac1ons
6. Incen#ves:recogni1onandtangiblerewardsprovideposi1vefeedbackforaccomplishments
7. Visibility:Visibleac1onsaremoremo1va1ngthaninvisibleac1ons
8. Self-efficacy:byworkingtogetherpeoplefeelliketheycanmakemeaningfulcontribu1onstoaddressclimatechange
Vine,E.,andJones,C.M.(2015)
Electricityconsump1onoftreatmentvs.controlgroupTotalsavings=14%
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!"!!
!100!!
!200!!
!300!!
!400!!
!500!!
!600!!
!700!!
Marchl2012!
April2012!
May2012!
June2012!
July2012!
August2012!
September2012!
October2012!
November2012!
December2012!
January2013!
February2013!
March2013!
April2013!
kWh!
CONTROL'
TREATMENT'
Source:JonesandKammen(2014)
Davis is the “Coolest California City” 2014
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Riverside is the “Coolest California City” 2015
ARBBoardMemberBarbaraRiordan,RiversideMayorRustyBailey,ARBBoardMemberJudyMitchell,&ARBChairmanMaryD.Nichols
Claremont is the “Coolest California City” 2016
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PrimaryMo1va1onstoPar1cipatebyDemographics
Highlights
• 20,000students,staffandfacultyat10campuses(5%oftotalpop.)• >100,000stories&25,000photossubmiQed• >$1Minenergysavings• Cost:$100,000
“Iusedtobescaredoftakingthebusonlybecauseofthescheduleandrunninglate.Buttakingitwithagroupoffriendsmakesiteasier!”
“Meandmyfriendshavestartedcarpoolingwheneverwegooff-campusforfoodorshopping.Wealsohavestartedridingbikes(whichishardinthecoldweather),butwemanage!”
“Alwayswearinglongsleeves,sweaters,andjacketswhenit'scold.”
“AllofmyroommateshaveLEDlamps.Thatwasoneofthethingsthatallofusbondedover.Wetrytoconserveasmuchenergyaspossible.”
Spheres of influence
38 A Socio-Ecological Model of Human Behavior Adapted from Bronfenbrenner’s Ecological Framework for Human Development
PublicPolicy
Communi1es
Organiza1ons
Interpersonal
Individual
39Source:JonesandKammen(2014)Env.Sci&Tech.
HouseholdcarbonfootprintsinEastCoastMetropolitanAreas
40
41
CBEIProducts
42
• Inventorytables&graphsatregional,county,andcityscale• MapsshowingGHGfootprintatfine-grainedlocalscale
metric tons CO2e / household
Motor Vehicle Fuel
HouseholdGHGEmissionsfromTransporta#onbyBlockGroup
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!70!!
!80!!
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BRISBA
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SAN!BRU
NO!
DALY!CITY!
SOUTH
!SAN!FRA
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MILLBRA
E!
SAN!M
ATEO!
PACIFICA
!
REDWOOD!CITY!
BELM
ONT!
LA!HONDA!
SAN!CARLOS!
HALF!M
OON!BAY!
MEN
LO!PARK
!
BURLINGAME!
MOSS!BEA
CH!
PORT
OLA
!VALLEY!
ATH
ERTO
N!
STANFO
RD!
CAMPB
ELL!
ALV
ISO!
MOUNTA
IN!VIEW!
SANTA
!CLA
RA!
SUNNYV
ALE!
SAN!JO
SE!
GILRO
Y!
MILPITA
S!
PALO
!ALTO!
MORG
AN!HILL!
CUPE
RTINO!
LOS!GATO
S!
SAN!M
ART
IN!
SARA
TOGA!
LOS!ALTOS!
SF! SAN!MATEO! SANTA!CLARA!
metric!tons!CO2e!!per!hou
seho
ld!
San!Francisco!&!South!Bay!CiUes!"!Average!Household!Carbon!Footprint!
Services!
Goods!
Food!
Housing!
TransportaUon!
44
MajorLessons&Recommenda#ons• GHGreduc1onopportuni1esvarygreatlybyloca1on,demographics,sector
• Behaviorchangeatscalecanbecost-effec1ve….ornot(enablingsorwarecanhelp)
• Localgovernmentsshouldincorporateconsump1on-basedinventories&percapitatargets
• 80%GHGreduc1onfromconsump1onperspec1venotpossible–perhaps50%max
• ThemixofGHGmi1ga1onopportuni1esdependsonstrengthoftarget
• FoodbecomeslargestsourceofGHGemissionsunderaggressiveGHGmi1ga1on
• Pop.densifica1ongenerallynoteffec1veinsuburbs;focusonurbancores&controlsprawl
• Nearcompleteelectrifica1onofvehiclesandhea1ngneededtomeet80%reduc1ontarget
• MethodscalestoallU.S.ci1es,coun1esandstates
Citedreferences:
Vine, Edward L., and Christopher M. Jones. "Competition, carbon, and conservation: Assessing the energy savings potential of energy efficiency competitions." Energy Research & Social Science 19 (2016): 158-176.
Christopher M. Jones and Daniel M. Kammen. A Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Inventory of San Francisco Bay Area Neighborhoods, Cities and Counties: Prioritizing Climate Action for Different Locations. Report prepared for the Bay Area Air Quality Management District. December 15, 2015.
Christopher M. Jones and Daniel M. Kammen. The CoolCalifornia Challenge: A Pilot Inter-City Household Carbon Footprint Reduction. Report prepared for the California Air Resources Board under contract 10-325. November 2014. 90 pages.
Christopher M. Jones and Daniel M. Kammen, Spatial Distribution of U.S. Household Carbon Footprints Reveals Suburbanization Undermines Greenhouse Gas Benefits of Urban Population Density. Environ. Sci. Technol., 2014, 48 (2), pp 895–902.
Christopher M. Jones and Daniel M. Kammen, Quantifying Carbon Footprint Reduction Opportunities for U.S. Households and Communities. Environ. Sci. Technol., 2011, 45 (9), pp 4088–4095
WeiM,Nelson,J.H,GreenblaQ,J.B.,Mileva,A.,Johnston,J.,Ting,M.,Jones,C.M.,Yang,C.,McMahon,J.E.,Kammen,D.M.,Deepcarbonreduc-onsinCaliforniarequireelectrifica-onandintegra-onacrosseconomicsectors.EnvironmentalResearchLeQers(8)014038
Thankyou
cmjones@berkeley.edu
53
Mo1va1onClimatechangeistheresultofcountlessdailyac1onsbybillionsofpeople,embeddedincomplexeconomic,socialandculturalsystems.Howcanhumanitymassivelyscaleuptheadop1onofawiderangeoflowcarbontechnologiesandprac1cestoverydiversepopula-ons,eachwiththeirownvalues,mo1va1ons,barriers,opportuni1es,abili1esandcompe1ngpriori1es.
CoolClimateVisionSmartToolsforaCoolerPlanet
Acceleratethetransi1ontoacleanenergyeconomythroughsmartgreenhousegasdecision-makingtoolsandprogramsSmarttoolsandprograms:• ProduceSMARTrecommenda1ons(specific,measurable,achievable,relevant,1me-bound)• Mo1vatebehaviorchange(e.g.,feedback,norms,messaging,socialdiffusion…)• Arvullydesigned(user-friendly,aesthe1callypleasing)• Responsivetouserinput(engaging,learning)• Tailoredtospecificaudience(smartdefaults)
PublicPolicy
Communi1es
Organiza1ons
Interpersonal
Individual
Modeledvs.ActualResultShowsEfficiencyofEachLoca#on(policy+behavior)
R²=0.61
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
- 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000
kWhpe
rhou
seho
ld(P
G&E)
kWhperhousehold(CoolClimateModel)
AveragekWhperhouseholdbyzipcodeCoolClimatevs.PG&Edata(2013-14)
AMeasureofTechnicalPoten#alforEnergyEfficiency(electricityonly)?
R²=0.61
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
- 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000
kWhpe
rhou
seho
ld(P
G&E)
kWhperhousehold(CoolClimateModel)
AveragekWhperhouseholdbyzipcodeCoolClimatevs.PG&Edata(2013-14)
TechnicalPoten1al:~30%atmeanusage
AMeasureofAchievablePoten#alforEnergyEfficiency(electricityonly)?
R²=0.61
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
- 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000
kWhpe
rhou
seho
ld(P
G&E)
kWhperhousehold(CoolClimateModel)
AveragekWhperhouseholdbyzipcodeCoolClimatevs.PG&Edata(2013-14)
AchievablePoten1al(1SD):~20%atmeanusage
• CBEIis~35%largerthanproduc1on-basedinventory• GHGfootprintisgenerallylowerinurbancoreareas-smallerhomes,lowervehicleownershiprate,beQertransit
• Varia1onbetweenblockgroups:ra1oof7to1• Varia1onwithin(largeci1es):ra1oof4or5to1• Varia1onbetweenci1es:ra1oof3to1• Lessvaria1onbetweencoun1es:-averageannualGHGfootprintrangesfrom39to49metrictonsperhousehold
BayAreaGHGFootprint
58
Natural Gas
tCO2e / household
A. Electricity
B. Natural Gas
59
Largevaria1oninsizeandcomposi#onofGHGfootprintCoolClimateNetworkmodelincludes30+factorsBut6factorsaccountfor92%ofvaria1oninGHGfootprint:• vehicleownershiprate• householdincome• householdsize(#people)• sizeofhome(squarefootageofdwellingunit)• carbonintensityofelectricity• popula1ondensityofneighborhood
KeyFactors
60
TopPolicyRecommenda#ons
1. IncorporateCBEIinClimateAc1onPlans2. Urbaninfill:directfuturedevelopmenttoareaswithlowGHGs3. Promoteelectricvehicles(especiallyinhigh-VMTareas)4. Promotehealthydiets(e.g.,schoolprograms,meatlessMondays)5. Requireelectrichea1nginnewhomes6. Promotesustainableconsump1on:shirfromgoodstolocalservices7. Promoteefficienthomesize:e.g.,taxincen1vesforsmallerhomes8. Behaviorchangeprograms(e.g.,energyreduc1oncompe11ons)9. Promotelow-carbonprocurementdecisionsinlocalbusinesses10. Adopt50%by2050percapitaconsump1on-basedGHGtarget
CBEIMethodology• Expenditureprofilesforaveragehouseholdineachofthe~4,700
CensusblockgroupsinBayArea–thenscaleup• Localinputdata:
• Electricity&naturalgas(byzipcode…modifiedtoblockgroup)• Other:pubictransit,fueleconomy,recycing/compos1ng• Censusdata&weather
• Modelingusingna1onalhouseholdsurveys(BayArearespondents)• ConsumerExpendituresSurvey• Na1onalHouseholdTravelSurvey• Residen1alEnergyConsump1onSurvey
• Life-cycleGHGemissionfactorsforthe“Kyoto6”setofGHGs-IndirectEmissions:ComprehensiveEnvironmentalDataArchive-BayArea-specificemissionsfactors(water,LCSF) 62
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